River Flood Warning 95, NWS Atlanta, GA

171 
WGUS82 KFFC 190410
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Big Creek near Cumming affecting Forsyth County 

  Big Creek near Alpharetta affecting Forsyth and Fulton Counties 

  Suwanee Creek near Suwanee affecting Gwinnett County 

  Yellow River near East Lithonia affecting De Kalb and Rockdale 
  Counties 

  Yellow River near Conyers below Milstead affecting Newton and 
  Rockdale Counties 

  Ocmulgee River near Macon affecting Bibb...Houston...Jones...
  Monroe and Twiggs Counties 

  Middle Oconee River near Arcade affecting Barrow and Jackson 
  Counties 

  Oconee River near Penfield affecting Clarke...Greene and Oconee 
  Counties 
  
  Sweetwater Creek near Lilburn in Gwinnett County


GAC117-191242-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0092.000000T0000Z-151119T1242Z/
/CMGG1.1.ER.151119T0126Z.151119T0500Z.151119T0642Z.UU/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek near Cumming.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.9 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 6.0 feet.
* At 7 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand into the natural 
  flood plain of the creek upstream and downstream from the gage at 
  Atlanta Highway or Georgia Highway 9. Large portions of the 
  sidewalk and boardwalk of the Big Creek Greenway will be flooded. 
  The areas under the Georgia 400 Highway and McFarland Road will be 
  covered with around two feet of water. A portion of the sidewalk 
  under Majors Road will be covered with around 3 feet of water. 
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 7.0 feet on Mar 3 2012.  

&&

LAT...LON 3418 8424 3417 8420 3411 8419 3410 8420
      3410 8425 3411 8424             

$$

GAC117-121-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0093.000000T0000Z-151121T0949Z/
/APHG1.1.ER.151119T0107Z.151119T1200Z.151121T0349Z.NO/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Big Creek near Alpharetta.
* Until late Friday night.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 7.6 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 7.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 8.4 feet by tomorrow 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage Friday before 
  midnight.
* At 8.0 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand further into the 
  woodlands and fields along the creek from near Cumming in south 
  Forsyth County to Alpharetta and Roswell in north Fulton County. 
  Additional portions of The Big Creek Greenway have minor flooding 
  with 1 to 2 feet of water. Most of the walking and biking paths 
  will be closed...especially upstream and downstream from the gage 
  on Kimball Bridge Road and near Rock Hill Park. Portions of the 
  YMCA Campground off Preston Ridge Road will flood.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.4 feet on Jul 4 2015.  

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8420 3404 8425 3402 8430
      3404 8433 3407 8427             

$$

GAC135-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0094.151119T1030Z-151120T0300Z/
/SWEG1.1.ER.151119T1030Z.151119T1200Z.151119T2100Z.NO/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Suwanee Creek near Suwanee.
* From early tomorrow until Thursday evening.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.3 feet and rising.
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 8.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early tomorrow and continue 
  to rise to near 8.6 feet by tomorrow morning.The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* At 9.0 feet...Minor flooding expands along the creek upstream and 
  downstream from the gage at U S Highway 23 or Buford Highway. Most 
  of the Suwanee Creek Greenway and trails are flooded from the 
  Suwanee Creek Park to George Pierce Park. The minor flooding will 
  also begin to affect portions of the playground area behind the 
  Suwanee Elementary School. 
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 8.6 feet on Mar 28 2009.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3412 8403 3410 8396 3403 8398 3401 8413
      3403 8412 3406 8409             

$$

GAC135-190440-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0095.000000T0000Z-151119T1112Z/
/STWG1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Sweetwater Creek near Lilburn.
* This takes affect immediately.
* Until Thursday morning.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 10.6 feet and slowly rising.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* At 11.0 feet...Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding will occur in
  portions of the Northwood Country Club Golf Course upstream from 
  the gage on Club Drive...and in the woodland areas downstream from 
  the gage and for the next four miles until the creek merges with 
  the Yellow River. An old concrete golf cart bridge around 300 feet 
  downstream from the gage will begin to flood.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 11.1 feet on Jun 1 2010.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3398 8414 3398 8407 3391 8406 3389 8408 3389 8412


