Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST SUN AUG 9 2015

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR HAS MOVED IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY WHICH
WILL LEAD TO A REDUCTION IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RETURN ON MONDAY WITH A MUCH
WETTER MONSOON PATTERN ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.UPDATE/DISCUSSION...
THOUGH A REDUCTION IN STORM COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TODAY VERSUS
YESTERDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF STORMS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE IN NORTHERN ARIZONA SO
PRECIP/STORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN RAISED ACCORDINGLY. STORMS WILL
INITIALLY FAVOR HIGHER TERRAIN...WITH STORM MOTION TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /437 AM MST/...SOUTHWEST FLOW HAS BROUGHT DRIER
AIR FROM THE PACIFIC INTO ARIZONA TODAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS DRIER
AIR HAS FORMED A MORE STABLE AIR MASS COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND WILL LIMIT OUR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO
MONDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL REPOSITION
ITSELF FARTHER NORTHWARD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEEPENS OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST. A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS ARIZONA...SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE AXIS...BRINGING ADDITIONAL TROPICAL MOISTURE UP INTO
ARIZONA. MONDAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION DAY TO A MORE ACTIVE
MONSOON PATTERN WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RAMPING UP ON
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS THE CUT OFF LOW MOVES NORTHWARD THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE MOVES INTO SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND STRENGTHENS.
THIS PATTERN SHIFT WILL PRODUCE A MORE STABLE AND SLIGHTLY DRIER
AIR MASS WITH LOWER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA BETWEEN 18Z-03Z ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER THE STRONGEST STORMS.
TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT KFLG...KGCN...KSEZ AND KINW...BUT
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO BE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...AT/BOHLIN
AVIATION...RR

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
127 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

AZZ004>007-009>016-038>040-090445-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
127 PM MST SAT AUG 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA...NORTHEAST ARIZONA AND WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE
HAIL OR STRONG WINDS. HEAVY RAIN WITH SUCCESSIVE STORMS WILL
ELEVATE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM
NORTHWARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SUNDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT THREATS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
TO LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT...OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY
CALLING 1-888-745-1637.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1226 PM MST SUN AUG 9 2015

AZZ008-037-092000-
YAVAPAI COUNTY  MOUNTAINS-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
1226 PM MST SUN AUG 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM MST...

AT 1224 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR CHINO VALLEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM...IN ADDITION TO HEAVY RAINFALL.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CHINO VALLEY...PAULDEN AND NORTH WILLIAMSON VALLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 11250 3479 11267 3501 11251 3484 11226
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 220DEG 9KT 3480 11253