Flash Flood Warning 39, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

397 
WGUS75 KFGZ 040016
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
516 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

AZC017-040200-
/O.CON.KFGZ.FF.W.0039.000000T0000Z-150904T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
NAVAJO-
516 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MST FOR
CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...

AT 514 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA WHICH IS ABOUT 20 MILES 
NORTHEAST OF WINSLOW. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...COTTONWOOD 
WASH TO ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3526 11026 3509 11021 3499 11062 3511 11044
      3531 11033

$$

41

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
352 PM MST THU SEP 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. DRIER CONDITIONS MAY RETURN TO NORTHERN
ARIZONA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SO FAR TODAY, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS
GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN GILA, AND
SOUTHERN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THESE
STORMS HAS BEEN LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE PRIMARILY ALONG AND TO THE NORTH
OF THE EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE STILL INDICATES THAT OUTFLOWS FROM
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA MAY TRIGGER NEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM FROM
FLAGSTAFF EASTWARD - ALTHOUGH THE HRRR HAS BACKED OFF ON THIS
PREDICTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF RUNS.

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY,
WITH THE GREATEST ACTIVITY ROUGHLY EAST OF LINE FROM
PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-PAGE. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD, BUT INCREASING DEEP LAYER
SHEAR MEANS LARGE HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

SATURDAY ONWARD...AS WE ENTER THE WEEKEND...FLOW WILL TURN WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ECMWF KEEPS MOISTURE MUCH MORE LIMITED THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHILE THE GFS IS MORE FAVORABLE TO RETURNING
STORM CHANCES NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO OBSERVE MODEL FORECAST
TRENDS OVER THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED STORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS EVENING ACROSS NAVAJO, APACHE, AND GILA COUNTIES. ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP AFT 18Z FRIDAY PRIMARILY ALONG
AND EAST OF A PRESCOTT-FLAGSTAFF-PAGE LINE. ISOLATED STORMS
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN MOD/HVY
RAIN ALONG WITH GUSTY STORM OUTFLOWS TO 30 KTS. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...RR
AVIATION...CLM

FOR NORTHERN ARIZONA WEATHER INFORMATION VISIT
WEATHER.GOV/FLAGSTAFF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
651 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

AZZ004>018-037>040-040645-
KAIBAB PLATEAU-MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-
COCONINO PLATEAU-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-CHINLE VALLEY-
CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-
OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-BLACK MESA AREA-
NORTHEAST PLATEAUS AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
651 AM MST THU SEP 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...
NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE MOST FOCUSED OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY...WITH LOWER STORM CHANCES
CONTINUING ELSEWHERE. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WINDS...LIGHTNING AND ISOLATED HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.