Severe Thunderstorm Warning 79, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

982 
WWUS55 KFGZ 232130
SVSFGZ

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

AZC005-007-025-232145-
/O.CON.KFGZ.SV.W.0079.000000T0000Z-150823T2145Z/
GILA-COCONINO-YAVAPAI-
230 PM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 245 PM MST
FOR NORTHWESTERN GILA...SOUTHERN COCONINO AND EASTERN YAVAPAI
COUNTIES...

AT 229 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED OVER 
THE UPPER REACHES OF FOSSIL CREEK...OR ABOUT 3 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST 
OF STRAWBERRY. THIS STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...FOSSIL CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3451 11151 3443 11146 3442 11157 3448 11159
TIME...MOT...LOC 2129Z 056DEG 3KT 3446 11156 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. STARTING MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

&&
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OVER ARIZONA THIS
MORNING. COVERAGE TODAY WILL BE GREATER THAN YESTERDAY. SLOW MOVING
STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN TODAY. FORECAST
IS ON TRACK WITH NO UPDATES PLANNED TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A WEAK DISTURBANCE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AZ/UT
BORDER SATURDAY CONTINUES TO BRING AN AREA OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
NORTHEAST OF KAYENTA. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO SHIFT OUT OF AZ
AFTER SUNRISE. THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS BEEN LOCATED TO
OUR SOUTH THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS CAUSING A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO NEW MEXICO LATER TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. STORM COVERAGE TODAY SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS
OBSERVED SATURDAY. THE DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL THEN ALLOW
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO FLOW INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA, STARTING MONDAY
FROM FLAGSTAFF SOUTHWARD, THEN ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A DISTURBANCE LOCATED JUST SOUTHEAST OF
ARIZONA IS ALSO FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN AZ MONDAY AND UP
INTO NORTHERN AZ MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS DISTURBANCE AND THIS WILL ALSO TEND TO KEEP AT LEAST SOME STORMS
GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN THREATS NEAR STORMS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL INCLUDE A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
POTENTIAL...PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND STRONG
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK SOUTH OF OUR
AREA STARTING THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THIS WOULD PLACE ARIZONA
IN A GRADUALLY DRYING SOUTHWEST FLOW, AND ONLY LOW RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...LOWER ELEVATIONS SKC THROUGH 19Z-
20Z. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SCT-BKN CU/TCU WITH BASES FROM 7-10KFT AGL.
SCT SHRA/TSRA WITH ISOLD +TSRA OVER HIGHER TERRAIN...MOVING TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY 19Z-20Z. STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE MVFR AND  IFR
CONDITIONS. SFC WINDS SW 10-20KTS...CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO 45KTS. ALL
AREAS BECOMING VFR AGAIN AFT 02Z-03Z MONDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...MAS/JJ
AVIATION...BP

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
336 AM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-240500-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
336 AM MST SUN AUG 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

INCREASING MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS AND
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

MONSOON MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THE INCREASE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY
WIND...HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING THE MAIN THREATS. A DOWNTURN IN
STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING 1-888-745-1637.