Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
855 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TROPICAL LOW PULLING NORTHEAST
OUT OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL KEEP
SHOWERS/TSTORMS GOING THROUGH SUNSET...THEN THERE SHOULD BE A
DIMINISHING IN THE ACTIVITY. A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY BRINGING AN INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TO THE
CWA. WILL BRING POPS BACK TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NORTH GA...SPREADING THE LIKELY POPS INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ALL
OF NORTH GA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THERE SHOULD BE A HIGHER RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND WITH THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE
CWA...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME BRIEF LOCALIZED FLOODING. THIS WILL DRIFT INTO CENTRAL
GEORGIA THURSDAY NIGHT KEEPING LIKELY POPS GOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
CWA.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND TONIGHT...WILL BE GOING
CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE ON LOWS TONIGHT. GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON MAX
TEMPS THURSDAY WITH CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE TEMPS FOR LOWS ON THURSDAY
NIGHT.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. SLOW MOVING COLD
FRONT APPROACHING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WEAKENS AS IT MOVES OVER THE AREA. AN AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE ASSOCIATED. THIS WILL KEEP PRECIP CHANCES ON THE HIGH SIDE
OF THINGS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH DEVELOPING FRIDAY
WITH AN UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE OH VALLEY AREA SUNDAY MORNING AND
MOVING TO THE NE STATES/SE CANADA LATE MONDAY AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THE MOVEMENT
OF THE UPPER SYSTEM CAUSES A COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY...USHERING IN A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND START OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL STARTING WITH SATURDAYS
HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE 50S FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA SUNDAY
AND MONDAY MORNINGS.

01

&&

.AVIATION... 00Z UPDATE...

PRIMARY CONCERN IS TSRA CONFIDENCE AND TIMING. APPEARS SHRA/TSRA
WILL DISSIPATE BY 03Z TONIGHT AND SHOULD REDEVELOP AFTER 18Z THUR.
SHOULD ALSO SEE MVFR STRATUS AROUND 1500FT AFTER 08Z. WEST COMPONENT
WINDS EXPECTED THRU FCST.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE ON TSRA LIKELIHOOD AND TIMING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  86  70  84 /  70  60  60  50
ATLANTA         72  84  70  82 /  70  60  60  50
BLAIRSVILLE     66  78  66  79 /  70  70  60  40
CARTERSVILLE    71  84  69  83 /  70  70  60  50
COLUMBUS        73  87  73  84 /  40  60  60  60
GAINESVILLE     70  82  69  82 /  70  70  60  40
MACON           72  89  72  85 /  40  50  60  60
ROME            70  83  67  84 /  70  70  60  40
PEACHTREE CITY  72  83  71  82 /  60  60  60  50
VIDALIA         73  91  74  88 /  40  30  40  60

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-101615-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1213 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS AFTERNOON EXPECT
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK TO MARGINAL SO NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LIMITS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
947 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

GAZ031>033-043-044-053-054-100230-
COBB GA-NORTH FULTON GA-PAULDING GA-SOUTH FULTON GA-COWETA GA-
FAYETTE GA-DOUGLAS GA-
947 PM EDT WED SEP 9 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COBB...SOUTHWESTERN
NORTH FULTON...SOUTHEASTERN PAULDING...SOUTH FULTON...NORTHEASTERN
COWETA...FAYETTE AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES UNTIL 1030 PM EDT...

AT 947 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS EXTENDING FROM
NEAR HIRAM TO NEAR CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY TO NEAR SHARPSBURG...
AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ATLANTA...NEWNAN...DOUGLASVILLE...FAYETTEVILLE...PEACHTREE CITY...
EAST POINT...UNION CITY...VILLA RICA...COLLEGE PARK...POWDER
SPRINGS...FAIRBURN...TYRONE...AUSTELL...PALMETTO...HIRAM...SENOIA...
SHARPSBURG...TURIN...CHATTAHOOCHEE HILL COUNTRY AND LITHIA SPRINGS.

LAT...LON 3387 8462 3366 8445 3334 8446 3332 8477
      3360 8481 3378 8490 3383 8494
TIME...MOT...LOC 0147Z 238DEG 20KT 3385 8483 3362 8469 3335 8471

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