$$

GAC089-247-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0096.151119T1118Z-151120T0900Z/
/YLOG1.1.ER.151119T1118Z.151119T1800Z.151120T0300Z.UU/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Yellow River near East Lithonia.
* From tomorrow morning until late Thursday night.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.0 feet and rising.
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
  to rise to near 14.1 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow late evening.
* At 15.0 feet...Minor flooding continues and expands further into 
  the woodlands and fields near the river upstream and downstream 
  from the gage on Pleasant Hill Road. In Dekalb County...some 
  flooding of backyards of homes begin on Harmony Hills Drive and 
  Court. Johnson Creek flowing under Union Grove Road into the river 
  begins to back up.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 13.6 feet on Feb 6 2010.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8409 3377 8402 3372 8399 3367 8403


$$

GAC217-247-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0097.151119T1657Z-151120T2100Z/
/MYRG1.1.ER.151119T1657Z.151120T0000Z.151120T1500Z.UU/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Yellow River near Conyers below Milstead.
* From tomorrow late morning until Friday afternoon.
* At 10PM Wednesday the stage was 4.3 feet...and 
  rising/falling/steady.
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and 
  continue to rise to near 12.4 feet by tomorrow evening.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* At 12.0 feet...Minor flooding continues in the woodlands...fields 
  and pasture along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  on Gees Mill Road in Rockdale County. Large portions of Sockwell 
  Road by the river in Newton County will be up to 3 feet under 
  water.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 12.4 feet on Mar 29 2009.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8399 3371 8395 3359 8387 3356 8393


$$

GAC021-153-169-207-289-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0098.151121T0336Z-151124T0142Z/
/MACG1.1.ER.151121T0336Z.151122T0600Z.151123T1942Z.NO/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ocmulgee River near Macon.
* From Friday before midnight until Monday evening.
* At 10PM Wednesday the stage was 8.0 feet and rising.
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by Friday before midnight and 
  continue to rise to near 20.3 feet by early Sunday morning.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Monday early afternoon.
* At 20.0 feet...Minor flooding expands. An increasing amount of the 
  Macon GreenWay Ocmulgee Heritage Trail floods north of the Martin 
  Luther King Boulevard bridge. The flood waters will be around one 
  foot deep on portions of the trail and both banks overflow upstream
  from the bridge. Large portions of agricultural lands well 
  downstream will be under one to three feet of water.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 20.4 feet on Oct 14 2009.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8372 3293 8367 3282 8356 3266 8353
      3263 8359 3274 8363             

$$

GAC013-157-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0099.151119T1133Z-151120T0752Z/
/ACDG1.1.ER.151119T1133Z.151119T1800Z.151120T0152Z.NO/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Middle Oconee River near Arcade.
* From tomorrow morning until late Thursday night.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 5.7 feet and rising.
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 16.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tomorrow morning and continue
  to rise to near 18.6 feet by tomorrow early afternoon.The river 
  will fall below flood stage by tomorrow evening.
* At 18.0 feet...Minor flooding continues in the woodlands...fields 
  and pasture upstream and downstream from the gage at Georgia 
  Highway 82. A few dirt access roads and a residential yard just 
  downstream will be flooded with up to two feet of water.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 18.9 feet on Feb 6 2010.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3404 8377 3410 8375 3406 8355 3400 8347
      3395 8352 3402 8363             

$$

GAC059-133-219-191810-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0100.151120T0600Z-151122T0530Z/
/PNFG1.1.ER.151120T0600Z.151121T0600Z.151121T2330Z.NO/
1110 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oconee River near Penfield.
* From early Friday morning until late Saturday night.
* At 10 PM Wednesday the stage was 6.1 feet and rising.
* Nonflood flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Friday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 16.4 feet by early Saturday morning.The 
  river will fall below flood stage by Saturday evening.
* At 17.0 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand into fields...
  woodlands and pastures near the river. The water level is very 
  close to Ward Road on the right bank. Flood waters will be 
  approaching irrigation systems and they may need to be moved to 
  higher ground.
* This crest compares to a previous crest of 16.4 feet on Jan 12 2014.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3364 8325 3364 8333 3383 8333 3384 8327


