Flash Flood Warning 176, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
349 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...
3 TO OVER 7 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL TEXAS SINCE 7 AM THURSDAY. THE MIDDLE SULPHUR RIVER NEAR
COMMERCE GAUGE /MSCT2/ IN HUNT COUNTY HAS RECORDED 10.13 INCHES OF
RAIN DURING THE 24 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 130 PM CDT.

FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
36 HOURS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 12Z KFWD SOUNDING
WERE PLUS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS. THERE ARE SEVERAL INGREDIENTS
THAT CONTINUE TO INDICATE A GOOD SET UP FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING/FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS STREAMING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM HURRICANE PATRICIA THAT WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
MANZANILLO LATER TODAY. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WILL ALSO
ENHANCE LIFT.

AS OF MID AFTERNOON...AREAS FROM SHERMAN TO FORT WORTH TO
BRECKENRIDGE NORTHWESTWARD WERE RECEIVING A BREAK FROM THE RAIN
BUT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHEAST INTO THAT REGION BY THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-20
CORRIDOR THROUGH 7 AM SUNDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES
EXPECTED TO THE SOUTH OF I-20.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHWARD LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS
COAST AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. LOW RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH
THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

58

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 110 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015/
/18Z TAFS/

NOW THAT THE SECOND MORNING ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA HAS PAST EAST OF
DFW AIRPORTS...NEXT CONCERN WILL BE TIMING THE NEXT ROUND EITHER
LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. WACO/S CONCERNS INCLUDE
PERSISTENCE OF CURRENT TSRA W/+RA AND WHEN ANY BREAKS WILL OCCUR
WITH TIMING OF TONIGHT/S ACTIVITY ANOTHER DIFFICULT CHALLENGE.
OTHERWISE...CIGS FLUCTUATING BETWEEN VFR AND IFR TO CONTINUE
BEING PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. TIMING THE SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT IN THE EXTENDED PERIODS WILL ALSO BE CHALLENGING FOR
SWITCHING TO PERMANENT NORTH FLOW.

LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES WEST OF THE AREA WITH RIPPLES
OF ENERGY EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST FROM FAR WEST
TEXAS AND MEXICO. WITH MOISTURE NEAR MAXIMUM FOR LATE OCTOBER WE
EXPECT FEW MORE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION WITH AT TIMES INTENSE
RAINFALL AND/OR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. HURRICANE
PATRICIA NEAR MAZATLAN OFF THE WESTERN MEXICAN COAST WILL ALSO
ADD TO THE MIX LATER THIS WEEKEND...BUT THE INTENSE SURFACE LOW
AND COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AIRPORTS BY THE TIME
ANY EFFECTS FROM PATRICIA SHOULD OCCUR.

DFW...
WILL CARRY VFR WITH VCSH THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...BEFORE INTRODUCING
THE NEXT ROUND OF TSRA W/+RA INTO THE MIX. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN
MOSTLY MVFR WITH THIS SECOND RD COMING TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY +RA. ESE WINDS 5-7 KTS
SHOULD BECOME SE 10-15 KTS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AS A SURFACE
LOW DEEPENS OVER MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS. TIMING ANY ROUNDS BEYOND
THE FIRST 12 HRS IS DIFFICULT WITH SUCH A LARGE SYSTEM AND WILL
MAINTAIN SHRA/VCTS FOR SIMPLICITY/S SAKE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

WACO...
HOW LONG TO PERSIST CURRENT TSRA W/+RA REMAINS UNCERTAIN...BUT
FOR NOW THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON APPEARS REASONABLE.
AFTERWARD...WILL FOLLOW WITH SHRA WORDING WITH VCTS. ESE WINDS 10
TO 15 KTS SHOULD PREVAIL MOST OF THE PERIOD.

05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  68  71  59  69  57 / 100 100  60  40  20
WACO, TX              69  74  61  70  58 / 100 100  80  40  20
PARIS, TX             67  72  59  70  56 / 100  90  70  60  30
DENTON, TX            67  69  57  68  54 / 100 100  60  30  10
MCKINNEY, TX          68  70  58  69  56 / 100 100  60  40  20
DALLAS, TX            68  72  60  69  59 / 100 100  60  40  20
TERRELL, TX           68  73  60  70  57 / 100 100  70  50  30
CORSICANA, TX         68  76  62  71  59 /  90 100  80  50  30
TEMPLE, TX            69  74  61  70  59 /  90 100  80  40  20
MINERAL WELLS, TX     66  69  55  68  53 / 100 100  50  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR TXZ091>095-100>107-
115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175.

&&

05/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
334 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241200-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-NAVARRO-
FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-LIMESTONE-
LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
334 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIFT BACK
NORTH TOWARD THE I-20 CORRIDOR TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS WEST TEXAS
WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING AS WELL. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE ALONG AND A
HUNDRED MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE...TO
WAXAHACHIE...TO SULPHUR SPRINGS.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 6 INCHES WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD RUN OFF AND FLASH FLOODING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY
DOWNBURST WINDS... SMALL HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 THROUGH MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTAINING HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION. THE AXIS
OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 SATURDAY NIGHT. LINGERING HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES WILL CONTINUE EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 AND SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 ON SUNDAY...BEFORE RAIN CHANCES SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. DUE TO SATURATED
SOILS...RUN OFF WILL OCCUR QUICKLY AND PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING
WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...REPORT
FLOODING AND FLASH FLOODING TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
245 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0242 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 E MOODY               31.32N  97.27W
10/23/2015                   MCLENNAN           TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NB & SB I-35 CLOSED MILE MAKERS 314 TO 316 DUE TO HIGH
            WATER AT BRUCEVILLE-EDDY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

TXZ135-148-232145-
ANDERSON TX-HENDERSON TX-
400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

...SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...

AT 359 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 15
MILES SOUTH OF MALAKOFF...OR 16 MILES SOUTH OF ATHENS...MOVING EAST
AT 40 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ATHENS...MALAKOFF...FRANKSTON...BERRYVILLE...TRINIDAD...COFFEE
CITY...POYNOR AND MOORE STATION.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 9598 3184 9600 3187 9597 3187 9600
      3195 9602 3195 9604 3198 9606 3200 9605
      3208 9606 3208 9611 3210 9612 3215 9611
      3220 9546 3215 9548 3204 9542 3203 9544
      3196 9545 3193 9542 3185 9545 3184 9543
TIME...MOT...LOC 2059Z 269DEG 33KT 3197 9592

AJS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MALAKOFF                32.17N  96.02W
10/23/2015  E9.88 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SINCE 9PM THURSDAY 10/22/2015

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
408 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0407 PM     HEAVY RAIN       MALAKOFF                32.17N  96.02W
10/23/2015  E6.88 INCH       HENDERSON          TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SINCE 9PM THURSDAY 10/22/2015