Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
342 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE STATE THIS MORNING
WITH SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS ACROSS THE REGION. THE COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE ATL AREA AND WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION
SLOWING DOWN TODAY BUT IT IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE EAST OF THE CWA BY
00Z FRI. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED GREATLY BEHIND THIS FRONT AND SOME
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS ALABAMA. WE CURRENTLY ONLY
HAVE SOME PATCHY AREAS OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES ONLY DIMINISHED DOWN
TO 2-5 MILES. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS FOG AND
MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ONCE THE SUN
RISES ANY FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AS A MUCH
DRIER AIRMASS IS FORECASTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE. A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA TODAY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH
WILL KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT TERM.

01

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRETTY QUIET LONG TERM FORECAST STILL ON TAP.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL STILL IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWFA FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
THE RIDGE SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THERE ARE
SILL SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...WITH THE GFS STILL
DRY AND THE ECMWF HAS SWITCHED BACK TO HAVING SOME LIGHT PRECIP OVER
THE AREA. FOR THE SAKE OF CONSISTENCY...SINCE THE POPS ARE PRETTY
SMALL ANYWAY...WILL LEAVE THEM OUT FOR NOW. WILL GIVE THE MODELS A
LITTLE MORE TIME TO COME INTO LINE...INSTEAD OF FLIP FLOPPING THE
FORECAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BUILD BACK IN FOR THE FIRST OF NEXT
WEEK. COLDER TEMPS ARE EXPECTED...WITH VALUES RUNNING BETWEEN 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

NLISTEMAA

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS MOVING EAST OF THE TAF SITES WITH SOME FOG DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS ARE TURNING TO THE WEST WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY 5KT OR LESS THIS MORNING. WILL SEE WINDS TURN TO THE NW
WITH SPEEDS 12KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS ARE SLOWLY
LIFTING BEHIND THIS FRONT BUT MAY SEE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF VLIFR
CEILINGS WITH FOG DEVELOPMENT. ANY LOW CEILINGS AND FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE AS A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES IN.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...06Z UPDATE...
CONFIDENCE HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  44  64  40 /  20   0   0   0
ATLANTA         67  46  63  43 /   5   0   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     64  37  60  36 /   5   0   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    67  41  62  40 /   5   0   0   0
COLUMBUS        70  47  68  46 /  10   0   0   0
GAINESVILLE     67  45  62  41 /  10   0   0   0
MACON           72  46  68  42 /  30   0   0   0
ROME            66  41  62  39 /   5   0   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  68  42  64  40 /  10   0   0   0
VIDALIA         77  51  69  46 /  60  20   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
254 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

HEAVY RAINFALL HAS HELPED PUSH SOME RIVERS AND CREEKS INTO MINOR
FLOOD STAGE. SEVERAL RIVER FLOOD WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
359 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

GAZ062-073>076-084-085-097-191000-
JOHNSON GA-WILKINSON GA-GLASCOCK GA-WASHINGTON GA-LAURENS GA-
BALDWIN GA-JEFFERSON GA-WARREN GA-
359 AM EST THU NOV 19 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON...EASTERN
WILKINSON...GLASCOCK...WASHINGTON...NORTHERN LAURENS...EASTERN
BALDWIN...JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 AM
EST...

AT 358 AM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR TOOMSBORO...OR 7 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF IRWINTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY.
           ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN
           EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR
           DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
           AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO
           HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO
           TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
SANDERSVILLE...LOUISVILLE...WRIGHTSVILLE...GIBSON...IRWINTON...
WRENS...WADLEY...DAVISBORO...TENNILLE...MCINTYRE...HARRISON...
TOOMSBORO...STAPLETON...BARTOW...OCONEE...AVERA...MITCHELL...
DEEPSTEP...RIDDLEVILLE AND EDGE HILL.

LAT...LON 3315 8227 3307 8229 3295 8227 3289 8229
      3256 8301 3290 8325 3334 8248 3333 8242
      3331 8240 3331 8234 3330 8231 3327 8229
      3327 8226 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 0858Z 235DEG 32KT 3274 8309