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
725 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...TORNADO WATCH STILL IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA
UNTIL 9 PM AND FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING WHILE WIND ADVISORY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

.UPDATE...
HAVE ALLOWED WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE PER RECENT OBS TRENDING BELOW
CRITERIA. STILL COULD SEE STRONG GUSTS IN BOWING SEGMENTS ALONG
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO A MACON
TO ATHENS ZONE ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED QUICK TORNADO SPIN UP
POSSIBLE. TOR WATCH STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL GA AND FLOOD WATCH STILL IN EFFECT UNTIL TOMORROW MORNING
FOR NORTH GA. OTHERWISE POPS AND TEMPS ALL TRENDING AS FORECAST
WITH NO ADJUSTMENTS NECESSARY. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OVERNIGHT
FOG POTENTIAL AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN AND WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR WITH FUTURE UPDATES. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

BAKER

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015/

UPDATE...
THE LINE OF HEAVIER CONVECTION IS PUSHING EAST AT AROUND 20-25
MPH. THE TORNADO THREAT HAS ENDED FOR COUNTIES NOW WEST OF THE
MAIN LINE. THEREFORE... HAVE REMOVED THESE COUNTIES FROM THE
TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 9 PM. WEAKENING INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DIMINISH THE TORNADO THREAT THIS
EVENING... BUT WILL CONTINUE WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL CLOSELY FOR
COUNTIES STILL EAST OF THE MAIN LINE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. /39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015/

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING EAST ACROSS ALABAMA...WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN AL SEWD TO THE GEORGIA COAST...PLACING THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR.

WIND ADVISORY AND FLOOD WATCH STILL IN AFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.

SQUALL LINE/QLCS CONTINUING TO PUSH ACROSS THE SE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE NORTHWARD EXTENSION AFFECTING PARTS OF NW GA
AT AFD TIME. WILL SEE THIS LINE CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
CWA FOR THE REMAINDER OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

BIG QUESTION REGARDING THIS SYSTEM IS THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS ACROSS THE REGION REVEALS STRONG DIVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PARENT CYCLONE OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN ADDITION...
A SHORTWAVE OVER THE ARKLATEX AREA IS ROUNDING THE BASE OF A LARGER
SCALE TROUGH...WHICH MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. THESE FEATURES WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY SYNOPTIC
SCALE ASCENT TO MAINTAIN THE QLCS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

IN ADDITION...LATEST REFRESH OF SPC MESOANALYSIS DATA REVEALS VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHEAR AND HELICITY VALUES...WITH 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES
GREATER THAN 40KTS AND 0-3 HELICITY VALUES STANDING NEAR 600M2/S2 IN
SOME LOCATIONS. THESE VALUES FAVOR THE CONTINUED ORGANIZATION OF THE
MULTICELL COMPLEX AS WELL AS A FEW SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.
IMPRESSIVE 0-1KM SHEAR /40KTS/ AND 0-1 HELICITY /300M2S2/ ALSO
SUPPORT THE RISK FOR ROTATION ALONG THE LINE OR WITHIN ANY
DISCRETE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT
LACKLUSTER...WITH SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING REVEALING JUST UNDER
1000J/KG SBCAPE. THIS WILL KEEP WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER TO A
MINIMUM...THOUGH ANY STRONGER CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN OR AHEAD OF
THE QLCS COULD GENERATE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW ISOLATED
TORNADOES. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING AND
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS BOTH THE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENTS BECOMES LESS FAVORABLE FOR QLCS MAINTENANCE.

