Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Grand Forks, ND

250 
WWUS53 KFGF 021136
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
636 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MNC087-107-119-021145-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0092.000000T0000Z-150802T1145Z/
NORMAN MN-POLK MN-MAHNOMEN MN-
636 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN NORMAN...SOUTH
CENTRAL POLK AND MAHNOMEN COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 645 AM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER THERE IS A 
SEVERE STORM IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN NORMAN INTO SOUTHWESTERN MAHNOMEN 
AND PARTS OF NORTHERN BECKER COUNTY AND THAT WARNING WILL REMAIN IN 
PLACE.  

LAT...LON 4743 9650 4767 9630 4741 9556 4716 9555
TIME...MOT...LOC 1134Z 298DEG 44KT 4755 9627 

$$

DTR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO CNTRL MANTIOBA AND NW ONTARIO
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT OUT AHEAD OF IT MOVING INTO SE ND
AND CNTRL MN. BEHIND THE FRONT IS AN AREA OF 50 KT BULK SHEAR AND
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE A AXIS OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL
ACTIVITY AND INTENSITY LESS THAN EARLIER SATURDAY EVENING...BUT A
LITTLE UPWARD TICK IN INTENSITY HAS OCCURED SINCE 230 AM FROM FAR
NE ND INTO NW MN. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THRU
THE EARLY MORNING...AND WILL CONTINUE WITH ISOLD/SCT TRW IDEA INTO
NW MN THRU MID MORNING AS PREV FCST. OTHERWISE NORTH WINDS TODAY
PICKING UP 10 TO 20 KT RANGE AND COOLER WEATHER WITH HIGHS MOSTLY
70S. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO CNTRL ND TONIGHT AND LINGERS THERE
MONDAY. MEANWHILE AS UPPER LOW IN WRN HUDSON BAY SHIFTS SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST INTO NW ONTARIO SOME WRAPAROUND STRATOCU TO BRUSH FAR NE
FCST AREA MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE ESP IN LAKE OF THE WOODS
REGION WHERE HIGHS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

CLOUDS MAY LINGER IN FAR NE FCST AREA INTO MON NIGHT OR TUESDAY
BUT OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL WITH CENTER STILL OVER
CNTRL ND.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
LONG WAVE TROUGH INTENSIFIES A BIT OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES/SOUTHEAST CANADA
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO CENTRAL CANADA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

THE ECMWF WAS FASTER THAN THE GFS THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD BUT THE
GFS BECOMES FASTER BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THE GFS WAS TRENDING
FASTER WHILE THE ECMWF WAS TRENDING SLOWER OVER THE LAST COUPLE
RUNS. WILL BLEND THE TWO MODELS.

HIGH TEMPS DECREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR WED AND ABOUT A DEGREE FOR
THU. TEMPS WERE GENERALLY INCREASED A DEGREE OR TWO FOR FRI AND SAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

GENERALLY FAIR SKIES THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN FA... WITH WIND SHIFT TURNING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS ALONG WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS.

ACROSS THE NORTHERN FA... A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CANAM BORDER WILL DEVELOP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND
AN ISOLATED MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH OCCASIONAL LARGE HAIL IN
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS... ALG AND NORTH OF A CANDO TO GRAND
FORKS AND BEMIDJI LINE. SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
MORNING HOURS ACROSS NORTHERN MN.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RIDDLE
LONG TERM...JH/RIDDLE
AVIATION...GUST

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
458 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-031000-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
458 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE CENTRAL RED RIVER VALLEY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL END BY NOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WILL SEE A RISK OF A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DTR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1205 AM CDT SUN AUG 02 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1154 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 NE ROSEAU             48.87N 95.73W
08/01/2015  M67 MPH          ROSEAU             MN   AWOS

            PEAK WIND TO 58 KTS MEASURED AT THE ROSEAU AIRPORT.

&&

GGUST