Alert archive / Iowa / Winter Storm Watches in 2015

Winter Storm Watch 2, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

November 18, 20157 counties in South Dakota; 11 counties in Iowa; Dakota County, Dixon County, Nebraska

NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued this winter storm watch at Nov 18, 2015, 3:10 PM CST for 7 counties in South Dakota; 11 counties in Iowa; Dakota County, Dixon County, Nebraska. It took effect at Nov 20, 2015, 6:00 AM CST. It was in force for .

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 18, 2015, 3:10 PM CST (21:10 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 20, 2015, 6:00 AM CST
Expired
Nov 20, 2015, 4:13 AM CST
In force
Issued by
NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Counties Buena Vista County, IA, Cherokee County, IA, Clay County, IA, Dickinson County, IA, Ida County, IA, Lyon County, IA, O'Brien County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Plymouth County, IA, Sioux County, IA, Woodbury County, IA, Dakota County, NE, Dixon County, NE, Bon Homme County, SD, Clay County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, Turner County, SD, Union County, SD, Yankton County, SD

The radar

The Sioux Falls radar (KFSD), 79 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Omaha, NE (KOAX), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 181 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2015-11-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Omaha, NE at 12:00Z on 2015-11-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -86 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
580 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
12 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
-16 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

798 
WWUS43 KFSD 182110
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015


IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-190515-
/O.NEW.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
DIXON-DAKOTA-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...
HARTLEY...SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...YANKTON...VERMILLION...
NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
310 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF I29 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND
  SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY NOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
  GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
  MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

SCHUMACHER
5 follow-up statements
364 
WWUS43 KFSD 190332
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
932 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-191145-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
DIXON-DAKOTA-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...
HARTLEY...SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...YANKTON...VERMILLION...
NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
932 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF I29 EARLY FRIDAY MORNING 
  AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY NOON. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED 
  TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
268 
WWUS43 KFSD 190923
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
323 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

IAZ001>003-SDZ065>068-191730-
/O.EXA.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...
MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR
323 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. 

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING. SNOW
  MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-191730-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
DIXON-DAKOTA-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...
HARTLEY...SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK...WAKEFIELD...
PONCA...ALLEN...SOUTH SIOUX CITY...YANKTON...VERMILLION...
NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
323 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING. SNOW
  COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
  HOURS. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
399 
WWUS43 KFSD 192144
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
344 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015


NEZ013-014-SDZ068>071-200545-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1200Z-151121T0300Z/
DIXON-DAKOTA-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...
SOUTH SIOUX CITY...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...
TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
344 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9
PM CST FRIDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING. SNOW
  WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
  HOURS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 7 INCHES

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-200545-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1500Z-151121T0600Z/
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...
HARTLEY...SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK
344 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT
CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM
FRIDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING. SNOW
  WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON
  HOURS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 TO 8 INCHES

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

SDZ050-063-064-200545-
/O.NEW.KFSD.WW.Y.0010.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
GREGORY-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREGORY...BURKE...WAGNER...PLATTE...
LAKE ANDES...MARTY...ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT
344 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM CST
FRIDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND END FRIDAY
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND 5 INCHES

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO A HALF MILE AT
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-SDZ065>067-200545-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...
MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG
344 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE MORNING. SNOW
  MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON
  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO ONE HALF MILE AT
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
497 
WWUS43 KFSD 200334
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
934 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015


NEZ013-014-SDZ068>071-201145-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1200Z-151121T0300Z/
DIXON-DAKOTA-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...
SOUTH SIOUX CITY...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...
TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...BERESFORD...
ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
934 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 9 PM CST
FRIDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL
  BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
  HOURS. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES...AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVIER. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-201145-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1500Z-151121T0600Z/
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...
HARTLEY...SANBORN...SPENCER...LE MARS...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK
934 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM FRIDAY TO
MIDNIGHT CST FRIDAY NIGHT...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP MID TO LATE MORNING. SNOW WILL
  BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES DURING THE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS.
  SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES...AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVIER.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
  MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. IN ADDITION...NORTHEAST WINDS
  OF 15 TO 25 MPH COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