QLCS TO CLEAR THE AREA OVERNIGHT FROM W TO E. SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS SE ZONES THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. COLD
AIR ADVECTION FILTERING IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A DRY
AND RATHER PLEASANT DAY...WITH GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD BEFORE A REINFORCING COLD FRONT BRINGS
COOLER AIR TO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND.

KOVACIK/ATWELL

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PREVIOUS LONG TERM LOOKS GOOD. NO CHANGES PLANNED. PREVIOUS LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

17

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

LOOKS TO BE A VERY TRANQUIL LONG TERM PERIOD AND IT STARTS OUT THU
NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS WHILE COLD FRONT THAT HAD AFFECTED THE AREA MOVES INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA. HIGH BRIDGES ACROSS NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON PROVIDING MORE OF A MODERATING EASTERLY FLOW
REGIME THAN A COLD NORTH ONE. COMBINED WITH CONTINUED ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AND WE WILL NOT SEE TEMPS MAKE ALL THAT MUCH OF A CHANGE AND
IN FACT HIGHS ON FRI WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. LIKEWISE...LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO EVEN
GET INTO THE UPPER 30S OVER NORTH GA WHILE MID 40S WILL BE THE
RULE OVER CENTRAL PORTIONS.

NEXT FRONT IS ON TAP FOR SATURDAY AND WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENTLY DRY IN ITS SOLUTION...THE ECMWF HAS BEEN BACK AND
FORTH THE PAST FEW NIGHTS ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. TONIGHTS RUN IS DECIDEDLY DRIER AND VERY CLOSE TO
THE GFS SO WILL SHOW A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM FOR
THIS GRIDS UPDATE.

DEFINITELY MORE COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS STRONG
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH AND WE SEE A SHORT LIVED BUT SIGNIFICANT
TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING TEMPS DOWN TO BELOW NORMAL
WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET TO 50 ON SUNDAY AND THE COLDEST AIR
OF THIS SEASON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD MID TO UPPER 20S OVER
NORTH GEORGIA. ...WIND ADVISORY NORTH GEORGIA UNTIL 7 PM...
.FLOOD WATCH NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

DEESE

&&

.AVIATION...
00 UPDATE...
INITIAL MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND VSBYS AS AREA OF SHRA AND EMBEDDED
POSSIBLE TS PUSHES EAST. STRONGEST CONVECTION BRINGING WIND GUSTS
UP TO 30 KTS SHOULD IMPACT KAHN AND KMCN SHORTLY AFTER 00Z HERE
THEN -SHRA BEHIND AND LOWER WINDS. LLWS WILL CONTINUE UP TO 020
NEAR ATL THRU 03Z WITH 160040KTS AT 020 /POSSIBLY TRANSITIONING
MORE SSW/. POTENTIAL FOR LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN WAKE OF HEAVY RAIN
FOR EARLY MORNING FOG BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF FOR
THE MOMENT AND WILL ADDRESS IN FUTURE UPDATES TONIGHT. OTHERWISE
WINDS SHIFTING SOON TO SW AND EVENTUALLY NW FOR THURSDAY NEAR 10
KTS OR LESS AND PERHAPS SOME LOW END GUSTS. SHOULD SCATTER OUT AND
IMPROVE TO VFR GRADUALLY AFTER 11-15Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON OVERNIGHT CIG/VSBYS.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          58  70  44  65 / 100  20   0   0
ATLANTA         54  67  45  64 /  90  10   0   0
BLAIRSVILLE     48  65  38  61 / 100  10   0   0
CARTERSVILLE    48  66  40  63 /  70   5   0   0
COLUMBUS        57  71  47  68 /  90  10   0   0
GAINESVILLE     53  67  44  62 / 100  10   0   0
MACON           62  71  45  68 / 100  30   0   0
ROME            46  66  40  63 /  60   5   0   0
PEACHTREE CITY  53  67  41  65 /  90  10   0   0
VIDALIA         68  73  50  69 / 100  60   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
BANKS...BARROW...BARTOW...CARROLL...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...
CHEROKEE...CLARKE...CLAYTON...COBB...COWETA...DADE...DAWSON...
DEKALB...DOUGLAS...FANNIN...FAYETTE...FLOYD...FORSYTH...GILMER...
GORDON...GREENE...GWINNETT...HALL...HARALSON...HEARD...HENRY...
JACKSON...LUMPKIN...MADISON...MORGAN...MURRAY...NEWTON...NORTH
FULTON...OCONEE...OGLETHORPE...PAULDING...PICKENS...POLK...
ROCKDALE...SOUTH FULTON...TALIAFERRO...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...
WALTON...WHITE...WHITFIELD...WILKES.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BIBB...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DOOLY...HOUSTON...LAMAR...
MACON...MONROE...PEACH...SCHLEY...SUMTER...TAYLOR...UPSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...39/BAKER
LONG TERM....39
AVIATION...BAKER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
717 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
717 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM THURSDAY...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING.

