Severe Thunderstorm Warning 157, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

246 
WWUS53 KFSD 160440
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SDC067-160515-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-150816T0515Z/
HUTCHINSON SD-
1140 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1215 AM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY...

AT 1140 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR TRIPP...OR
NEAR PARKSTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  TRIPP AROUND 1150 PM CDT.
  KAYLOR AROUND 1215 AM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE OLIVET.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4317 9808 4318 9807 4320 9811 4344 9802
      4335 9765 4317 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0440Z 312DEG 14KT 4330 9795 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

WEISSER

163 
WWUS53 KFSD 160506
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

SDC067-160516-
/O.EXP.KFSD.SV.W.0157.000000T0000Z-150816T0515Z/
HUTCHINSON SD-
1206 AM CDT SUN AUG 16 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN HUTCHINSON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1215 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN
IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4317 9808 4318 9807 4320 9811 4344 9802
      4335 9765 4317 9763
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 312DEG 14KT 4330 9795 

$$

WEISSER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1054 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

UPPER RIDGE STARTING PROCESS OF BEING FLATTENED BY A COUPLE OF
WAVES...THE FIRST SLIDING NORTH OF THE REGION THIS EVENING.
CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY HAS PROGRESSED THROUGH WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...APPROACHING CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. SHALLOW MIXED LAYER
MOISTURE AND GOOD WARM SURGE INTO THE SD CWA...WITH LOW LEVEL JET
SURFACED WITH GUSTS 25 TO 30 KNOTS.

CONCERN HEADING INTO THE EVENING IS DETERMINING THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT. WILL HAVE TO RELY ON STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING...AS STRONG CAP IN PLACE
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. STILL HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT SCHISM BETWEEN THE
HIGH RESOLUTION AND SOME OF THE LOWER RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS AS TO
WHETHER THIS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR SO EARLY...BUT BELIEF NOW IS THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL INITIATE CLOSER TO THE HIGH
RESOLUTION SET BY 00Z-02Z WEST OF THE CWA. MEAN FLOW WILL WORK TO
TAKE STORMS OFF THE BOUNDARY AND EASTWARD INTO THE WARM LAYER ALOFT
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. WOULD EXPECT THAT STORMS MAY TEND TO
STRUGGLE A BIT HEADING LATER IN THE NIGHT.  COVERAGE OF STORMS IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE EXTREME
WARM LAYER ALOFT.  ANY SEVERE THREAT TONIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE LIMITED
TO WEST OF A BROOKINGS TO TYNDALL LINE...AND MOSTLY FARTHER
NORTH/WEST THAN THAT. SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS WOULD BE THE
PRIMARY THREAT...AS TOASTY TEMPS ALOFT AND THE RELATIVE LACK OF
STRONGER INSTABILITY PROFILES SHOULD PRECLUDE MOST OF THE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL RISK.

ELEVATED MIXED LAYER REMAINS SUNDAY...AND COULD SEE SOME SKITTISH
ACCAS AROUND DURING THE MORNING...BUT IN GENERAL THE LARGER SCALE
FORCING TAKES A HIATUS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD
LIES WITH SEVERE STORMS POTENTIAL. THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE
SOMEWHAT GREATER THAN EARLIER EXPECTATION AS BOUNDARY SLOWS UP
ACROSS THE HEART OF THE CWA IN WAIT FOR THE LARGER DYNAMIC FORCING
COMING IN LATE DAY.  END ALL POSITION AND THE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT WILL DEPEND ON DEBRIS/OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER
OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING STORMS CONTAMINATING THE DESTABILIZATION
PROCESS...AND WHATEVER ADDITIONAL PUSH TO CONVERGENCE BOUNDARIES
WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE MIDDAY HOURS. STRONGER UPPER FORCING WILL
COME OUT IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE START OF BREAKING DOWN THE
WARMER TEMPS ALOFT AS WELL. DEEP SHEAR IS FAIRLY WEAK...AND ACTUALLY
SHOULD SEE THE STRONGEST SHEAR IN THE 0-1KM LAYER...ENHANCED EVEN
MORE NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. HAVE NUDGED UP THE HEATING AND
MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...BOLSTERED INSTABILITY WITH
THE DEGREE OF LIFT FORCING WOULD FAVOR MORE WIDESPREAD STORMS...AND
EVEN SOME DEGREE OF SEVERE WEATHER IN TERMS OF HAIL/WIND/TORNADO
THREAT MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I 90 BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE DISCRETE...WITH FRONTAL FORCING
GRADUALLY TRANSITIONING TO LINEAR. EARLY IN THE LIFE CYCLE WOULD
HAVE ANY TORNADO THREAT...BUT MOSTLY A WIND THREAT AND LESSER ON
LARGER HAIL GIVEN AGAIN THE LACK OF THICK THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME
CONCENTRATED OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...WITH RAIN ENDING
IN THE NORTHWEST. THIS DECREASE WITH FRONTAL MOVEMENT JUST TO THE
SOUTH WILL CONTINUE MONDAY BUT WITH A FEW LINGERING FAR SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH AND A STRONG WAVE WILL APPROACH MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY...LEADING TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS BY
TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LINGERING SHOWERS WILL DECREASE
SLOWLY WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.

FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO WEDNESDAY...EXPECT TOTAL
RAINFALL OF AN INCH AND A HALF TO 3 OR 4 INCHES OVER THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL GET COOL...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CLOUDS AND RAIN
PUTTING A CLAMP ON DAYTIME HIGHS. 70S MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
ONLY MID 60S TO LOWER 70S BY WEDNESDAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE SLOWER BUT WILL CERTAINLY BE BELOW NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SHOULD START DRY WITH PERHAPS A
SHOWER/STORM THREAT BY SATURDAY. THE USUAL RECENT DIVERSITY IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS DO NOT LEND TO DECENT CONFIDENCE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE EC WANTS TO START REBUILDING THE UPPER RIDGE QUICKLY WHILE THE
GFS DOES IT STRONGLY BUT QUITE A BIT MORE SLOWLY. SOME WARMING IS
LIKELY FROM OUR COOL MIDWEEK BUT WILL KEEP IT MODEST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE
VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR...EXCEPT IN THE
STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS...THE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. TO START...FROM
ABOUT 6Z THROUGH 14Z OR SO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
POSSIBLE. SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT THE THREATS WILL INCREASE
WITH HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL ALL
A THREAT WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...08

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
529 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

SDZ038-050-052-053-057>059-063-064-161030-
BEADLE-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-CHARLES MIX-
DOUGLAS-
529 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES AVERAGING 100 TO 105 DEGREES. FOR TONIGHT...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AND
PERSIST OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE ATMOSPHERE IS INITIALLY
CAPPED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER IF STORMS
CAN DEVELOP EARLY IN THE EVENING...THERE IS A RISK OF ISOLATED
WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL POSSIBLY UP TO THE SIZE OF
QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST IN THE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING TIME FRAME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING.

SDZ039-040-054-055-060-061-065-068-161030-
KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-MINER-LAKE-HANSON-MCCOOK-HUTCHINSON-BON HOMME-
529 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS AND PERSIST OVERNIGHT. IN GENERAL...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
INITIALLY CAPPED IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER
IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP EARLY ENOUGH IN THE EVENING...THERE IS A
RISK OF ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MPH AND HAIL POSSIBLY UP
TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. MORE VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY EVENING.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ080-081-089-090-098-NEZ013-
014-SDZ062-066-067-069>071-161030-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-ROCK-
DIXON-DAKOTA-MINNEHAHA-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
529 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SOUTHEAST
SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. INITIALLY SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAY HAVE ISOLATED HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS
OR 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. A BIGGER THREAT IS AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL
WHERE THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL.
THIS COULD CREATE URBAN FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AND CAUSE
LOCAL STREAMS TO RISE. MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MNZ071-072-097-SDZ056-161030-
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-PIPESTONE-MOODY-
529 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR PRIMARILY AFTER OVERNIGHT AND
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THESE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE BUT COULD HAVE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL...POSSIBLY PRODUCING 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME. MORE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY TO OCCUR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.