SDZ050-063-064-201145-
/O.CON.KFSD.WW.Y.0010.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
GREGORY-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREGORY...BURKE...WAGNER...PLATTE...
LAKE ANDES...MARTY...ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT
934 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM
CST FRIDAY...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND END FRIDAY 
  EVENING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO A HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-SDZ065>067-201145-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK...
PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...
MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG
934 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM CST FRIDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP WEST OF INTERSTATE 29 EARLY FRIDAY
  MORNING...AND SPREAD INTO NORTHWEST IOWA BY MID TO LATE MORNING.
  SNOW MAY BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE LATE MORNING AND
  AFTERNOON HOURS. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH
  FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 7 INCHES. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON 
  EXACTLY HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO ONE HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$$
304 
WWUS43 KFSD 201013
WSWFSD

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015


SDZ063-064-201815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WW.Y.0010.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
/O.EXB.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WAGNER...PLATTE...LAKE ANDES...MARTY...
ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND END THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO A HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

$$

SDZ065>067-201815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKSTON...FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...
PARKER...CENTERVILLE...MARION...VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...
CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...HARRISBURG
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND END THIS
  EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO ONE HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

IAZ001>003-201815-
/O.UPG.KFSD.WS.A.0002.151120T1200Z-151121T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1500Z-151121T0300Z/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...SPIRIT LAKE...MILFORD...ARNOLDS PARK
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO
LONGER IN EFFECT.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND
  CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES. 

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO ONE HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW
ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN AN
EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA
FLASHLIGHT...FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN
EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

SDZ068>071-201815-
/O.EXT.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...
AVON...TABOR...YANKTON...VERMILLION...NORTH SIOUX CITY...
BERESFORD...ELK POINT...ALCESTER...JEFFERSON
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID MORNING AND
  CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 8 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

IAZ012-013-020-NEZ013-014-201815-
/O.EXT.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1500Z-151121T0300Z/
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-PLYMOUTH-DIXON-DAKOTA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ORANGE CITY...SIOUX CENTER...SHELDON...
HARTLEY...SANBORN...LE MARS...WAKEFIELD...PONCA...ALLEN...
SOUTH SIOUX CITY
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
  AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 9 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE HALF
  MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

IAZ014-021-022-031-032-201815-
/O.CON.KFSD.WS.W.0004.151120T1500Z-151121T0600Z/
CLAY IA-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SPENCER...CHEROKEE...STORM LAKE...
SIOUX CITY...IDA GROVE...HOLSTEIN...BATTLE CREEK
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING
TO MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING
  AND CONTINUE INTO LATE THIS EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...7 TO 9 INCHES...AMOUNTS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVIER.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO LESS THAN ONE 
  HALF MILE AT TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. IN ADDITION...
  NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH COULD CAUSE SOME BLOWING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.  SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$

MNZ089-090-098-SDZ062-201815-
/O.EXB.KFSD.WW.Y.0010.151120T1500Z-151121T0300Z/
NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-MINNEHAHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...
LUVERNE...SIOUX FALLS
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO
9 PM CST THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS
MORNING TO 9 PM CST THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN BY MID MORNING AND END FRIDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO A HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SDZ057>061-201815-
/O.EXA.KFSD.WW.Y.0010.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CHAMBERLAIN...KIMBALL...PLANKINTON...
WHITE LAKE...STICKNEY...MITCHELL...ALEXANDRIA...EMERY...SALEM...
CANISTOTA...BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SIOUX FALLS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST
THIS EVENING.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND END FRIDAY 
  EVENING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO A HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

SDZ050-201815-
/O.CON.KFSD.WW.Y.0010.151120T1200Z-151121T0000Z/
GREGORY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GREGORY...BURKE
413 AM CST FRI NOV 20 2015

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS
EVENING...

