Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

Lyon County, IA, Osceola County, IA, Cottonwood County, MN, Jackson County, MN, Lincoln County, MN, Lyon County, MN, Murray County, MN, Nobles County, MN, Pipestone County, MN, Rock County, MN, Aurora County, SD, Bon Homme County, SD, Brookings County, SD, Brule County, SD, Charles Mix County, SD, Clay County, SD, Davison County, SD, Douglas County, SD, Gregory County, SD, Hanson County, SD, Hutchinson County, SD, Jerauld County, SD, Kingsbury County, SD, Lake County, SD, Lincoln County, SD, McCook County, SD, Miner County, SD, Minnehaha County, SD, Moody County, SD, Sanborn County, SD, Turner County, SD, Yankton County, SD

550 
WGUS63 KFSD 060831
FFAFSD

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
331 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015


SDZ039-050-052>054-057>060-063>070-060945-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150706T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
KINGSBURY-GREGORY-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-
HANSON-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-
YANKTON-CLAY SD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DE SMET...ARLINGTON...LAKE PRESTON...
GREGORY...BURKE...WESSINGTON SPRINGS...ALPENA...WOONSOCKET...
HOWARD...CHAMBERLAIN...KIMBALL...PLANKINTON...WHITE LAKE...
STICKNEY...MITCHELL...ALEXANDRIA...EMERY...WAGNER...PLATTE...
LAKE ANDES...MARTY...ARMOUR...CORSICA...DELMONT...PARKSTON...
FREEMAN...MENNO...TRIPP...PARKER...CENTERVILLE...MARION...
VIBORG...HURLEY...CHANCELLOR...CANTON...LENNOX...TEA...
HARRISBURG...TYNDALL...SCOTLAND...SPRINGFIELD...AVON...TABOR...
YANKTON...VERMILLION
331 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN
CANCELLED. RAINFALL RATES ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE AREA.

$$

IAZ001-002-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ040-055-056-061-
062-061500-
/O.CON.KFSD.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150706T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-
JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-BROOKINGS-LAKE-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...IVANHOE...
MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE...
BROOKINGS...MADISON...FLANDREAU...SALEM...CANISTOTA...
BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...SIOUX FALLS
331 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES FOR

* PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND SOUTH 
  DAKOTA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHWEST IOWA... 
  LYON IA AND OSCEOLA. IN SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...COTTONWOOD... 
  JACKSON...LINCOLN MN...LYON MN...MURRAY...NOBLES...PIPESTONE 
  AND ROCK. IN SOUTH DAKOTA...BROOKINGS...LAKE...MCCOOK... 
  MINNEHAHA AND MOODY. 

* UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING

* THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY
  RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
  EARLY MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OR MORE ARE
  POSSIBLE IN SOME LOCATIONS...AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS MOVE ACROSS
  THE REGION.

* AREAS STREAMS...CREEKS AND RIVERS MAY CLIMB TO AND EXCEED 
  BANKFULL. LOW WATER SPOTS WILL ALSO LIKELY FILL WITH WATER AND 
  CAUSE POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. VERY HIGH 
  RAINFALL RATES MAY ALSO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN URBAN AREAS. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP THAT LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. FLASH FLOODING IS A VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION
SHOULD FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS BE ISSUED.

&&

$$

543 
WGUS63 KFSD 061026
FFAFSD

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
526 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015


IAZ001-002-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ040-055-056-061-
062-061130-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-150706T1500Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-
JACKSON-PIPESTONE-ROCK-BROOKINGS-LAKE-MOODY-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROCK RAPIDS...GEORGE...INWOOD...
LARCHWOOD...SIBLEY...TYLER...HENDRICKS...LAKE BENTON...IVANHOE...
MARSHALL...SLAYTON...FULDA...WINDOM...MOUNTAIN LAKE...
WORTHINGTON...JACKSON...LAKEFIELD...PIPESTONE...LUVERNE...
BROOKINGS...MADISON...FLANDREAU...SALEM...CANISTOTA...
BRIDGEWATER...MONTROSE...SIOUX FALLS
526 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA...SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. RAINFALL RATES ARE
NO LONGER HEAVY.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
650 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE IS STILL AN EASY TO RECOGNIZE FAIRLY STRONG SEVERE STORM
POTENTIAL TONIGHT WITH SPC DEPICTION OF POTENTIAL AND GENERAL
TIMING LOOKING GOOD. THE PROBLEM LIES IN THE
SPECIFICS...ESPECIALLY THE INITIAL DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. SOME OF
THE SHORT RANGE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE DEPICTING FAIRLY EARLY
DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. IN THE CASE OF THE
OPERATIONAL HRRR THIS LOOKS TO BE DONE TOO EARLY AND TOO FAR
SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER OTHER MODELS ARE MORE MODERATE YET STILL
INDICATE SOME DEVELOPMENT FAIRLY EARLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH
BY THE WAY FOR THE TIME BEING HAS PROGRESSED SOMEWHAT FASTER
TOWARD THE AREA THAN MODELS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING. I WOULD EXPECT A
SLOWDOWN DUE TO WAVE ACTION WHICH PROBABLY ALSO SHOWS UP IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL JET DEPICTED STRONGLY ON THE MODELS.
IN SHORT...STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND THE SEVERE
THREAT FROM LATE EVENING ON...AFTER MIDNIGHT SOUTHEAST...BUT WE
WILL WATCH FOR POSSIBLE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT AS EARLY AS THE END
OF THE AFTERNOON.

