Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

440 
WWUS53 KFSD 200631
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
131 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

SDC003-015-023-043-053-073-200700-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0057.000000T0000Z-150620T0700Z/
DOUGLAS SD-GREGORY SD-BRULE SD-JERAULD SD-AURORA SD-CHARLES MIX SD-
131 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN DOUGLAS...NORTHWESTERN GREGORY...BRULE...JERAULD...
AURORA AND NORTHWESTERN CHARLES MIX COUNTIES...

AT 128 AM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 7 MILES NORTH OF GANN VALLEY TO NEAR IONA...MOVING
EAST AT 60 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THESE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  GRASS RANCH COLONY AROUND 155 AM CDT.

AT 128 AM...CHAMBERLAIN AWOS MEASURED A WIND GUST TO 60 MPH. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THESE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE
PUKWANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION. THESE STORMS ARE PRODUCING WIDESPREAD 
WIND DAMAGE ACROSS WESTERN BRULE COUNTY. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A 
STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4350 9952 4350 9930 4358 9934 4365 9936
      4366 9938 4365 9945 4367 9947 4370 9941
      4378 9941 4379 9936 4386 9931 4391 9936
      4393 9936 4393 9893 4420 9893 4420 9839
      4343 9838 4339 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 256DEG 53KT 4414 9903 4352 9935 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

BT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1230 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

CONCERN FOR THE SHORT RANGE FORECAST IS FOCUSED ON TIMING OF SEVERE
CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...AS WELL AS THE DEGREE OF WIND EXPECTED WITH
DEVELOPING SYSTEM TONIGHT.

IN THE IMMEDIATE TERM...ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FESTER ALONG
LINGERING MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION ALONG THERMAL AXIS IN WAKE OF
THE EARLIER MCS. JAMES VALLEY HAS BEEN THE GRADIENT IN ELEVATED
INSTABILITY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH STORMS WEAKENING AS SOON AS
THEY PROGRESS TO THE EAST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KNOTS ABOVE
A MORE STABLE SURFACE LAYER MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO ORGANIZE INTO
MULTICELL/SUPERCELL CLUSTER.  WRF-ARW HAS BEEN FAIRLY RELIABLE IN
TERMS OF CONVECTIVE MODE THUS FAR...AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT AS
CURRENT CLUSTER OF CELLS WORKS SOUTHEASTWARD LATE AFTERNOON...WILL
SOON WEAKEN AND LEAVE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF QUIET CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE EVENING.

STRONG JET MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON. AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA...EXPECT CONVECTION TO INITIATE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. MODE WILL EVOLVE DURING THE EVENING ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS. A BIT HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN ORGANIZING A HIGHER END SYSTEM WITH THE INCREASE IN
MODEL SUGGESTED 0-3KM SHEAR TO AROUND 40 KTS. DAMAGING WIND WOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGEST THREAT...PERHAPS UP TO 80 MPH IN
NORTHERN/WESTERN CWA. EARLY IN EVENT AND ALONG PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT
ZONE ALONG THE SOUTHERN FLANK SHOULD ALSO FIND A LARGE HAIL
THREAT...HALF DOLLAR TO PING PONG SIZED...WITH GOOD INFLOW AT 850
HPA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG. THREAT SHOULD
BECOMING INCREASINGLY WIND WEIGHTED HEADING TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST.

WITH HIGH RATE OF MOTION EXPECTED OF SYSTEM...PERHAPS 45 TO 50 KNOTS
AT THE PEAK DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT IF CAN PUT FULL
FAITH IN MOTION VECTORS...THE TOTAL RAINFALL WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED...AND DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...
RATES WILL END UP QUITE EFFICIENT FOR A SHORT TIME...AND COULD LEAD
TO SOME RAPID PONDING IN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

STABILIZATION IN WAKE OF MCS LIKELY TO KEEP ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING MIDDAY ALONG SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST
IOWA. WILL BECOME A FAIRLY BREEZY DAY AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. GOOD MIXING AND
GRADUAL REMOVAL OF ANY POST MCS STABLE CLOUD FIELD SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO PUSH WELL INTO THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHICH SHOULD SUPPRESS THE
INSTABILITY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. THUS WILL ONLY HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE AROUND GREGORY COUNTY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE PEASANT IN THE LOWER 60S.

SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AND MID LEVEL
FORCING WILL ALSO INCREASE SO WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED
POPS IN BOTH PERIODS. INSTABILITY A LITTLE MORE IMPRESSIVE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT SO ANY SEVERE THREAT WOULD BE BETTER THEN. ANOTHER DAY WITH
HIGHS LIKELY IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S.

AS THE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY SHOULD HAVE A MUCH LOWER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH.

IN THE OUTER PERIODS (TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...FAST WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT LATE
IN THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE WEST. THIS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND ALSO KEEP
TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL. AT THIS TIME TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH
DECREASING CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SURGE OF COOLER AIR AS NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED THERE
COULD BE A PRETTY WARM DAY AND RIGHT NOW THE BEST CHANCE FOR THAT
LOOKS LIKE DAY 7...FRIDAY...SO NOT GOING TO GET TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH THAT FORECAST JUST YET.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING EASTWARD IN CENTRAL SD AT THIS TIME.
WENT AHEAD AND KEPT THE MENTION OF TSRA FOR THE KHON AND KFSD TAF
SITES BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FOR THE 06Z TAF SET. INCLUDE WIND AS A
THREAT...EITHER VIA CONVECTION OR A STRONG WAKE LOW PRESSURE
CENTER WHICH IS CURRENTLY NEAR FAITH SD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE HURON
TAF SITE. WILL OBVIOUSLY MONITOR THE WIND THREAT...BUT DID ALSO
INCLUDE A MVFR MENTION WITH THE TSRA BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SHORT TERM IFR CONDITIONS IF THE RAIN IS HEAVY ENOUGH.
HUMIDITY TIME SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS ALSO STRONGLY HINT AT MVFR
CEILINGS EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AT KHON SO INCLUDED THAT
POSSIBILITY. FOR NOW...LEFT TSRA OUT OF THE KSUX TAF SITE AS THERE
IS A CHANCE THE ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THERE. WILL MONITOR
THAT CLOSELY ALSO.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

SDZ038>040-052>062-202130-
BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-
AURORA-DAVISON-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS AREAS
NEAR HIGHWAY 14...FROM HURON TO BROOKINGS...THROUGH 6PM. HAIL UP
TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE.

HOWEVER...A LARGER COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
ORGANIZE THIS EVENING ACROSS NORTHWEST AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND PRESS EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
THIS SECOND AREA OF STORMS MAY ARRIVE IN AREAS FROM HURON TO
CHAMBERLAIN BETWEEN 10 PM AND 12 AM...AND PEAK IN THE POST
MIDNIGHT HOURS. WHILE DAMAGING WIND IS THE GREATEST THREAT...A FEW
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL UP TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE. A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO LIKELY WITH STORMS...WHICH COULD OVERWHELM
SOME POOR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT BETWEEN 10 PM AND 4 AM.

IAZ001>003-012>014-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ050-
063>071-202130-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-LINCOLN MN-
LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-GREGORY-
CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-
YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. STORMS...AS THE MOVE EASTWARD TOWARD INTERSTATE 29...AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA...ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL
AND BRIEF GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...AND PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATER THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND TO 70
MPH OR HIGHER...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO
QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...WHICH MAY LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY FROM MIDNIGHT TO 4 AM.

IAZ020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-202130-
PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-
421 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATER THIS EVENING...AND PUSH EAST AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE GREATER THREAT
WITH THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POCKETS OF DAMAGING WIND TO 70
MPH...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO QUARTER TO HALF
DOLLAR SIZE. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FOUND
ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90S.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF NEXT WEEK...THOUGH AT THIS TIME THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
IS UNCERTAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
738 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0734 PM     HAIL             1 S LUVERNE             43.64N 96.21W
06/19/2015  E1.00 INCH       ROCK               MN   PUBLIC

&&

AF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
805 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 2015

...TIME...  ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
...DATE...  ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0754 PM     HAIL             ELLSWORTH               43.52N 96.02W
06/19/2015  E1.75 INCH       NOBLES             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

AF