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN EARLY IN THE MORNING AND END FRIDAY 
  EVENING. 

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 6 INCHES.

* WIND AND VISIBILITY...VISIBILITY MAY DROP TO A HALF MILE AT 
  TIMES DUE TO FALLING SNOW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW
WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW
COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE
DRIVING.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this winter storm watch went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Sioux Falls, SD wrote its last area forecast discussion before this winter storm watch went out at Nov 18, 1:09 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 18, 1:09 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
109 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

BAND OF PRECIP...WITHIN TROWAL OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING
NORTH-NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR WESTERN IOWA THIS MORNING...HAS BEEN
FAIRLY WELL-BEHAVED THUS FAR THIS MORNING. LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW OF
DRIER AIR HOLDING WESTERN EXTENT OF PRECIP NEAR DE SMET TO LAKE
ANDES LINE. EXPECT THIS WESTERN EDGE TO SLOWLY WORK EASTWARD THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE LIFTS INTO MINNESOTA AND ASSOCIATED TROWAL
SHIFTS EAST OF I-29. CANNOT COMPLETELY REMOVE POPS FROM OUR WESTERN
AREAS THOUGH...AS APPROACHING NORTHERN STREAM WAVE AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT WILL KEEP POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS OUR WEST
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CHANCE WILL DIMINISH WITH PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT...SLATED TO ENTER OUR FAR WEST IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND
PUSH THROUGH FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY EARLY EVENING. WITH
WESTERN EDGE OF PRECIP SHIELD FARTHER EAST THAN EARLIER THOUGHT...
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW IS EVEN MORE LIMITED AND SHOULD SEE LITTLE IF ANY
SNOW IN OUR AREA WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY.

POST-FRONTAL CONCERNS TURN TO WINDS...WIND GUSTS IN PARTICULAR AS
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40-45KT MIXED LAYER WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES AS COLD AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO THE AREA AFTER 21Z...
EVEN STRONGER IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GREGORY COUNTY. STRONGEST
COLD ADVECTION SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH 03Z THIS EVENING
AND ANTICIPATE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER THAT TIME. HOWEVER
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP AGAIN THURSDAY MORNING...WILL CARRY
WIND ADVISORY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG/WEST OF KBKX-KYKN LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALL THE WAY THROUGH TONIGHT. LOWER CONFIDENCE EAST OF THIS
LINE THAT WINDS WILL REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING. THUS DECIDED TO HOLD OFF START OF ADVISORY FOR
THESE AREAS UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK THURSDAY. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE TO
REEVALUATE THIS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WHERE HIGHER
ELEVATION MAY FAVOR ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS REACHING THE SURFACE DURING
THE NIGHT.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...EXPECT LITTLE MOVEMENT TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIP HOLDING READINGS PRETTY STEADY. EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
THE WEST WHERE DRIER AIR HAS ALLOWED FOR MORE COOLING THIS MORNING
AND POST-FRONTAL MIXING SHOULD BRIEFLY WARM READINGS INTO THE UPPER
40S THIS AFTERNOON. STEADY DOWNWARD FALL BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD OFF THE LONGER RANGE PERIOD.
GFS AS PER USUAL HAS SOMEWHAT BETTER MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AND THUS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THE LOWEST PROFILE COMPARED TO
NAM/SREF/ECMWF. EVEN IF A BIT TOO STRONG...45 TO 50 KNOT WINDS ATOP
THE MIXED LAYER...AND A DECENT 30 TO 40 KNOTS AT THE MID POINT MAKE
FOR A SOLID WIND ADVISORY...AND AS LONG AS HIGHER LOCATIONS DO NOT
START EARLIER...WILL GO WITH AN 8 AM START TIME AVERAGING BETWEEN
MORE AND LESS EXPOSED AREAS.  SHOULD GET A FAIRLY MARKED DECREASE IN
WINDS AFTER 21-22Z AS MIXING ATTEMPTS TO HOLD ON TO A RAPIDLY
WEAKENING SUPPORT NEAR SURFACE...WITH NO HELP FROM DIURNAL CYCLE AT
THAT POINT. FAIRLY CONSISTENT 925 HPA TEMP FORECAST BETWEEN MODELS
SUGGESTS UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S FOR HIGHS.

