Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
318 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POISED TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE CWFA.
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED DURING PEAK
HEATING...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG...PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES. PWATS HAVE COME DOWN A BIT...BUT ARE STILL AROUND
1.75 INCHES...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIKELY.

NOT CONFIDENT ON EXACTLY HOW FAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH
SOUTH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL FLOW WILL PRETTY MUCH REMAIN
ZONAL...BUT A DECENT SHORTWAVE PROGGED TO MOVE EAST IN THE FLOW
TONIGHT MIGHT HELP PUSH THE BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD.

STILL THINK THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEAR THE SOUTH PART OF THE CWFA
TOMORROW. SO...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ORIENTED ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE.

SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE NORTHERN GA BY TOMORROW
EVENING. WILL GO AHEAD AND KEEP POPS IN FOR CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE
PERIOD...BUT THE NORTH SHOULD BE DRY OVERNIGHT.

WHERE RAIN OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FOG.

NLISTEMAA

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ALTHOUGH HAVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST...LITTLE IN
TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED OVER THE
GULF AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM AND WE CONTINUE WITH
SUMMERTIME CONVECTION. A SHORTWAVE TRACKS INTO THE AREA MID WEEKEND
BUT IT DOESNT SEEM TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE ON POPS. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL PROGGED FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THE ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER IN PUSHING IT THROUGH. MAIN TWEAK TO THE POPS WAS TO CUT BACK
ON POPS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
IS BELOW.

11

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING TO S GA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH SATURDAY.
AN UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE GULF
COAST STATES INCLUDING S GA. SMALL PRECIP CHANCES MAINLY DURING
THE EVENING HOURS FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE BEST PRECIP CHANCES OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA ON SATURDAY. SATURDAY POPS COULD BE LOW DUE
TO A PASSING SHORT WAVE BUT INSTABILITY IS ON THE LOW SIDE.

GFS IS STRONGER WITH AN UPPER SHORT WAVE ON SUNDAY THEN THE
EUROPEAN. BEST POPS MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AND MAY
NEEDED TO BE INCREASED ACROSS THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO N GA ON MONDAY AND TO CENTRAL GA ON TUESDAY
AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY. 30 PERCENT POPS ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY DECREASING ACROSS N GA FOR TUESDAY AND THEN CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MOST OF CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF N GA ON WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND
EUROPEAN SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFER WITH THE 850-500MB RH FIELD TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL GREATLY AFFECT THE FORECAST WITH THE GFS MUCH
WETTER THAN THE EUROPEAN...AS AN EASTERN UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR THE MOST
PART.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE
METRO TERMINAL SITES ACROSS CENTRAL GA. INSTABILITY...THUS
SHOWERS...SHOULD DECREASE CLOSE TO SUNSET. IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
AGAIN OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL. A
WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          71  89  71  89 /  30  30  20  20
ATLANTA         72  88  72  88 /  30  30  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     64  82  64  82 /  30  30  20  20
CARTERSVILLE    68  87  67  88 /  30  30  20  20
COLUMBUS        74  90  74  92 /  40  30  30  30
GAINESVILLE     70  86  70  86 /  30  30  20  20
MACON           73  92  73  92 /  30  30  30  30
ROME            69  87  67  88 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  71  89  70  90 /  30  30  20  20
VIDALIA         74  93  75  92 /  30  30  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...NLISTEMAA
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...NLISTEMAA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1043 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-211445-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1043 AM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME
OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME STRONG.

THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD CAUSE
BRIEF FLOODING ALONG LOW LYING FLOOD PRONE AREAS. IN
ADDITION....STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING THE MOST LIKELY HAZARDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY
GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
444 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

GAZ083-084-096-097-202130-
TWIGGS GA-BLECKLEY GA-WILKINSON GA-LAURENS GA-
444 PM EDT THU AUG 20 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN TWIGGS...
NORTHEASTERN BLECKLEY...SOUTHERN WILKINSON AND WESTERN LAURENS
COUNTIES UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

AT 444 PM EDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR DANVILLE...OR 7 MILES
SOUTH OF JEFFERSONVILLE...MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE LOSS OF
           CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS THE
           ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DUDLEY...DANVILLE...MONTROSE...ALLENTOWN AND CARY.

LAT...LON 3260 8335 3265 8322 3253 8306 3245 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 010DEG 6KT 3258 8330