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL AHEAD OF THE FRONT... STRONG
WIND SHEAR WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TO
PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THE MID TO LATE EVENING
HOURS.

THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS... BUT AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH MID EVENING. THE MAIN SEVERE
THREAT WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ATHENS TO
MACON TO CORDELE AND MAINLY THROUGH 9 OR 10 PM THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. FOR THIS REASON A
FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH GEORGIA. SEE THE LATEST
FLOOD WATCH STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
553 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ033-034-045>048-057-182330-
DEKALB GA-HENRY GA-NORTH FULTON GA-NEWTON GA-GWINNETT GA-ROCKDALE GA-
WALTON GA-
553 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN DEKALB...NORTHERN
HENRY...NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN NEWTON...GWINNETT...ROCKDALE AND
NORTHWESTERN WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EST...

AT 553 PM EST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS OVER LILBURN...OR 8 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF LAWRENCEVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS 40 TO 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LAWRENCEVILLE...CONYERS...COVINGTON...DULUTH...SUGAR HILL...
SNELLVILLE...SUWANEE...BUFORD...LILBURN...LOGANVILLE...NORCROSS...
DORAVILLE...STONE MOUNTAIN...DACULA...GRAYSON...OXFORD...LITHONIA...
BERKELEY LAKE...PORTERDALE AND WALNUT GROVE.

LAT...LON 3415 8401 3394 8380 3393 8380 3389 8375
      3350 8393 3350 8414 3375 8412 3393 8427
      3406 8415 3405 8410 3407 8412 3410 8411
      3416 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2253Z 231DEG 30KT 3390 8413

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
603 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0448 PM     TORNADO          2 SSE GOODES            33.51N  84.72W
11/18/2015                   COWETA             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AT LEAST FOUR HOMES DAMAGED ON GEORGE WYNN RD AND LEA
            WAY. FRONT PORCH WAS REMOVED FROM ONE HOME AND ROOF
            DAMAGE TO AT LEAST ONE HOME.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500675

RWILLIS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
624 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ023>025-034-035-047-190015-
GWINNETT GA-BARROW GA-BANKS GA-JACKSON GA-HALL GA-WALTON GA-
624 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN GWINNETT...BARROW...
SOUTHWESTERN BANKS...JACKSON...SOUTHERN HALL AND NORTHERN WALTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EST...

AT 623 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR REST HAVEN TO NEAR AUBURN TO NEAR DACULA...AND MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND AND ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. WHILE
           WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND
           BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS...THE LEADING
           EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS ALSO EXHIBITED AREAS OF
           LOCALIZED ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD QUICKLY FORM.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
GAINESVILLE...WINDER...JEFFERSON...COMMERCE...SUGAR HILL...BUFORD...
BRASELTON...AUBURN...FLOWERY BRANCH...DACULA...OAKWOOD...LULA...
STATHAM...MAYSVILLE...ARCADE...HOSCHTON...BETHLEHEM...PENDERGRASS...
CARL AND GILLSVILLE.

