Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
330 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THE ACTIVE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE COMING
WEEK...WITH DELINEATING PERIODS WITH THE HIGHEST PRECIP
PROBABILITIES THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE.

IN THE NEAR TERM...ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH
CENTRAL AS EXPECTED. SPC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY REMAINS THROUGH THE DEVILS LAKE BASIN AND
WESTWARD...WITH UP TO 1500 J/KG SBCAPE AND 30 KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST. A STRONG TO BRIEFLY SEVERE STORM OR
TWO WITH SOME HAIL/WIND COULD IMPACT PARTS OF THE DEVILS LAKE
BASIN INTO EARLY EVENING BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING OCCURS. SEE RECENT
SWOMCD FOR MORE DETAILS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT...SO
FOG POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SUNDAY WILL BE PLEASANT...WITH WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE AND TEMPS
UP INTO THE 70S TO LOW 80S.

THE NEXT STRONGER UPPER WAVE WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER BY
TOMORROW NIGHT. AS TO BE EXPECTED...MODELS DIFFER TO SOME EXTENT
WITH PRECIP PLACEMENT SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE CURRENT THINKING
IS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE BY LATER SUNDAY AND SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT. WHILE PW VALUES WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 1.50 INCHES
OVER PARTS OF THE AREA...IT APPEARS THE AXIS OF GREATER
INSTABILITY WILL PRIMARILY STAY TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF OUR AREA.
CONVECTION MAY GRAVITATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THIS INSTABILITY
AXIS...WITH MORE PRECIP FARTHER NORTH CLOSER TO THE STRONGER
FORCING WITH THE UPPER WAVE THAT WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. HOWEVER...DETAILS REMAIN UNCERTAIN AND
FURTHER REFINEMENT TO THE TIMING AND PROJECTED INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION WILL BE NEEDED. SPC HAS INCLUDED A MARGINAL RISK FOR
SEVERE OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA FOR
THE SUN/SUN NIGHT PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ON MONDAY...AS THE SFC LOW
TRACKS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS WILL BE A BIT BREEZY FROM THE
NORTHWEST WITH COLD ADVECTION. TEMPS...DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER
AND PRECIP...SHOULD BE NEAR TO A BIT BELOW AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA MON NIGHT/TUESDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE TEMPS.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA WITH UPPER
LEVEL JET OVER THE AREA.  LOOK FOR EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND VARIOUS
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS THRU THE PD.  MODELS HINT AT ONE STRONGER
WAVE WED-WED NIGHT AND ANOTHER FRIDAY.   TEMPS NR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP THIS AFTN AND THE TIMING OF THIS
IS THE CHALLENGE THRU 00Z.  THE LOW CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND WITH
ENOUGH SUN A HIGHER BASED CU WILL FORM....BROKEN IN COVERAGE.  SKIES
WILL SCATTER OUT TOWARD SUNSET WITH VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING.  COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT/SUN MORNING
BUT NOT INCLUDED DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY ONE SPOT.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...MAKOWSKI
LONG TERM...MAKOWSKI/RIDDLE
AVIATION...RIDDLE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ008-016-027>030-038-039-
049-052-053-212045-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-PEMBINA-
EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-
RANSOM-SARGENT-RICHLAND-
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING.
ANY STORM MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NDZ006-007-014-015-024-026-054-212045-
TOWNER-CAVALIER-BENSON-RAMSEY-EDDY-NELSON-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
336 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WITH ANY STORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

DK/JAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
417 PM CDT SAT JUN 20 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TORNADO          7 E CANDO               48.49N 99.05W
06/20/2015                   TOWNER             ND   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTED TORNADO AS IT TOUCHED DOWN

&&

HOPKINS