Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

491 
WWUS53 KFSD 280117
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
817 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

SDC005-111-280145-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0077.000000T0000Z-150628T0145Z/
BEADLE SD-SANBORN SD-
817 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN BEADLE AND NORTHWESTERN SANBORN COUNTIES...

AT 815 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HURON...MOVING
SOUTH AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 803 PM CDT GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL 
WAS REPORTED 2 MILES EAST OF WOOLSEY. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  HURON AND VIRGIL AROUND 820 PM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS STORM IS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 4412 9832 4414 9833 4420 9833 4420 9837
      4439 9848 4449 9826 4425 9796
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 338DEG 25KT 4437 9835 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

HANKO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

IN THE NEAR TERM...A FEW SHOWERS ARE TRYING TO GET GOING...MOST
NOTABLY SOUTHEAST OF YANKTON WITH NO LIGHTNING DETECTED YET. THE
UPDRAFTS ARE STRUGGLING TODAY WHEN COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AFTERNOON
AS SUBTLE UPPER RIDGING MOVES ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN
FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE DIVING DOWN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. QG FORCING IN THE 700-500MB LAYER BRINGS THE
CRUX OF THE WAVE ALONG AN AXIS FROM NEAR BROOKINGS TO STORM LAKE IA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THEREFORE WAS NOT IN A BIG HURRY TO USHER IN
POPS TONIGHT...EVEN FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN ZONES. STILL AGREE WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THAT HIGH POPS ARE WARRANTED...IN THE LIKELY OR
CATEGORICAL CATEGORIES GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED AXIS. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...OUR WESTERN
ZONES WEST OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH THE
JAMES VALLEY ONLY RECEIVING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

SEVERE CHANCES ARE A LITTLE PROBLEMATIC TO ASCERTAIN. BOTH ML CAPES
AND ELEVATED MU CAPES IN THE 925-850MB LAYER ARE RATHER THIN
TONIGHT...WITH BOTH ELEMENTS REMAINING BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG.
DESPITE A DECENTLY VEERING WIND PROFILE...THE LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW
IN THE LOWEST KILOMETER AND THIN CAPES MAY HELP IN KEEPING UPDRAFTS
ONLY MODESTLY ROBUST AND NOT ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN A LARGE HAIL THREAT.
SO THE BIGGER SEVERE THREAT MAY COME FROM ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AS MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE RATHER HEFTY...AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR WINDS AVERAGING
50 TO 55 KNOTS IN OUR NORTHEAST ZONES. BUT AT THIS TIME...LEFT THE
MENTION OF SEVERE OUT OF THE GRIDS AS IT MAY BE TOO ISOLATED...
ESPECIALLY BY THE TIME THE WAVE HITS OUR FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE
LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD AVERAGE IN THE LOWER 60S. SUNDAY WILL BE A
RATHER BREEZY DAY BEHIND THE WAVE...WITH STRONG MIXING POTENTIAL
GIVING HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NORTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
GOOD MIXING ON MONDAY WILL ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
MID 80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE AREA. A SHORTWAVE DROPS THROUGH THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA AND IOWA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. A COUPLE
OF MODELS INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IN OUR FAR EAST ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH KEPT IT DRY
FOR NOW WITH BETTER DYNAMICS OFF TO THE EAST.

ON TUESDAY MODELS STILL SHOWING A BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
THE CWA. WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS...AND THERE WILL BE A WIDE
RANGE OF TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE ARE WITH A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW EAST
OF INTERSTATE 29 AND AN EVOLVING SOUTHERLY FLOW IN OUR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS LOOK TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S THROUGH SOUTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA TO AROUND 90 THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT A SHORTWAVE SLIDES INTO THE REGION...BRINGING A BETTER
CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS ALL TRENDING TO
BETTER CHANCES IN OUR SOUTHWEST...THOUGH DIFFERING ON HOW FAR
SOUTHWEST THIS BAND SETS UP. THE ECMWF IS MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE SYSTEM...AND MODEL DIFFERENCES CARRY INTO WEDNESDAY WHEN THE
ECMWF LIFTS THE CONVECTION OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...WHILE THE
GFS/GEM HAS US RAIN FREE. WEDNESDAY DOES LOOK COOLER HOWEVER IN AN
EASTERLY FLOW...WITH HIGHS 70S TO NEAR 80.

FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...THEN DRYING
OUT FOR THE CLOSE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO SIT CLOSE TO
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS DROPPING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE MAINLY EAST OF A HON TO FSD TO SLB
LINE. A FEW STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
HAVE ADDED TSRA MENTION IN THE HON AND FSD TAF...HOWEVER RIGHT NOW
IT APPEARS THAT STORMS WILL NOT IMPACT SUX.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
653 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-SDZ038>040-053>056-060>062-066-067-070-071-281200-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-
NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-SANBORN-
MINER-LAKE-MOODY-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
CLAY SD-UNION-
653 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO AREAS ALONG HIGHWAY 14
TOWARD SUNSET...THEN TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE OR WIND
GUSTS TO 60 MPH...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS BETWEEN 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THESE TIMES IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

NEZ013-014-SDZ050-052-057>059-063>065-068-069-281200-
DIXON-DAKOTA-GREGORY-JERAULD-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-CHARLES MIX-
DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-YANKTON-
653 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST
NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
AGAIN THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER DURING THESE TIMES IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.