WINDS MOST AREAS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING...WITH
EXCEPTION OF PARTS OF SW MN...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIRMASS
HELPING TEMPS TO FALL QUICKLY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH GENERALLY
CLOUDY SKIES MOST AREA BY DAYBREAK. TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY LEVEL OFF OR
RISE A BIT LATER NIGHT IN THE WEST...ESPECIALLY THE FAR SOUTHWEST
WHERE COULD START TO SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW TOWARD DAYBREAK.

TO SAY THERE IS A BIT OF DIVERSITY WITH FRIDAY SYSTEM IS REALLY
MAKING A MOLEHILL OUT OF A MOUNTAIN. JET STREAK CURRENTLY WELL OUT
TO THE EDGE OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL BE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW
INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. GIVEN THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN...
MUCH MORE LIKELY TO GET A MORE SOUTHWARD SOLUTION PER GFS/CANADIAN
AND TO A LESSER DEGREE THE MODERATE ECMWF...COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF
AND OTHER DERIVATIVES. HAVE DESIGNED FORECAST OFF BLEND OF THE MORE
SOUTHERN SOLUTIONS...BUT EVEN THEN...A VAST DIFFERENCE IN TIMING
WITH GFS PRACTICALLY FINISHING UP THE PRECIPITATION IN THE EAST AS
ECMWF IS REALLY JUST GOING WELL. KEPT THINGS MORE ON A MID TIMING
PER ECMWF/CANADIAN.

AS FAR AS FORECAST DETAILS...COOL AND QUITE DRY AIRMASS WILL BE IN
PLACE AT LOWER LEVELS TO BEGIN ON FRIDAY...WITH WELL DEFINED MID
LEVEL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. FRONTOGENESIS REACTS TO
APPROACHING UPPER JET STREAK...WITH LIFT PROFILES WELL PLACED IN THE
DENDRITIC ZONE.  NO REASON TO EXPECT ANYTHING OTHER THAN A SOLID
PRECIPITATION FORM WITH WET BULB QUICKLY MAKING ANY NEAR SURFACE
WARM LAYER A MEMORY. NOT VERY UNSTABLE ABOVE THE FRONTAL ZONE...SO
NOT LOOKING FOR RATES TO GET OUT OF HAND.  SNOWFALL ALONG THE BAND
SHOULD REALLY START ENHANCING BY MID MORNING...WITH BROAD BANDING
NEAR/NORTH OF THE MISSOURI RIVER INTO NORTHWEST IOWA. MAX PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...BEFORE EASTWARD SHIFT OF
BETTER FRONTAL DYNAMICS AS WELL AS THE EROSION FROM RENEWED
NORTHERLY FLOW.  ON THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY WOULD BE A BIT MORE
AMPLIFICATION OF SYSTEM AND PERHAPS A BIT OF A PIVOT DEVELOPING NEAR
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE CWA. THIS COULD ENHANCE AMOUNTS EVEN A
BIT MORE TOWARD HIGHWAY 20...BUT FOR NOW AM GENERALLY LOOKING FOR 2
TO 5 INCH BAND OF SNOWFALL SOUTH OF A WAGNER TO SPENCER IOWA LINE.
ONCE MORE CONSISTENCY IN RUNS APPEARS...WOULD EXPECT THAT MAY BE
DEALING WITH THE FIRST WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR THE SEASON. DRY
AIR TO NORTH COULD EASILY RESULT IN A SHARPER NORTHERN CUTOFF TO
SNOW...BUT ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE/LIFT OVER THE DRIER LOW LEVELS
TO WARRANT AT LEAST LIKELY POPS TO JUST NORTH OF I 90...WHERE
AMOUNTS COULD REACH AROUND AN INCH.

