Special Weather Statement, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
830 PM MST THU JUL 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA ON
FRIDAY WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS. FOR THE WEEKEND...MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD ONCE
AGAIN AS THE MONSOON HIGH REBUILDS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING TO ALL OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA WAS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING DURING THE EVENING HOURS. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...LOOK FOR SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY TO COME
TO AN END AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO SPREAD OVER THE REGION.

FRIDAY SHOULD BE THE DRIEST DAY WE HAVE SEEN RECENTLY. ONLY A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES NEAR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND THAT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
5-10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ALONG THE BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WAS CENTERED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA/SOUTHERN NEVADA WILL HAVE MOVED ON INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S...ALLOWING THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER TO BEGIN TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA. AS THE HIGH BUILDS BACK IN THIS WILL
ALLOW THE GRADUAL RETURN OF A MOIST MONSOON CIRCULATION. THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FIRST RETURNS TO PORTIONS OF THE MOGOLLON
RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS WITH INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THERE
ON SATURDAY...THEN MOVING FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO PORTIONS OF
YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTY ON SUNDAY.

FOR NEXT WEEK MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A LOW TO MODERATE GRADE
MONSOON WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 06Z PACKAGE...A DRIER AIR MASS WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH GENERAL VFR CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG AND EAST OF A KSOW-KRQE LINE. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WEST COAST WILL BRING
A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW TO ARIZONA. AS A RESULT...EXPECT DECREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY...EXCEPT OVER FAR EASTERN ARIZONA WHERE ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TO CAUSE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN FROM THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO A BETTER
POSITION. GOOD CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL
OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/JJ
AVIATION...MCCOLLUM/MAS
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
934 AM MST THU JUL 9 2015

AZZ010-011-013-014-016>018-039-040-100200-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
BLACK MESA AREA-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
934 AM MST THU JUL 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM PAYSON TO
KAYENTA. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH HAIL UP
TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRIER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY WITH MOISTURE AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURNING FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
342 PM MST THU JUL 9 2015

AZZ014-092315-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
342 PM MST THU JUL 9 2015

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT WEST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY...

AT 339 PM MST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR HUNT...OR 28 MILES
NORTHEAST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HUNT.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 180 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 335 AND 347.

LAT...LON 3446 10970 3451 10982 3492 10971 3483 10940
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 203DEG 43KT 3455 10973

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 PM MST THU JUL 9 2015

AZZ011-014-100515-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN
APACHE COUNTY-
930 PM MST THU JUL 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL APACHE COUNTY UNTIL
1015 PM MST...

AT 928 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
JUST SOUTH OF WITCH WELL...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WITCH WELL.

LAT...LON 3477 10916 3484 10935 3527 10918 3522 10905
      3521 10904 3499 10905
TIME...MOT...LOC 0428Z 202DEG 31KT 3490 10923

MCCOLLUM