LAT...LON 3443 8366 3424 8344 3400 8346 3399 8349
      3400 8350 3399 8350 3387 8388 3400 8392
      3412 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 237DEG 30KT 3410 8394 3403 8387 3394 8385

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
626 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ035>037-047>049-057-190015-
HENRY GA-MORGAN GA-OCONEE GA-NEWTON GA-BARROW GA-CLARKE GA-WALTON GA-
626 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN HENRY...NORTHWESTERN
MORGAN...NORTHWESTERN OCONEE...NEWTON...SOUTHEASTERN BARROW...WESTERN
CLARKE AND WALTON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EST...

AT 625 PM EST...A LINE OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LOGANVILLE TO JERSEY TO 8
MILES NORTHEAST OF JENKINSBURG...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MONROE...COVINGTON...LOGANVILLE...SOCIAL CIRCLE...STATHAM...OXFORD...
PORTERDALE...WALNUT GROVE...BOGART...RUTLEDGE...NEWBORN...NORTH HIGH
SHOALS...MANSFIELD...BOSTWICK...BETWEEN...GOOD HOPE...JERSEY...
ATHENS-CLARKE COUNTY...GRATIS AND CAMPTON.

LAT...LON 3389 8342 3356 8360 3342 8400 3370 8386
      3387 8388 3400 8345
TIME...MOT...LOC 2325Z 241DEG 28KT 3389 8384 3374 8380 3344 8397

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
652 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ080-081-190015-
TAYLOR GA-CRAWFORD GA-
652 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN TAYLOR AND WESTERN
CRAWFORD COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EST...

AT 652 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES WEST OF ROBERTA
TO 6 MILES NORTH OF IDEAL...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

  HAZARD...ENHANCED RISK OF A BRIEF TORNADO.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. THE
           LEADING EDGE OF THIS LINE OF STORMS HAS EXHIBITED AREAS
           OF LOCALIZED ROTATION. A BRIEF TORNADO COULD QUICKLY
           FORM.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ROBERTA...REYNOLDS...HORNS...POTTERVILLE...FICKLING MILL...
KNOXVILLE...NAKOMIS AND MUSELLA.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3244 8421 3272 8422 3269 8420 3278 8416
      3285 8404 3285 8398 3286 8398 3285 8395
      3256 8396 3253 8401 3252 8405 3252 8403
      3251 8404 3251 8411 3247 8415
TIME...MOT...LOC 2352Z 230DEG 33KT 3272 8420 3246 8421

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
714 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

GAZ081-082-190045-
CRAWFORD GA-BIBB GA-
714 PM EST WED NOV 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CRAWFORD AND WESTERN BIBB
COUNTIES UNTIL 745 PM EST...

AT 714 PM EST...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR CULLODEN TO NEAR ROBERTA TO 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF REYNOLDS TO
NEAR FORT VALLEY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MACON...ROBERTA...HORNS...LAKE TOBESOFKEE...KNOXVILLE...LEE POPE...
SANDY POINT...LIZELLA...JACK BROWN ESTATES...NAKOMIS AND SKIPPERTON.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT. CONTINUE TO MONITOR NOAA WEATHER
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV OR OTHER MEDIA OUTLETS FOR FURTHER STATEMENTS OR
POSSIBLE WARNINGS ON THESE STORMS.

LAT...LON 3254 8400 3282 8402 3285 8396 3285 8390
      3291 8379 3276 8369 3269 8371 3269 8377
      3259 8393 3256 8395 3256 8396
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 247DEG 31KT 3283 8401 3274 8398 3266 8399 3260
8397 3256 8398