Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 12, 2015Barnes County, Cass County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 12, 2015, 11:49 PM CDT for Barnes County, Cass County, North Dakota. It was in force for 56 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 12, 2015, 11:49 PM CDT (04:49 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2015, 12:45 AM CDT
In force: 56 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties Barnes County, ND, Cass County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:49 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 00:00Z, 4.8 hours before the alert went out and 227 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 812 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -11 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2625 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 54 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.7

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

088 
WUUS53 KFGF 130449
SVRFGF
NDC003-017-130545-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0069.150713T0449Z-150713T0545Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1149 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...
  EAST CENTRAL BARNES COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...

* UNTIL 1245 AM CDT

* AT 1149 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR VALLEY
  CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE 
           TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

* THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ORISKA AROUND 1200 AM CDT.
  TOWER CITY AROUND 1210 AM CDT.
  BUFFALO AROUND 1215 AM CDT.
  AYR AROUND 1220 AM CDT.
  ABSARAKA AROUND 1230 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4692 9800 4708 9795 4711 9733 4675 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0449Z 274DEG 31KT 4697 9791 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DK

3 follow-up statements

969 
WWUS53 KFGF 130508
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1208 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

NDC003-017-130545-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150713T0545Z/
CASS ND-BARNES ND-
1208 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR WESTERN CASS AND EAST CENTRAL BARNES COUNTIES...

AT 1207 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER TOWER CITY...
OR 15 MILES EAST OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BUFFALO AROUND 1215 AM CDT.
  AYR AROUND 1220 AM CDT.
  ABSARAKA AROUND 1230 AM CDT.
  WHEATLAND AROUND 1235 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4690 9781 4706 9778 4711 9733 4675 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0507Z 274DEG 31KT 4696 9767 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DK

642 
WWUS53 KFGF 130523
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1223 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

NDC003-130532-
/O.CAN.KFGF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150713T0545Z/
BARNES ND-
1223 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL BARNES COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF 
THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 4688 9759 4708 9757 4711 9733 4681 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 274DEG 31KT 4695 9747 

$$

NDC017-130545-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150713T0545Z/
CASS ND-
1223 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1245 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY...

AT 1222 AM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BUFFALO...OR
25 MILES EAST OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ABSARAKA AROUND 1230 AM CDT.
  WHEATLAND AROUND 1235 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 4688 9759 4708 9757 4711 9733 4681 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0522Z 274DEG 31KT 4695 9747 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

DK

224 
WWUS53 KFGF 130540
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

NDC017-130550-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-150713T0545Z/
CASS ND-
1240 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 1245 AM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 4688 9759 4708 9757 4711 9733 4681 9733
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 274DEG 31KT 4695 9747 

$$

DK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 12, 11:22 PM CDT, 27 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 12, 11:22 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1122 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

NO CHANGES NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

SHORT TERM CAM MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH 2
MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS EVENING. THE FIRST INITIATES VCNTY
DEVILS LAKE BASIN WITH ANOTHER STRONGER AREA OVER THE SE FA THEN
PROPAGATING E-SE THROUGH THE EVENING. CAP HOLDING SO FAR BUT
SUFFICE TO SAY ALL CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS IN PLACE FOR POTENTIALLY
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WX EVENT. BASED ON MODEL GUIDANCE CONVECTION
SHOULD BE CLOSE TO EXITING THE FA BY SUNSET.

REMNANTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL CANADIAN MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP
THROUGH THE FA TOMORROW SO WILL MAINTAIN POPS HOWEVER AIRMASS NOT
NEARLY AS UNSTABLE. EXCEPT FOR THE SW FA TEMPERATURES WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE.

ANY REMAINING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AT SUNSET. WITH DEWPOINTS
CONTINUING IN THE 60S EXPECT SIMILAR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO MIDWEEK. RIPPLES OF ENERGY DROPPING
DOWN FRONT OF THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CHANCES FOR TSRA TO
THE REGION WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD...THUS WENT
WITH A BLENDED SOLN ATTM. LOOKING FOR A BIT OF A CHANGE TO THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN AS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WEAKENS AND
BECOMES MORE ZONAL. EXPECT TO SEE A FEW MORE IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW...TRIGGERING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY. HOWEVER...LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO TEMPERATURES...WITH
HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S AND LOWS AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH CHANCES FOR SOME CONVECTION TONIGHT
BEFORE 9Z...THEN AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. HAVE MENTIONED
SOME VCTS MAINLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH BETTER POTENTIAL IN THE
NORTH.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...DK
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...HOPKINS/VOELKER
AVIATION...DK

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 12, 6:32 AM CDT, 17 hours 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-131145-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
632 AM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AN ENHANCED RISK EXTENDING INTO FAR
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS
ACROSS THE REST OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN
MINNESOTA.

STORMS WILL BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.
THE MORNING ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY HAVE A LIGHTNING
THREAT...ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS PULSING UP TO PRODUCE 1 INCH HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THERE WILL BE
REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN
FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA NEAR THE
CENTER OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND A WARM FRONT. WITH A VERY HIGHLY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL RAPIDLY BECOME
SEVERE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

BEFORE STORMS DEVELOP...THE HOT AND HUMID AIR WILL BRING HIGH HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. LOCATIONS
FROM SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY
COULD SEE HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMB TO JUST ABOVE 100 DEGREES FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD. THE HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PROLONGED...BUT THOSE PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD
DRINK WATER AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN SETS UP WITH MULTIPLE WEAK SYSTEMS
BRINGING ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE COMING WEEK.
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE MONDAY OR TUESDAY AS WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT LIGHTENING WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY STORM. EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE STORMS IS
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

JR

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:24 PM CDT, 4 hours 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
724 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0652 PM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E VERNDALE            46.40N 94.84W
07/12/2015                   WADENA             MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WIDESPREAD TREE DAMAGE ALONG CR2... NORTH OF THE STAPLES
            AIRPORT.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:41 PM CDT, 4 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
741 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     5 WSW BARRETT           45.88N 95.99W
07/12/2015                   GRANT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PHOTO POSTED TO SOCIAL MEDIA. VIEWED FROM NEAR HERMAN.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:45 PM CDT, 4 hours 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
745 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 NW HOFFMAN            45.87N 95.84W
07/12/2015                   GRANT              MN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS LARGE TREES BROKEN DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 55
            CORRIDOR...BETWEEN BARRETT AND HOFFMAN.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:53 PM CDT, 3 hours 56 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
753 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DEER CREEK              46.39N 95.32W
07/12/2015                   OTTER TAIL         MN   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREES BROKEN DOWN AND GARDENS FLATTENED. REPORTED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:56 PM CDT, 3 hours 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
756 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     TSTM WND DMG     VERNDALE                46.40N 95.01W
07/12/2015                   WADENA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES BLOWN DOWN AND A ROOF BLOWN OFF IN TOWN. NUMEROUS
            TREES AND AND LEAST 8 TO 10 POWER POLES SNAPPED OFF EAST
            OF TOWN.

&&

GGUST

Local storm report, Jul 12, 7:58 PM CDT, 3 hours 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
758 PM CDT SUN JUL 12 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ALDRICH                 46.37N 94.94W
07/12/2015                   WADENA             MN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES BLOWN DOWN IN ALDRICH AND BETWEEN
            ALDRICH AND STAPLES ALONG CR2.

&&

GGUST

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 12, 8:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	55 min
Jul 12, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Eddy	60 min
Jul 12, 9:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	45 min
Jul 12, 9:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ramsey	34 min
Jul 12, 10:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Barnes	66 min
Jul 13, 12:25 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	FGF	Cass	65 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.