Special Weather Statement, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
303 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST
HEADACHE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

WV LOOP SHOWS A FAIRLY VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN ND TOWARDS THE CWA. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS HAVE BEEN
INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT THERE HAS BEEN SOME
DESTABILIZATION...PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES WHERE
CAPE VALUES ARE 1500-2000 J/KG ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE.
THERE HAS ALSO BEEN SOME DECENT CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN THE EASTERN
COUNTIES. NOT MUCH SFC CONVERGENCE AND DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR IS
AROUND 45 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BUT QUICKLY TAPERS OFF TO
AROUND 20 KTS IN THE NORTH. THINK THAT THE STORMS ENTERING OUR
WESTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD THIS EVENING...AND
SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE ACTIVITY IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.
CONTINUED TO KEEP 40-60 POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...THEN DECREASING LATER TONIGHT AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING
AND THE SHORTWAVE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. THINK WE SHOULD GET SOME
DECENT CLEARING OVERNIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS TEMPS SHOULD DROP
DOWN INTO THE MID 50S.

TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONTINUES...AND THERE COULD BE SOME VERY SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVING
THROUGH ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER FEATURE WILL BE DOWN OVER NEB. THERE
WILL BE SOME DESTABILIZATION BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TEMPS GET
INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES. SOME OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BREAK OUT SOME ISOLATED PRECIP IN THE AFTERNOON...AND CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THAT CONSIDERING THE SEASON...SOME INSTABILITY AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF ANY SMALL DISTURBANCE SETTING CONVECTION OFF. THINK
THAT ACTIVITY IF IT OCCURS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND WE SHOULD BE
DRY AFTER 06Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AMPLIFIES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. THERE COULD AGAIN
BE SOME SORT OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY SO KEPT SOME LOW POPS
MAINLY IN THE WEST AND SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. BETTER
SIGNAL FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON SATURDAY...WITH
SOME DECENT INSTABILITY OF AROUND 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING. TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A
BIT AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS SO WE SHOULD AGAIN SEE TEMPS NEAR 80
ON FRIDAY AND ABOVE ON SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS
WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER MT...KEEPING MUCH OF ND DRY. A WAVE
EMBEDDED IN NORTHERLY FLOW PATTERN OVER THE VALLEY AND MN WILL BRING
A CHANCE FOR TS IN THE EAST SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THE EARLY PART OF
THE WORK WEEK SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER BY TUE THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS
DOWN AND A LEE SIDE SLOW DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN MT...SHIFTING INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR MORE
CONVECTION MAINLY TO THE CENTRAL ND AND OUR WESTERN ZONES IN THE TUE
TO WED TIMEFRAME. ANOTHER WAVE IN NW FLOW ALOFT MOVES ACROSS THE
NORTH LATE IN THE WEEK. TYPICAL MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN WITH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF PRECIP WHILE THERE IS DECENT CONSISTENCY FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS GENERALLY AROUND 80.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

THERE IS A WAVE OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS OVER N
CNTRL ND THAT WILL PUSH EAST THIS EVENING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE DVL
AREA. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ALSO HAS THE REGION IN A MARGINAL
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER HAS
EXTENDED OVER THE VALLEY...DIMINISHING HEATING. WITH ADDED
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP...HAVE REMOVED FROM THE
TAFS A MENTION OF TS AT GFK AND FAR AS THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE WE WILL SEE TS 5 TO 10 SM FROM THE AERODROME TO INCLUDE
VCTS. TVF AND BJI ARE STILL CLEAR AND HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR LATE
AFTN DEVELOPMENT...WILL KEEP VCTS AT EACH SITE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR/SPEICHER
AVIATION...SPEICHER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
624 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-251130-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
624 AM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WESTERN MINNESOTA. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 10 PM. STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER SUNSET AND
DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
233 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

NDZ024-242030-
EDDY ND-
233 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN EDDY COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM
CDT...

AT 232 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NEW ROCKFORD...OR 11 MILES NORTHEAST OF
CARRINGTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BRANTFORD AROUND 240 PM CDT.

LAT...LON 4759 9912 4768 9912 4768 9856 4765 9851
      4759 9851
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 272DEG 27KT 4759 9900

VG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
349 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

MNZ006-242115-
LAKE OF THE WOODS MN-
349 PM CDT WED JUN 24 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAKE OF THE WOODS
COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

AT 348 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTH OF BAUDETTE...OR 53 MILES WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS...
MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF SOUTHEASTERN LAKE
OF THE WOODS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 4837 9470 4860 9468 4860 9444 4837 9444
TIME...MOT...LOC 2048Z 272DEG 20KT 4851 9457

VG