Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Grand Forks, ND

994 
WWUS53 KFGF 160134
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
834 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

NDC003-160200-
/O.CON.KFGF.SV.W.0121.000000T0000Z-150816T0200Z/
BARNES ND-
834 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN BARNES COUNTY...

AT 833 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER ROGERS...OR 12
MILES NORTHWEST OF VALLEY CITY...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE 
         TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BALD HILL DAM AROUND 845 PM CDT.

ALSO INCLUDES INTERSTATE 94 IN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 272
AND 289.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

INTENSE THUNDERSTORM LINES CAN PRODUCE BRIEF TORNADOES AND WIDESPREAD
SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT IMMEDIATELY
LIKELY...IT IS BEST TO MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR
OF A BUILDING. THIS STORM MAY CAUSE SERIOUS INJURY AND SIGNIFICANT
PROPERTY DAMAGE.

IF ON OR NEAR LAKE ASHTABULA...GET AWAY FROM THE WATER AND MOVE 
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO 
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU 
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER 
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 4721 9847 4719 9842 4707 9798 4681 9813
      4689 9844 4698 9844 4698 9847
TIME...MOT...LOC 0133Z 282DEG 32KT 4705 9819 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$
JAM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
704 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO FIRE ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY/WIND SHIFT
THAT EXTENDED FROM NEAR LANGDON TO BRANTFORD ND. PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY WITH SURFACE BASED CAPES OF 3 TO 4 THOUSAND J/KG.

SOME HEAT INDICES REMAIN AROUND AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. HEAT INDICES SHOULD FALL BELOW 100 SHORTLY. SO WILL
LET HEAT ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 7 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/STRENGTH
TONIGHT THEN TEMPERATURES AND LATER PERIOD RAIN CHANCES. MODELS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SEVERE THREAT MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT. SUFFICIENT SHEAR/CAPE AND
INSTABILITY FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. SURFACE BOUNDARIES EXTEND
FROM ROUGHLY YWG SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL ND. MAIN
UPPER FORCING WILL BE CANADA SO QUESTION WILL BE WHEN CAP WILL
BREAK AND FOLLOWING STORM COVERAGE. GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE
CONSENSUS IS FOR GRADUAL ORGANIZATION ALONG CURRENT ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE BAND HOWEVER COVERAGE STILL IN QUESTION. AT THIS POINT
FEEL CONVECTION WILL REMAIN FAIRLY SCATTERED IN NATURE SO ONLY
MADE MINIMAL POP CHANGES THROUGH THE EVENING. ANY RESIDUAL
CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT SHOULD EXIT FA TO THE EAST BY SUNRISE.
POST FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THIS MORNING.

COOLER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD THROUGH THE FA ON SUNDAY. THIS
WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES.

CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION...LIGHT WINDS AND SKC SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE 50S WITH POSSIBLY SOME UPPER 40S
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

COLD ADVECTION LEVELS OFF HOWEVER WITH MUCH COOLER AIRMASS IN
PLACE EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RANGE IN THE 70S.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL US LATE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. STILL SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BUT AT THIS POINT BEST
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA WITH THE
NORTH MAINLY DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE SEASONALLY COOL.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL BE EXITING
THE REGION TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY (AT LEAST TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION).
ANTICIPATE A BRIEF DRY PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL PRECIP
CHANCES AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES ZONAL. TEMPERATURES MAY BE A BIT
BELOW NORMAL TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS THE AREA. A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY WAS ACROSS
THE AREA WITH A COUPLE NARROW BANDS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WITH CIGS
MOSTLY ABOVE 7 THOUSAND FT. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENING
EXCEPT NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...HOPPES
SHORT TERM...VOELKER
LONG TERM...TG/VOELKER
AVIATION...HOPPES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

MNZ001>004-007-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-026>030-038-039-049-052>054-
160900-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-WEST MARSHALL-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 7 PM CDT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE LOW 100S TODAY...SO A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.
THIS WILL BE THE LAST HOT DAY OF THIS STRETCH OF HEAT. SCATTERED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE DEVILS LAKE REGION...THEN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION BY
EARLY EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER
AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

MNZ005-006-008-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-160900-
ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-
RED LAKE-EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-
400 AM CDT SAT AUG 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAT INDICES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S TODAY. THIS WILL
BE THE LAST HOT DAY OF THIS STRETCH OF HEAT. SCATTERED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
HAIL ONE INCH OR GREATER AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.