AS MENTIONED...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS STILL THERE FOR SCATTERED
WINDS AND HAIL EARLY AND ESPECIALLY WINDS LATE TONIGHT. WILL
CONTINUE TO INCLUDE THE HAIL/WIND/HEAVY RAIN MENTION IN THE GRIDS
ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS. AS FOR THE HEAVY RAIN...CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED QPF AND CURRENT FFG DO NOT SHOW A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH. THE NORTHEAST APPEARS TO HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN BUT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE CONVECTION BEHAVES.

THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND REACH
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER MONDAY MORNING. COOLER AIR WITH THE NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL LOWER TEMPERATURES TO THE LOWER 60S NORTHWEST...WITH 70
OR SO LOWS SOUTHEAST.

LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM THE NORTHWEST MONDAY AND
CLOUDS WILL DECREASE. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE COOL AND DRY REGIME WILL
HAVE TAKEN OVER AND THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IN NORTHWEST IOWA SHOULD
HAVE ENDED. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TAKE HOLD AND GET MARGINALLY
BREEZY...WHILE TEMPERATURES HANG IN THE 70S AND SKIES BRIGHTEN FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE FIRST HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST WILL REMAIN COOL AND DRY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES.  COOL EASTERLY FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S IN MOST
LOCATIONS...ALMOST 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR. HAVE LOWERED LOW TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES.

BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK WAVE PASSING
THROUGH THE MID-LVL FLOW. THE STRONG INFLUENCE OF DRY SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD KEEP POPS AT A MINIMUM.

BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
BEGIN TO TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY...TYPICALLY INDICATIVE OF WARMING
TEMPERATURES...INCREASING HUMIDITY AND THE POTENTIAL RETURN OF LOW-
END PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY NEXT WEEKEND. SEVERAL WAVES OF ENERGY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT THE EXACT TRACK OF THESE WAVES IN
DOUBT. AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES ARE CONCERNED...FORECAST HOLDS
READINGS ABOVE NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND...AND WE MAY BE PUSHING 90S IN
MANY AREAS BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL EXPAND SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PERIODS MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF
THE STORMS. STRONGEST CLUSTER OF STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH OF
KHON...BUT COULD IMPACT KFSD AND/OR KSUX WITH STRONG WINDS AFTER
06Z. TAMER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AFTER 06/12Z...THOUGH PERIOD OF
MVFR CEILINGS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH THE
MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT AFTER
06/18Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...DUX
AVIATION...JH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

MNZ071-072-SDZ038>040-052>059-061915-
LINCOLN MN-LYON MN-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-
MINER-LAKE-MOODY-BRULE-AURORA-DAVISON-
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...THEN PUSH SOUTH
AND EAST INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS
AND WINDS OF 70 MPH...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

IAZ001-002-012-MNZ080-081-089-090-097-098-SDZ050-060>071-061915-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-SIOUX-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-PIPESTONE-
ROCK-GREGORY-HANSON-MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-
HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS WILL
THEN PUSH SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS OF 70
MPH...ALONG WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 8 PM THIS EVENING AND
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

IAZ003-013-014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-061915-
DICKINSON-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-
IDA-DIXON-DAKOTA-
201 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA
AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA AFTER 2 AM
TONIGHT. WHILE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS WILL BE A POSSIBILITY
WITH THESE STORMS...THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE WINDS TO 70 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER 2 AM TONIGHT.