FOLLOWING EXIT OF SYSTEM ON FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE INFLUX OF THE
COLDEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON...850 HPA TEMPS -12 TO -14C BY
SATURDAY. HAVE TRENDED TEMPS GENERALLY DOWNWARD FROM INITIAL BLEND
THROUGH SAT NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THOSE AREAS EXPECTING SNOWFALL.
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME LOCATIONS COULD GET FAIRLY CLOSE
TO ZERO ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN GRADIENT EASES.

SUNDAY WILL START MODERATING TREND...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE UNABATED
THROUGH MIDWEEK AS UPPER LEVELS ONCE AGAIN REARRANGE TO THE FAMILIAR
WESTERN TROUGH/PLAINS RIDGE. WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE THROUGH AROUND
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...BUT LITTLE MORE THAN A BETTER MIXING
SET UP TO AID IN WARMING.  WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW QUICKLY ANY
SNOWCOVER WILL GO AWAY...AND VERY WELL MAY REQUIRE SOME SLOWING OF
WARMING TREND OVER THOSE MINOR CHANGES ALREADY MADE. BY
WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ENOUGH DURATION TO SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RETURN
THREAT FOR STRATUS/FOG WITH A LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST WED NOV 18 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN...WITH BRIEF PERIODS OF
SNOW AND IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...WILL EXIT NORTHWEST IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ038>040-050-052>055-
     057>061-063>065-068.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR SDZ056-062-066-
     067-069>071.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ071-072-080-
     081-089-090-097-098.

IA...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR IAZ001>003-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM CST THURSDAY FOR NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...CHAPMAN
AVIATION...08
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 18, 5:55 AM CST, 9 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
555 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

IAZ012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ069>071-191200-
SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-
DIXON-DAKOTA-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
555 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY...AVERAGING 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO 45 MPH BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY THURSDAY
EVENING.

SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...PEAKING BY MIDDAY
BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FRIDAY EVENING. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND EXACT LOCATION...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
A SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM 2 TO 5 INCHES TO OCCUR SOUTH OF A
LESTERVILLE TO SPENCER IOWA LINE...GREATEST NEAR HIGHWAY 20.
TRAVEL WILL BECOME DIFFICULT AS ROADWAYS BECOME SNOW COVERED
AND SLIPPERY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ001>003-MNZ089-090-098-SDZ062-066-067-191200-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-
LINCOLN SD-
555 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 TO 50 MPH BY MIDDAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE
BY THURSDAY EVENING.

SNOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY MORNING...AND GRADUALLY END BY FRIDAY
EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

MNZ071-072-080-081-097-SDZ056-191200-
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-PIPESTONE-MOODY-
555 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND WILL AVERAGE 30 TO
40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH BY LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL DECREASE
THURSDAY EVENING.

A LIGHT ACCUMULATION OF SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY...MAINLY
SOUTH OF A FLANDREAU TO COMFREY LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SDZ038>040-052>055-191200-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-
555 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT TO AROUND 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
SUSTAINED FROM 30 TO 35 MPH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. WINDS WILL
DECREASE QUICKLY BY THURSDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

SDZ050-057>061-063>065-068-191200-
GREGORY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-
555 AM CST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...GUSTING AT TIMES
THROUGH TONIGHT TO AROUND 45 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...AVERAGING 30 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH. WINDS WILL DECREASE QUICKLY BY
THURSDAY EVENING.

A PERIOD OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ACCUMULATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 COULD REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES...GREATEST NEAR THE
NEBRASKA BORDER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Sioux Falls, SD issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 18, 3:52 AM CSTWind AdvisoryFSDAurora, Beadle, Bon Homme, Brookings, Brule, Charles Mix and 18 more38 hr

Nearby

Winter Storm Watches in Iowa, 2015Winter Storm Watches in South Dakota, 2015Winter Storm Watches in Nebraska, 2015Every winter storm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.