Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 11, 2015, 7:33 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 11, 2015, 7:33 PM MDT (01:33 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 11, 2015, 8:00 PM MDT
- In force
- 27 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Storm-based polygon
County Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 1.6 hours before the alert went out and 143 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1680 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 15 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 47 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
764 WUUS55 KFGZ 120133 SVRFGZ AZC017-120200- /O.NEW.KFGZ.SV.W.0072.150812T0133Z-150812T0200Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 633 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA... * UNTIL 700 PM MST * AT 630 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOLBROOK...OR 31 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WINSLOW...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 45 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... DRY LAKE. THIS INCLUDES STATE ROUTE 377 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 9 AND 22. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS... DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTING AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. FOR YOUR PROTECTION...TAKE COVER IN A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. HEAVY RAIN FLOODS ROADS QUICKLY. DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3464 11021 3456 11040 3485 11059 3491 11039 TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 152DEG 39KT 3468 11036 $$ MAS
1 follow-up statement
413
WWUS55 KFGZ 120151
SVSFGZ
SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
651 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015
AZC017-120201-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-150812T0200Z/
NAVAJO-
651 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015
...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 700 PM MST...
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL
HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS
THUNDERSTORM.
LAT...LON 3464 11021 3456 11040 3485 11059 3491 11039
TIME...MOT...LOC 0149Z 152DEG 39KT 3468 11036
$$
MASWhat forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 11, 10:00 AM MDT, 9 hours 33 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 11, 10:00 AM MDT, 9 hours 33 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 900 AM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 .SYNOPSIS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. A DECREASE IN MONSOON ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FROM THURSDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH MOVES OVER ARIZONA BRINGING MORE STABLE AIR ALOFT AND A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE. && .DISCUSSION... WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING POTENTIALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...WITH SOUTH TO NORTH TRAINING THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HANGS ON THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANTICIPATED. THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO ARIZONA. WHILE A REDUCTION IN STORMS IS EXPECTED...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. && .AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. STORMS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AROUND 15 TO 20 KTS. LOCALIZED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN REDUCED VISIBILITY AND CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS. && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. && PUBLIC...MCCOLLUM/KD AVIATION...RR/TC FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 11, 4:23 PM MDT, 3 hours 10 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 323 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 AZZ004>018-037>040-120715- KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY- COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY- CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS- NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS- OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- 323 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO... NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE-40...AS DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH...PENNY SIZED HAIL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING...WITH SOUTH TO NORTH MOVEMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. STORM ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE HANGS ON OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS ANTICIPATED ALONG AND WEST OF A PRESCOTT...FLAGSTAFF...PAGE LINE. DRYING IS EXPECTED FURTHER EAST. THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE HIGH GRADUALLY SHIFTS WESTWARD APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO ARIZONA. WHILE A REDUCTION IN STORMS IS EXPECTED...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TO KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 11, 6:01 PM MDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 501 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 AZZ013-014-016-017-120030- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-WHITE MOUNTAINS-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- 501 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NAVAJO AND SOUTHWESTERN APACHE COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM MST... AT 500 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HONDAH...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHOW LOW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SHOW LOW...PINETOP-LAKESIDE...HONDAH...LAKE OF THE WOODS...WAGON WHEEL...LAKE OF THE WOODS--PINETOP-LAKESIDE...MCNARY...FOOL HOLLOW LAKE CAMPGROUND...SCOTT RESERVOIR CAMPGROUND...LOS BURROS CAMPGROUND...BROWN CREEK CAMPGROUND...LAKESIDE CAMPGROUND AND PINETOP COUNTRY CLUB. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO FLOWING WATER IN NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND ACROSS ROADS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS. && LAT...LON 3409 10975 3401 10994 3427 11016 3439 10987 TIME...MOT...LOC 0000Z 153DEG 17KT 3412 10989 MAS
Special weather statement, Aug 11, 6:10 PM MDT, 1 hour 23 minutes before
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 510 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 AZZ013-040-120100- NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- 510 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015 ...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM MST... AT 509 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLBROOK...OR 34 MILES EAST OF WINSLOW...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 20 MPH. HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... HOLBROOK AND JOSEPH CITY. LAT...LON 3483 10998 3475 11018 3507 11043 3519 11013 TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 153DEG 16KT 3487 11013 MAS
Local storm report, Aug 11, 6:12 PM MDT, 1 hour 21 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
512 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0415 PM FLASH FLOOD 25 SW KAYENTA 36.46N 110.57W
08/11/2015 NAVAJO AZ ARIZONA DPS
ALONG HWY 160... FLASH FLOODING BETWWEN MP 361 AND
379... TRAFFIC STOPPED
&&
CORRECTED REMARKS
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500117
DGVLocal storm report, Aug 11, 6:14 PM MDT, 1 hour 19 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
514 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0430 PM FLASH FLOOD ROUGH ROCK 36.41N 109.87W
08/11/2015 APACHE AZ ARIZONA DPS
FLOODING ON INDIAN ROUTE 59 AT MP 22 AND 33
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500118
DGVLocal storm report, Aug 11, 6:31 PM MDT, 1 hour 2 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
531 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1200 PM HEAVY RAIN PARKS 35.26N 111.95W
08/11/2015 M1.00 INCH COCONINO AZ TRAINED SPOTTER
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500119
DGVLocal storm report, Aug 11, 7:27 PM MDT, 6 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
627 PM MST TUE AUG 11 2015
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0600 PM HEAVY RAIN 11 NW PRESCOTT 34.69N 112.59W
08/11/2015 M1.14 INCH YAVAPAI AZ MESONET
WILLIAMSON VALLEY FD
&&
EVENT NUMBER FGZ1500120
DGVThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 6:01 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 29 min | |
| Aug 11, 6:10 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Navajo | 50 min |
| Aug 11, 7:56 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 49 min | |
| Aug 11, 8:11 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Navajo | 49 min |
| Aug 11, 9:10 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 50 min |
| Aug 12, 12:38 AM MDT | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 22 min |
| Aug 12, 1:18 AM MDT | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | Yavapai | 42 min |
| Aug 12, 1:19 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 12 hr |
| Aug 12, 3:28 PM MDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 47 min |
| Aug 12, 4:30 PM MDT | Special Weather Statement | FGZ | 45 min | |
| Aug 12, 5:39 PM MDT | Areal Flood Advisory | FGZ | Coconino | 4 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2015Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.