Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
340 PM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT. ALL AGREE THE TROPICAL LOW WILL
DRIFT NORTH INTO SOUTHWEST GEORGIA AND WEAKEN IT. PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE REMAINS IN THE RISK OF THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING ALTHOUGH THAT RISK IS QUITE LOW. SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. RESIDUAL MOISTURE WITH THE WEAKENING TROPICAL LOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE CWA WEDNESDAY WITH THE DEEPEST MOISTURE ACROSS NORTH
GA. WILL PUT LIKELY POPS ACROSS NORTH GA AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS
CENTRAL GA WEDNESDAY. POPS WILL DROP OFF WEDNESDAY NIGHT MOST AREAS.
HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TOWARD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POPS WILL REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS EXTREME NORTH GA. TEMPS WILL
BE PRETTY CLOSE TO PERSISTENCE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND GUIDANCE
HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS.

17

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE EXTENDED STARTS OFF WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A SURFACE
FRONT MOVING INTO NW GA THURSDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME DEEP
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A
GULF OF MEXICO CONNECTION WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT.
THIS FRONT PUSHES THOUGH THE AREA THU/FRI AND STALL ACROSS SOUTH
GA/NORTH FL FRI NIGHT/SAT. THIS FRONT DOES NOT MAKE MUCH HEADWAY
SOUTH AND EAST UNTIL A SECOND FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVE INTO THE AREA SUN. THIS SECOND FRONTAL SYSTEM DOES
NOT HAVE MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT BUT IT DOES HAVE A VERY
LARGE AIRMASS OF DRYER AIR BEHIND IT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW
THIS DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY AND KEEPING THINGS
DRY AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BE THE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED NOW THROUGH SAT. QPF
NUMBERS ARE SHOWING 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED AS THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDER
DONE AS PWS EVERY 6 HOURS THROUGH 12Z SUN STAY ABOVE 1.7IN. THE
PWS DROP OFF RAPIDLY AFTER THAT BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME PLACES GETTING 2-4 INCHES TOTAL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
WILL DEF KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS IT COULD POSSIBLE CAUSE SOME MINOR
FLOODING ISSUES.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. CIGS HAVE DONE VFR MOST
AREAS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL
SUNSET. THERE IS A RISK OF THUNDER ALTHOUGH THE RISK IS LOW ENOUGH
TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. EXPECT SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP
LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. CIGS WILL FALL TO MVFR AFTER 06Z AND TO
IFR LATE TONIGHT ALONG WITH ISOLATED-SCATTERED SHOWERS. WINDS WILL
BECOME NEAR CALM TONIGHT...THEN LIGHT SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON CIGS.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  83  70  86 /  70  60  60  60
ATLANTA         71  83  71  84 /  70  70  70  60
BLAIRSVILLE     67  80  65  78 /  60  70  70  70
CARTERSVILLE    69  84  70  85 /  70  70  70  70
COLUMBUS        72  88  72  87 /  70  40  40  50
GAINESVILLE     70  81  70  82 /  60  70  70  60
MACON           71  87  72  88 /  70  40  40  50
ROME            69  85  70  84 /  60  70  70  70
PEACHTREE CITY  70  83  69  85 /  70  70  60  60
VIDALIA         72  90  73  90 /  70  40  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1111 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-091515-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1111 AM EDT TUE SEP 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. SOME GUSTY WINDS
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF AND
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA. WITH DAYTIME HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD
ACROSS THE AREA. INSTABILITIES ARE WEAK TO MARGINAL SO NOT
EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SOME STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

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