Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
333 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT RADAR LOOP SHOWS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND MAIN LOW PRESSURE
CENTER ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
MOVING NORTH TO NORTHEAST AND WILL WEAKEN AS IT DOES. THE MODELS
ALSO SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF MOISTURE OVER N GA AND THE CAROLINAS
MOVING NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO END THE PRECIPITATION
OVER THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW LEFT OVER SHOWERS
ACROSS NORTH GA BUT THATS IT. THE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF BUILDING SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD MONDAY AND THE
MOISTURE REMAINS OF ERIKA REMAINING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MONDAY BUT IT
WILL BE A LOT LESS THAN TODAY. GOING WITH LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GA MONDAY. INSTABILITIES EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY
WEAK FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR SO ONLY GOING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDER MONDAY AS WELL. THIS FITS WELL WITH SPC AS THEY CURRENTLY
HAVE US IN JUST A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM RISK FOR MONDAY. TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE 60S AND 70S FOR LOWS...AND MAINLY IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS
WITH SOME 70S IN THE NORTH GA MOUNTAINS.

01

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
FORECAST. NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

THE UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL COME IN TWO FORMS FOR THE EXTENDED...AN
UPPER LOW THAT PRETTY MUCH STAYS PARKED ACROSS THE GULF
STATES/NORTHERN GOMEX AND THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA.

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF SHIFTING THE DEEPEST TROPICAL
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH ERIKAS REMNANTS EASTWARD. SO...THE HIGHEST
QPF SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. AS FAR AS THE UPPER
LOW GOES...THE FEATURE COULD HELP KEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIP MORE
SCT/ISOLD IN THE WEST. EITHER FEATURE WILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

ANOTHER BY-PRODUCT OF THE UPPER LOW WILL BE THAT TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE
TO GET OUT OF THE 80S FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

NLISTEMAA

&&
.AVIATION...

18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
CLOUD CONDITIONS ARE RANGING FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE AREA BUT
THE MOST SITES ARE IN THE MVFR RANGE. SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS THEN LIFT TO VFR AROUND 00Z. LOWER
IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE BACK IN TONIGHT. THE PRECIP SHOULD
END AROUND 090Z ALSO. OTHER THAN IN AND AROUND STRONG CONVECTION
NOT EXPECTING ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VSBYS. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE EAST
AND EXPECTED TOP STAY THERE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL
BE IN THE 10-14KT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON SUBSIDING TO 10KT OR LESS
AFTER 00Z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE ON ALL ELEMENTS

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  84  69  88 /  70  30  20  30
ATLANTA         69  85  70  88 /  50  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     62  81  63  83 /  50  30  20  30
CARTERSVILLE    67  85  67  88 /  50  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        70  89  71  90 /  50  20  20  20
GAINESVILLE     67  82  69  86 /  70  30  20  30
MACON           70  87  70  89 /  50  30  20  20
ROME            67  85  67  89 /  50  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  67  85  68  88 /  50  30  20  20
VIDALIA         72  86  73  89 /  70  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....NLISTEMAA
AVIATION...01

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
431 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311200-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
431 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A TROPICAL LIKE AIRMASS IN PLACE WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FROM TRAINING STORMS THAT
COULD CAUSE MINOR LOCALIZED FLOODING ALONG THE TYPICAL LOW LYING
FLOOD PRONE AREAS... ESPECIALLY THOSE AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED... A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG... MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WHERE SOME MID LEVEL DRY AIR
COULD ENHANCE STORM DOWNDRAFT... AND PRODUCE BRIEF WIND GUSTS UP TO
45 MPH. THIS THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY 9 PM THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO
GEORGIA FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CREATE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
405 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

GAZ039-051-062-074>076-085-302100-
JOHNSON GA-TALIAFERRO GA-GLASCOCK GA-WASHINGTON GA-JEFFERSON GA-
WILKES GA-WARREN GA-
405 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JOHNSON...TALIAFERRO...
GLASCOCK...EASTERN WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON...SOUTHEASTERN WILKES AND
WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDED FROM NORTHEAST OF SHARON TO NORTH OF GIBSON TO NEAR
HARRISON...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR
           POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER
           COVERS THE ROAD REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
WARRENTON...GIBSON...CRAWFORDVILLE...DAVISBORO...HARRISON...
STAPLETON...BARTOW...AVERA...NORWOOD...MITCHELL...SHARON...CAMAK...
RIDDLEVILLE...EDGE HILL...EDGEHILL...STAPLETONS CROSSROADS...
ALEXANDER STEPHENS PARK...REESE...BASTONVILLE AND SANDY CROSS.

LAT...LON 3291 8242 3282 8246 3277 8275 3325 8275
      3339 8283 3343 8282 3344 8286 3357 8293
      3377 8257 3364 8248 3366 8251 3364 8256
      3365 8258 3363 8258 3363 8262 3360 8265
      3346 8259 3341 8255 3335 8255 3332 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 249DEG 13KT 3362 8272 3332 8263 3279 8266

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

GAZ062-074>076-085-302145-
JOHNSON GA-GLASCOCK GA-WASHINGTON GA-JEFFERSON GA-WARREN GA-
503 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON...EASTERN
GLASCOCK...SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...JEFFERSON AND SOUTHEASTERN
WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 502 PM EDT...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN
EXTENDED FROM NORTH OF STAPLETON TO NEAR WRIGHTSVILLE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

  HAZARD...HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
           IS LIKELY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR
           POSSIBLE LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER
           COVERS THE ROAD REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DO NOT DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
LOUISVILLE...WRENS...WADLEY...DAVISBORO...STAPLETON...BARTOW...
STELLAVILLE...STAPLETONS CROSSROADS...MOXLEY...MATTHEWS...NEW HOME
AND PRINGLE.

LAT...LON 3271 8247 3265 8272 3333 8246 3334 8245
      3333 8243 3333 8242 3331 8240 3331 8234
      3330 8231 3327 8229 3327 8226 3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 239DEG 13KT 3330 8243 3270 8267