Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 46, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 7, 2015Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2015, 12:34 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 26 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 2015, 12:34 PM MST (19:34 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2015, 1:00 PM MST
In force: 26 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Storm-based polygon

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 124 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:34 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.6 hours before the alert went out and 98 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 111 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -89 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1418 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 28 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 25 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: -0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 10:03 AM MST, 2 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 10:03 AM MST, 2 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1003 AM MST TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MONSOON MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA THROUGH TODAY. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN ARIZONA. THE CHANCE OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS APACHE COUNTY. MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WESTWARD THIS
WEEKEND...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF THE NORTHLAND BY
SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...RAISED SHOWER/T-STORM CHANCES SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND
FLAGSTAFF NORTHWARD FOR THE REST OF THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL COLD
AIR/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
ARIZONA TODAY. DRYING IS STILL ON TAP STARTING TOMORROW, BUT THERE
IS A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON JUST HOW FAR EAST THE DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH. RAISED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BACK TO AROUND 20
PERCENT FOR THE FLAGSTAFF/GRAND CANYON AREAS, HIGHER EAST OF
THERE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY LOOK LIKE THE DRIEST DAYS, WITH STORM
CHANCES LIKELY CONFINED TO FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. UPDATES SENT A
SHORT TIME AGO.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /330 AM MST/... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING CLEAR
SKIES ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. SATELLITE PW
ESTIMATES AND SFC DEW POINTS ARE LOWER THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER...THERE IS STILL MORE THAN ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALOFT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SOLAR HEATING PROVIDES THE
LIFT NEEDED TO GET THIS GOING.

STILL EXPECTING A STRONG DRYING TREND STARTING WEDNESDAY AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST TURNS OUR FLOW TO
SOUTHWESTERLY. MONSOON MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS APACHE
COUNTY THOUGH.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT IT WILL BE DRY
AND STABLE ENOUGH FOR NO STORM ACTIVITY WEST OF A LINE FROM
KAYENTA TO PAYSON. BREEZY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS COCONINO AND YAVPAI COUNTIES...WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL COOL, WITH VALUES 5-10 DEGREES
BELOW DAILY AVERAGES.  MOST MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THE RIDGE
PUSHING WESTWARD BY THE WEEKEND, PUSHING MONSOON MOISTURE BACK
INTO OUR AREA. RAIN CHANCES GO UP FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...SCT TSRA/SHRA ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
THROUGH AROUND 04Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDS NEAR STORMS. ISOLD-SCT
-SHRA MAY CONTINUE THROUGH 10Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL KEEP A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
CIRCULATION OVER ARIZONA THROUGH TUESDAY. DRIER WESTERLY FLOW WILL
DEVELOP AS THE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ON WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH DECREASING AFTERNOON
HUMIDITY VALUES AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH AGAIN ON SATURDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...JJ/DL
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...TC

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 7, 11:26 AM MST, 1 hour 8 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

Special weather statement, Jul 7, 12:10 PM MST, 24 minutes before

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 6, 5:56 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		19 min
Jul 6, 6:20 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Apache	25 min
Jul 6, 7:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		31 min
Jul 7, 11:26 AM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	34 min
Jul 7, 12:10 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	35 min
Jul 7, 12:42 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	33 min
Jul 7, 12:58 PM MST	Areal Flood Advisory	FGZ	Yavapai	2 hr
Jul 7, 1:14 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		31 min
Jul 7, 1:16 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	29 min
Jul 7, 1:37 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	23 min
Jul 7, 1:38 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Mohave	22 min
Jul 7, 2:43 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		32 min
Jul 7, 2:49 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	26 min
Jul 7, 2:56 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		34 min
Jul 7, 3:00 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Navajo	30 min
Jul 7, 3:19 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Gila	26 min
Jul 7, 3:31 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		14 min
Jul 7, 3:36 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		24 min
Jul 7, 3:41 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	19 min
Jul 7, 3:46 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		29 min
Jul 7, 3:55 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		20 min
Jul 7, 4:08 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ		7 min
Jul 7, 4:24 PM MST	Special Weather Statement	FGZ	Yavapai	21 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.