Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

273 
WGUS73 KFSD 072229
FFSFSD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
529 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

SDC005-072238-
/O.CAN.KFSD.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-150608T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BEADLE SD-
529 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN BEADLE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

FLOOD WATERS HAVE RECEDED IN THE CITY OF HURON...AND ARE NO LONGER 
EXPECTED TO POSE A THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. PLEASE CONTINUE TO 
HEED ANY ROAD CLOSURES.

LAT...LON 4433 9827 4440 9826 4440 9818 4433 9817

$$

CHAPMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
358 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

VERY STRONG NORTHERN STREAM WAVE DIGGING THROUGH EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONFLUENCE WITH SOUTHERN STREAM IN
ADVANCE SLIPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. A BAND OF LIGHT RAINFALL
HAS CONTINUED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE FRONTOGENETIC FORCING BUT
IS GRADUALLY DECREASING AT PRESENT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST IOWA.  THIS TREND IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT OF THE PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS...A MUCH COOLER AND STABLE
AIRMASS IS OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER...ON THE NORTHWESTERN
FRINGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD...HAVE MANAGED TO GET ENOUGH HEATING TO
PUSH TEMPS TO AROUND 80 DEGREES...AND GENERATED ENOUGH SURFACE BASED
CAPE TO POP UP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A THETA-E GRADIENT ON
THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD.  DESPITE 600-1000 CAPE...MUCH OF IT
LOOKS TO BE IN THE HAIL GENERATION RANGE...SO SHOULD SEE A FEW
STORMS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 TO 50 MPH. THESE
SHOULD SUCCUMB TO THE DIURNAL CYCLE...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF STRENGTH
AND COVERAGE BY EARLY EVENING...AS WELL AS ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS INTO
THE MORE STABLE AIR SOUTHWARD. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...
WILL SEE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH WILL RETAIN A FEW
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

MONDAY LOOKS TO BE A PLEASANT AND WARM DAY...IF NOT SOMEWHAT BREEZY
OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPS DRIVEN LARGELY BY
MIXING...WHICH SUGGEST A QUICKER THAN TYPICAL RISE EARLY IN THE DAY
AS NORTHWEST WINDS SURFACE...AND A FINAL PLACE GENERALLY IN THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STILL LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY
DRY PERIOD. MODELS SHOW SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSING OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT BUT DO NOT SEE ENOUGH SUPPORT
FOR SHOWER MENTION..ONLY FOR NON ZERO POPS. MONDAY SHOULD BE NICE
AND WARM THEN TUESDAY LOOKS HOT WITH AN IDEAL WARMING PATTERN JUST
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. CLOUD DOVER SHOULD BE MORE MINIMAL THAN
MONDAY AND THE HEATING OVER THE THERMAL AXIS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
THE FRONT SHOULD SEND TEMPERATURES UP TO 90 OR SNOW...PERHAPS EVEN A
FEW MID 90S.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TOO GOOD. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL THE END OF
THE DAY...WITH EARLIER ARRIVAL IT WOULD HAVE A BETTER SHOT AT A FEW
STORMS OVER THE AREA...AS IT IS...WE ARE TARGETING ANY SPOTTY STORMS
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. AFTER COORDINATION WILL GO WITH JUST A SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CONFINE THAT TO SOUTHWEST MN.

THE FRONT WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE AREA BEFORE STALLING. THE APPROACH
OF THE WESTERN TROUGH WILL BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND SOME
INSTABILITY TO THE AREA...AND THE DYNAMIC AND THERMAL SUPPORT WITH
THE TROUGH APPROACHING...AND THE FRONT STARTING SOUTH OF THE
AREA...SETS OF A RATHER WET POTENTIAL COUPLE OF DAYS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH AN OPENING SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. AN INTERESTING FACTOR IN THE MOISTURE EQUATION COULD BE
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM DYING HURRICANE BLANCA
BEING SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY BY THE TROUGH.

YESTERDAY SEEMED TO PRESENT A DRY PICTURE FOR NEXT WEEKEND AND THAT
COULD STILL HOLD...BUT MODELS NOW DEPICT ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE THERMAL SUPPORT DOES NOT LOOK GOOD BUT GIVEN
SOME DYNAMIC SUPPORT...WILL GO WITH THE EXTENDED GUIDANCE CHANCE
POPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL COOL SOME BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL BE
FAIRLY COOL DURING THE DAY LATE IN THE WEEK ESPECIALLY NORTH...GIVEN
LOADS OF CLOUD COVER AND THE RAIN THREAT...THEN LOOK TO WARM SLOWLY
FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

BAND OF MID LEVEL SHOWERS WILL PRESS THROUGH AREAS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 90 THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN VFR WITHIN THE PRECIP AREA. OTHER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDER WILL DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON
HOURS ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF EXITING CLOUD SHIELD AS ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZES...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE LEVELS IN
TAFS PAST A VICINITY MENTION.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...CHAPMAN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

MNZ071-SDZ038>040-052>054-057-058-082030-
LINCOLN MN-BEADLE-KINGSBURY-BROOKINGS-JERAULD-SANBORN-MINER-BRULE-
AURORA-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA...EAST CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE AFTERNOON WILL BE CAPABLE OF SMALL
HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 40 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
WHILE A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME SEVERE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
JUST WHEN. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
NEZ013-014-SDZ050-055-056-059>071-082030-
LYON IA-OSCEOLA-DICKINSON-SIOUX-O'BRIEN-CLAY IA-PLYMOUTH-CHEROKEE-
BUENA VISTA-WOODBURY-IDA-LYON MN-MURRAY-COTTONWOOD-NOBLES-JACKSON-
PIPESTONE-ROCK-DIXON-DAKOTA-GREGORY-LAKE-MOODY-DAVISON-HANSON-
MCCOOK-MINNEHAHA-CHARLES MIX-DOUGLAS-HUTCHINSON-TURNER-LINCOLN SD-
BON HOMME-YANKTON-CLAY SD-UNION-
325 PM CDT SUN JUN 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST
IOWA...SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHEAST NEBRASKA...EAST CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTH CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK.
WHILE A FEW STORMS MIGHT BECOME SEVERE IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT
JUST WHEN. STAY TUNED FOR FURTHER UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.