Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

821 
WWUS53 KFSD 220903
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
403 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

SDC003-035-061-220930-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-150622T0930Z/
DAVISON SD-AURORA SD-HANSON SD-
403 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR DAVISON...SOUTHEASTERN AURORA AND HANSON COUNTIES...

AT 403 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ETHAN...OR 9
MILES SOUTH OF MITCHELL...MOVING EAST AT 70 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ALEXANDRIA AROUND 410 AM CDT.
  EMERY AROUND 420 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4371 9853 4373 9761 4350 9761 4350 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0903Z 276DEG 59KT 4361 9797 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BT

170 
WWUS53 KFSD 220928
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
428 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

SDC003-035-061-220938-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-150622T0930Z/
DAVISON SD-AURORA SD-HANSON SD-
428 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR DAVISON...SOUTHEASTERN AURORA
AND HANSON COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 AM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 AM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4371 9853 4373 9761 4350 9761 4350 9853
TIME...MOT...LOC 0926Z 270DEG 49KT 4361 9797 

$$

BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
337 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

THE TWO SHORT WAVES...ONE MOVING ACROSS ND AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND THE OTHER MOVING ACROSS SD...HAVE INDEED PHASED TOGETHER AS
EXPECTED. CONVECTION HAS LIT UP LIKE A CHRISTMAS TREE AT THIS TIME
ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL SD...WITH THE STORMS MOVING
RAPIDLY EASTWARD. WIND IS STILL THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THE 700MB
FLOW AROUND 45 KNOTS. AND AS SAID YESTERDAY...WE STILL HAVE A 50 TO
55 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET IN NEBRASKA FEEDING INTO 25 TO 30 KNOTS ACROSS
THE SIOUX FALLS FORECAST AREA PROVIDING NOT ONLY GOOD INFLOW FOR THE
STORMS BUT ALSO STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE. THERE IS A COUPLE OF
THINGS TO CONSIDER HOWEVER WHICH COULD POTENTIALLY LIMIT SOME WIND
POTENTIAL. FIRST...THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW LEVEL JET DOES BEND TO A
WSW DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT BY 12Z...WHERE AS NOW IT IS
MORE OUT OF THE SW AND SSW. THEREFORE SOME OF THE STRONGEST INFLOW
COULD ACTUALLY GET CUTOFF VERY LATE TONIGHT AS THE STORMS APPROACH I
29. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THE DEPTH OF THE TEMPERATURE
INVERSION. IT IS NOT TOO BAD THROUGH 09Z OR 10Z...AVERAGING A DEPTH
OF AROUND 1 KM...SHALLOW ENOUGH THAT THE WIND CAN PUNCH THROUGH. BUT
BY 12Z...THE INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACCORDING TO THE MODELS CLOSER TO
A DEPTH OF 1.5 KM WITH A SHARPER INVERSION...WHICH THE ACTIVITY BY
THEN WILL BE CLOSE TO I 29. SO THESE FACTORS WILL NEED WATCHED. WITH
BULK SHEAR VECTORS AROUND 50 TO 60 KNOTS...SURE AM THINKING THAT
SEVERE WIND IS A THREAT.

OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE DAY WILL SEE DECREASING CLOUDS...AND MILD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST WINDS
ARE A LITTLE STRONGER TODAY THEN THEY WERE ON SATURDAY. BUT GOOD
MIXING WILL STILL ALLOW FOR STRONG WARMING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT MON JUN 22 2015

TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
ACROSS THE REGION. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFF
TO THE EAST...MODELS SUGGEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE WOULD INCREASE TO
THE POINT THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WOULD BE UNSTABLE LIFTING FROM NEAR
700 MB.  LEFT A LOW CHANCE POP THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...
NEAR SIOUX CITY...WITH BETTER CHANCES OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE.

WITH THAT SAID. ...CONVECTION CHANCES ARE STILL FAR FROM A GUARANTEE
AS PRIMARY WARM FRONT LOOKS TO BE SITUATED FURTHER TO THE SOUTH
ALONG I-80 WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  IF
CONVECTION IS ABLE DEVELOP WITH THESE TWO FEATURES...WILL LIKELY BE
LEFT HIGH AND DRY LIKE THE ECMWF SUGGESTS.

WEDNESDAY IS CONDITIONAL...BUT HAVE A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH IN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THOUGH THERE IS A
SIZABLE CAP THAT NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME.  FOR NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS IN
THE MID RANGE.

FLOW PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS STRONG UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. WITH WEAK WAVES SLIDING THROUGH THE FLOW...WILL KEEP
LOW PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE
JUNE...WITH HIGHS LARGELY IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND HAIL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90...CLOSEST TO
MIDNIGHT TO 2 AM NEAR KHON AND 3 AM TO 6 AM AROUND KFSD. AFTER
THIS CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND WINDS WILL LIKELY GUST TO 25
TO 30 MPH AT TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MJ
LONG TERM... /JH
AVIATION...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

SDZ038>040-052>061-222330-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-
AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP SOUTHEAST...LIKELY FORMING INTO A LINE. THE
HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM ABOUT
MIDNIGHT TO 3 AM WHEN WINDS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF
HALF DOLLARS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ001>003-012>014-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ062-
065>067-222330-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-LINCOLN MN-
LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-MINNEHAHA-
HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE
BETWEEN 2 AM AND 6 AM. THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS
WILL BE WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

IAZ020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-SDZ050-063-064-068>071-222330-
PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-GREGORY-
CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
629 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER 3 AM. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 MPH AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.