Flash Flood Warning 63, NWS Fort Worth, TX

685 
WGUS74 KFWD 131950
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
250 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXC221-132245-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-150513T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOOD TX-
250 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
HOOD COUNTY...

AT 246 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN 
ACROSS THE COUNTY. FLASH FLOODING WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS.

HOOD COUNTY HAS RECEIVED CONSIDERABLE RAINFALL IN THE PAST WEEK... 
AND THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON WILL REAGGRAVATE FLOODING 
ISSUES. SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN GRANBURY...AND 
THE CREEKS AND STREAMS THAT FEED THE LAKE ARE LIKELY TO FLOOD AS 
WELL.

THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF BY 4 PM...BUT RUNOFF WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 
THE AFTERNOON COMMUTE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 9762 3232 9762 3232 9778 3224 9794
      3251 9807 3256 9807

$$

25

347 
WGUS74 KFWD 132142
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
442 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXC221-132245-
/O.CON.KFWD.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-150513T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOOD TX-
442 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR
HOOD COUNTY...

AT 436 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED MULTIPLE HOMES 
INUNDATED WITH WATER OR BEING THREATENED BY WATER WITHIN THE CITY OF 
GRANBURY...AS WELL AS AN ONGOING SWIFT WATER RESCUE AT STROUD CREEK. 
UP TO ONE AND ONE HALF INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN...BUT MINIMAL 
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO 
CONTINUE.

FLOOD WATERS ARE COVERING SEVERAL CITY STREETS WITHIN GRANBURY AS 
WELL AS COUNTY LOW WATER CROSSING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3255 9762 3232 9762 3232 9778 3224 9794
      3251 9807 3256 9807

$$

AJS

563 
WGUS74 KFWD 132250
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
550 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXC221-132257-
/O.EXP.KFWD.FF.W.0063.000000T0000Z-150513T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
HOOD TX-
550 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HOOD COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A SIGNIFICANT THREAT. THE ONLY ONGOING FLOODING CONCERNS ARE 
ASSOCIATED WITH TYPICAL LOW WATER CROSSINGS. A FOOT AND A HALF OF 
WATER STILL EXISTS OVER STROUD CREEK AVENUE...AND SUNSET ACRES COURT 
IS IMPASSIBLE AT THIS TIME.

DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3255 9762 3232 9762 3232 9778 3224 9794
      3251 9807 3256 9807

$$

AJS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1243 PM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

.SHORT TERM...
A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SO FAR...LIGHTNING HAS BEEN LIMITED TO
AREAS ALONG THE COLORADO RIVER AREA OVER OUR SOUTHWEST
COUNTIES...AS WELL AS SOME STRIKES NOW INCREASING OVER JOHNSON AND
TARRANT COUNTIES. THE FIRST AREA IS WHERE WE CONTINUE TO SEE
HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES WITHIN THE LARGER AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP...AND
THE SECOND AREA IS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RAIN SHIELD WHERE
SCATTERED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ON THE INCREASE. DUE TO RECENT
RAINFALL...IT WILL NOT TAKE A WHOLE LOT OF RAIN TO
GENERATE FLOODING...AND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO
EXIST...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST COUNTIES WHERE THE BEST
INSTABILITY RESIDES.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS WITH PREVAILING RAIN WILL CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL LOCATIONS AS A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE AREA. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN TO INCREASE ALONG THE
LEADING EDGE...BUT SO FAR COVERAGE HAS REMAINED FAIRLY LOW. WE
WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP CONTAINING 3 TO 4 HOURS OF LOWER
VISIBILITIES WITH THUNDER AND MODERATE RAIN...WITH THE EXPECTATION
THAT EMBEDDED CELLS WILL ACCOMPANY THE BROAD SWATH OF STRATIFORM
RAIN. ALL ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION THIS EVENING AS
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE ONGOING DEVELOPMENT LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON JUST WEST OF THE REGION AS
GOOD SURFACE HEATING TAKES PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE DRYLINE.
THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST...BUT SHOULD REMAIN JUST WEST OF TAF
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE AS
PRECIP ENDS THIS EVENING...BUT WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING.

30

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015/
THE 07Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL TEXAS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S WHILE THEY WERE IN THE LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
ALOFT...WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED THAT A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH WAS MOVING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO. RADARS SHOW A LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO
WEST TEXAS AS LARGE SCALE LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE.

EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO SPREAD EAST TODAY
MOVING INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER DAYBREAK
AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF REGION TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
AND POTENTIAL TRAINING AS INDIVIDUAL STORMS MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST
WHILE THE WHOLE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSES
EASTWARD. THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED
TO EXTEND THROUGH AT 1 AM THURSDAY.

A POTENTIAL PROBLEM THAT WAS NOTED BY THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
DISCUSSION IS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT
DOES...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S WILL SPREAD INTO
THE AREA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH CAPES WILL NOT BE EXTREMELY
HIGH...ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG...LCLS WILL BE LOW. THESE
INCREASED INSTABILITIES AND SHEAR MAY BE A SET UP FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW-TOPPED HIGH-PRECIPITATION SUPERCELLS THAT COULD
PRODUCE TORNADOES ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN ZONES
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

BESIDES THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES IN THE SOUTHEAST...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...RAIN CHANCES WILL DECREASE.
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
STORM MOVES INTO THE WEST COAST...WE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE
20 TO 40 PERCENT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE WEST COAST SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY
MORNING EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY. AS
IT DOES...WE SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY...KEEPING US IN GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. THUS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

58

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  73  66  83  68  82 / 100  80  30  20  40
WACO, TX              75  67  84  68  82 / 100  60  30  20  40
PARIS, TX             72  65  81  67  81 /  70  80  30  20  50
DENTON, TX            71  66  82  68  82 / 100  80  30  20  40
MCKINNEY, TX          73  66  82  67  81 / 100  80  30  20  40
DALLAS, TX            73  66  83  69  83 / 100  80  30  20  40
TERRELL, TX           75  67  83  68  83 /  90  70  30  20  40
CORSICANA, TX         75  68  84  68  82 /  90  60  30  20  40
TEMPLE, TX            75  67  84  68  82 / 100  50  30  20  40
MINERAL WELLS, TX     71  64  82  67  82 / 100  70  20  30  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
418 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-140930-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
418 AM CDT WED MAY 13 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
TEXAS UNTIL 1 AM TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD OVER MUCH OF NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.
FLASH FLOODING AND AREAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
MERIDIAN TO CANTON FROM EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH 9 PM THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL RETURN ON SATURDAY WITH AREAS
WEST OF A LINE FROM NOCONA TO LAMPASAS HAVING THE BETTER CHANCES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED SOUTH OF A MERIDIAN TO CANTON
LINE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.