Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...

NAM... GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WELL AT 18Z WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN... SHOWING STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY QUICKLY
APPROACHING THE MID TO LOWER MS VALLEY REGIONS... AND A SURFACE COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR WESTERN TN. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME SUBTLE
DIFFERENCES IN FRONTAL TIMING AND WHETHER THE DRIVING SHORT WAVE
WILL CUT OFF AN UPPER LOW EITHER OVER GA OR THE CAROLINAS SATURDAY
MORNING. THE NAM IS SLOWEST AND MORE AGGRESSIVE... CUTTING OFF THE
UPPER LOW OVER NORTH GA BY MID-LATE SATURDAY MORNING... KEEPING
CLOUDS AND PRECIP AROUND MUCH LONGER THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
AND LATEST ECMWF HINT AT CUTTING OFF THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST EITHER LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. EITHER
WAY... STILL EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO FAR NW GA SOMETIME
AROUND MID THIS EVENING... ACROSS THE ATLANTA METRO AREA SHORTLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT... THEN ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS SHOW THE
STRONGEST AND GREATER COVERAGE OF CONVECTION... MAINLY SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS... PUSHING INTO NW GA BY MID TO LATE
THIS EVENING... ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH GA THROUGH 3-4 AM SATURDAY
MORNING... THEN WEAKENING AND PUSHING ACROSS CENTRAL GA BETWEEN 5 AM
AND NOONISH ON SATURDAY. INSTABILITIES AND WIND SHEAR VALUES REMAIN
MODEST... SO NO SEVER STORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS ARE INCREASING
OVERALL RAINFALL TOTALS A BIT... NOW SHOWING AROUND 1/2 TO 1 INCH
ACROSS NORTH GA AND 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH ACROSS CENTRAL GA THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING. OF COURSE... ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THESE AMOUNTS WITH
NO PROBLEM... SO NO SIGNIFICANT FLOOD PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED. CLOUDS
AND PATCHY LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY LINGER ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
SATURDAY NIGHT... AS AMPLE WRAP AROUND MOISTURE/CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. HOWEVER... WILL SHOW GRADUAL
SCATTERING OF CLOUDS FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY NIGHT FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...A MOS BLEND OF TEMPS AND POPS LOOKED REASONABLE THROUGH
PERIOD... WITH CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS EXPECTED... AND DECREASING
RAIN CHANCES ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.

39

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK LARGELY BENIGN. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAINFALL ACROSS PRIMARILY THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. NOT LOOKING AT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL TOTALS GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. PREVIOUS LONG
TERM DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RW

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 421 AM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015/

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM. THEY START OUT BY
SHOWING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN THE SHORT TERM EXITING THE SE CORNER
OF THE STATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING. STILL KEEPING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRECIP SUNDAY MORNING BUT THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH OFF THE GA COAST BY DAY BREAK. THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE
CHANCE OF PRECIP BEFORE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM ENTERS THE AREA TUE.
THIS SECOND FRONT IS MUCH WEAKER AND DRIER AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH
MORE THAN A CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH THIS FRONT ACROSS THE CWA.
INSTABILITIES ARE VERY WEAK AS IT MOVES THROUGH SO KEEPING MOSTLY
SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. THIS SECOND FRONT BEGINS ENTERING NW GA
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TUES. THIS FRONT PUSHES QUICKLY THROUGH THE
STATE AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER BEHIND IT PUSHES EAST. THIS
FRONT WILL BE EAST OF THE STATE BY 06Z WED AS THIS HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST STATES BY
12-18Z WED. THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN
THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR EARLY TONIGHT BUT BECOMING MVFR AS FRONT PUSHES INTO GA OVERNIGHT.
SOME IFR EXPECTED AS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP BY 04Z.
SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING BUT SHOULD DIMINISH FROM THE WEST
AFTER 15Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT OF CEILINGS. WINDS SOUTHWEST 4 TO 6KT
OR LESS SHIFTING TO NW AFTER 06Z AND INCREASING TO 10 TO 15KT AFTER
15Z SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CEILINGS AND TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  69  56  72 /  70  70  20   0
ATLANTA         64  71  59  73 /  70  50  10   0
BLAIRSVILLE     60  66  54  71 /  70  50  10   0
CARTERSVILLE    62  71  57  74 /  70  40  10   0
COLUMBUS        65  77  60  76 /  60  50   5   0
GAINESVILLE     62  68  56  71 /  70  60  10   0
MACON           64  76  60  74 /  60  60  10   0
ROME            62  72  56  75 /  70  40  10   0
PEACHTREE CITY  62  73  57  74 /  70  50  10   0
VIDALIA         67  77  61  73 /  50  60  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
730 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101645-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
730 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AS IT PUSHES INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. INSTABILITY WILL BE
MARGINAL...SO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY BRINGING
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
839 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

GAZ001>003-100130-
DADE GA-CATOOSA GA-WALKER GA-
839 PM EDT FRI OCT 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DADE...WESTERN CATOOSA AND WALKER
COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM EDT...

AT 837 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM WEST OF
LOOKOUT MOUNTAIN TO NEAR TRENTON TO NORTHWEST OF RISING FAWN...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...30 TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF LIGHT...
           UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD NOT BE
           USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LAFAYETTE...RINGGOLD...TRENTON...FORT OGLETHORPE...CHICKAMAUGA...RISING
FAWN...NAOMI...BOYNTON...NOBLE...COOPER HEIGHTS...NEW ENGLAND...COLE
CITY...INDIAN SPRINGS...FAIRVIEW...WOOD STATION...STEPHENSVILLE...
CHATTANOOGA VALLEY...BLUE SPRING AND CLOUDLAND CANYON STATE PARK.

LAT...LON 3498 8560 3497 8510 3472 8517 3464 8526
      3458 8536 3459 8539 3461 8541 3472 8556
TIME...MOT...LOC 0037Z 292DEG 18KT 3497 8548 3490 8550 3482 8553 3478
8560