Alert archive / Arizona / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 7, 2015

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this special weather statement at Aug 7, 2015, 3:51 PM MST. It was in force for 39 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 7, 2015, 3:51 PM MST (22:51 UTC)
Expired: Aug 7, 2015, 4:30 PM MST
In force: 39 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 75 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:54 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.9 hours before the alert went out and 59 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 29 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -61 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1459 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 20 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 52 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 86 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Aug 7, 2:28 PM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 7, 2:28 PM MST, 1 hour 23 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
228 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THERE IS AN ELEVATED RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING IN NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA THAT INCLUDES MUCH OF COCONINO
COUNTY. STORM ACTIVITY WILL THEN DECREASE IN COVERAGE ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN NEXT WEEK RAMPING UP STORM
ACTIVITY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE TAHOE
THIS AFTERNOON IS PROVIDING SOME DYNAMIC LIFT TO HELP FUEL
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN ARIZONA. FURTHER
EAST...DAYTIME INSTABILITY FROM AMPLE MONSOON MOISTURE HAS
RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY STRETCHING FROM
WHITERIVER ALL WAY NORTH TOWARD KAYENTA. THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING
SUFFICIENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND WE HAVE RECEIVED A REPORT OF 0.75 INCH HAIL NEAR THE
SOUTH RIM OF GRAND CANYON. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST ARIZONA WHERE DYNAMIC LIFT AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ARE
MAXIMIZED AND POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORMS IS GREATEST. SEVERE
STORM THREATS INCLUDE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THAT BEING
SAID...ANY OF TODAY'S STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUES.

STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING BEFORE DECREASING.
EXPECT BY ABOUT MIDNIGHT THAT THE BULK OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WILL BE WINDING DOWN AS THE THE TROUGH TO OUR NORTH BEGINS TO
WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTH.

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WHICH PUSHES THE MOISTURE PLUME EASTWARD. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY GENERALLY FROM FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD WITH ONLY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY TO THE WEST. EVEN FEWER STORMS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH ANY STORMS BEING CONFINED TO THE WHITE AND CHUSKA
MOUNTAIN REGIONS.

WE WILL TRANSITION BACK INTO A MORE TYPICAL MONSOON PATTERN NEXT
WEEK WITH DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERS OVER NEW MEXICO AND TEXAS AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
PERSISTS ACROSS ARIZONA.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA TO
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. SCATTERED MVFR/IFR CONDS PSSBL IN
STRONGER STORMS. THERE IS A THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS PRODUCING
DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH ACROSS NORTHERN
COCONINO/NAVAJO COUNTIES (INCLUDING KGCN AND KPGA TERMINALS).
STORMS DECREASING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST BTWN 02-05Z SATURDAY.
LESS STORM COVERAGE EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT
MST TONIGHT FOR AZZ004>007-009- 012-015-038.

&&

PUBLIC...MCS/MCS
AVIATION...MCS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 7, 4:42 AM MST, 11 hours 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
442 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-080645-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
442 AM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SUCCESSIVE STORMS WILL
ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IN NORTHWESTERN
ARIZONA INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NAVAJO AND
APACHE COUNTIES.

SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING 1-888-745-1637.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 1:31 PM MST, 2 hours 20 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
131 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ013-014-040-072115-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
131 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO AND WEST
CENTRAL APACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 215 PM MST...

AT 130 PM MST...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES EAST OF WOODRUFF MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. A
WIND GUST TO 49 MPH WAS MEASURED WITH THIS STORM AT PETRIFIED FOREST.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PETRIFIED FOREST NATIONAL PARK.

LAT...LON 3464 10985 3483 10984 3491 10985 3505 10968
      3477 10950
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 225DEG 17KT 3484 10981

MOTTICE

Local storm report, Aug 7, 1:38 PM MST, 2 hours 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
138 PM MST FRI AUG 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1259 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE MILEPOST 325 ON HW 34.82N 109.86W
08/07/2015  M49 MPH          NAVAJO             AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            49 MPH WIND GUST AT PETRIFIED FOREST NP.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500107

CLM

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 2:17 PM MST, 1 hour 34 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
217 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

AZZ018-072145-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
217 PM MST FRI AUG 7 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL GILA COUNTY UNTIL
245 PM MST...

AT 217 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES NORTH OF HILLTOP...OR 35 MILES NORTHEAST OF GLOBE...MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FORT APACHE RESERVATION.

LAT...LON 3383 11051 3385 11055 3397 11060 3398 11026
      3383 11033
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 176DEG 25KT 3380 11041

MOTTICE

Special weather statement, Aug 7, 3:42 PM MST, 9 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 7, 3:43 PM MST, 8 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 7, 3:51 PM MST, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 7, 10:36 AM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Aug 7, 11:15 AM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	3 hr
Aug 7, 11:59 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	46 min
Aug 7, 12:18 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Gila	27 min
Aug 7, 1:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		31 min
Aug 7, 1:31 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		44 min
Aug 7, 1:49 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Coconino	9 hr
Aug 7, 2:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	90 min
Aug 7, 2:17 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Gila	28 min
Aug 7, 3:42 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Navajo	33 min
Aug 7, 3:58 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		32 min
Aug 7, 4:14 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Navajo	3 hr

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arizona, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.