Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

533 
WGUS75 KFGZ 060149
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
649 PM MST SAT SEP 5 2015

AZC025-060245-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0042.000000T0000Z-150906T0245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
YAVAPAI-
649 PM MST SAT SEP 5 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 745 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...

AT 644 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE  
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP AND PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA. 
RADAR ESTIMATES BETWEEN THREE AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS ALREADY 
FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...AREAS NORTH 
OF HIGHWAY 89A FROM CLARKDALE TO JEROME...AND TUZIGOOT NATIONAL 
MONUMENT. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS...BITTER CREEK AND THE VERDE 
RIVER NEAR CLARKDALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3483 11205 3477 11203 3476 11208 3475 11218
      3484 11212

$$
41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 PM MST SAT SEP 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A RELATIVE INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...WITH STORM CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A PATTERN CHANGE MAY LEAD TO SOME SUBSTANTIAL
DRYING TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS EXPECTED...A COUPLE OF ELEVATED INVERSIONS DETECTED ON THIS
MORNING'S SOUNDING AS WELL AS SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA HAVE LIMITED INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
DESPITE THIS...THE FLOW ALOFT HAS ENABLED SOME CELLS TO TRAIN AND
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO INCHES. WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF EXTERNAL FORCING TODAY ASIDE FROM SOLAR
HEATING...EXPECT A FAIRLY RAPID DECREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AFTER
SUNSET.

ON SUNDAY...WE ANTICIPATE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE COMPARED TO TODAY AS WE SHOULD BE STARTING THE DAY WITH
LESS CLOUDINESS OVERALL. FROM MONDAY THROUGH AROUND
THURSDAY...EXPECT CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY
WITH THE CHANCE OF ANY ONE LOCATION RECEIVING RAIN BEING
RELATIVELY LOW. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...THE NAEFS ENSEMBLE
MEAN FORECASTS AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG RIDGE TO FORM OFF THE WEST
COAST...WHICH WOULD PLACE NORTHERN AZ IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.
THIS WOULD DRY US OUT SUBSTANTIALLY. ENSEMBLE FORECASTS SHOW FAIR
AGREEMENT IN THIS SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND...WITH LOTS OF SPREAD
AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE
FOLLOWING WEEK /14-16 SEP/.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET THEN DIMINISH
IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL REDEVELOP ON SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE
ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH ALONG WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND SMALL HAIL. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...TAYLOR
AVIATION...BOHLIN

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
636 AM MST SAT SEP 5 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-060700-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
636 AM MST SAT SEP 5 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
THE BEST CHANCES EAST OF A LINE FROM PRESCOTT TO FLAGSTAFF TO
PAGE. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY
THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST...WITH THE
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.