Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

July 31, 2015Schley County, Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this special weather statement at Jul 31, 2015, 6:33 PM EDT for Schley County, Georgia. It was in force for 27 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 31, 2015, 6:33 PM EDT (22:33 UTC)
Expired: Jul 31, 2015, 7:00 PM EDT
In force: 27 min
Issued by: NWS Atlanta, GA

County Schley County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 103 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:35 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 10.6 hours before the alert went out and 133 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 163 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -190 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1196 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 9 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -3 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Jul 31, 3:45 PM EDT, 2 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 31, 3:45 PM EDT, 2 hours 48 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
345 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
LARGELY A PERSISTENCE FORECAST ON TAP AS LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
REGIME IS EXPECTED. SFC HIGH REMAINS NW OF THE AREA DESPITE SOME
WEAK INVERTED RIDGING EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS IMPINGING MORE EAST
FLOW INTO THE NE CWA. GREATEST INSTABILITY GRADIENT REMAINS ACROSS
CENTRAL GA ALONG WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NEAR
COLUMBUS TO MACON. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE MORE ENHANCED
MOISTURE GRADIENT SHOULD HAVE LITTLE CHANGE IN LOCATION /PERHAPS A
BIT FARTHER SOUTH/ FOR SATURDAY. HAVE INCLUDED CHANCE POPS AGAIN FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING. BUFR SOUNDINGS IN
THE SOUTHEAST /MORESO THE NAM/ WITH DECENT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AND AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS HAVE INDICATED THUS
FAR...COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE CANNOT BE RULED OUT. COULD BE
DEALING WITH SOME PATCHY MORNING FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE PRECIP
THIS EVENING SO WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR FUTURE UPDATES.

TEMPS SHOULD STAY NEAR CLIMO NORMS THRU THE PERIOD. HAVE GONE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ON DEWPOINTS AS WHAT HAS TRENDED RECENTLY BEHIND
THE FRONT.

BAKER

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
OVERALL LONG TERM TRENDS LOOK TO BE ON TRACK SO HAVE AVOIDED
MAKING ANY WHOLESCALE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. HAVE MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS AND DEW POINTS FOR BETTER NEIGHBOR
CONSISTENCY AND TO USE THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DATA. THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

31

/ISSUED 341 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015/
MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WEAK COLD FRONT STALLED
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT... SAGGING FURTHER
SOUTH AND INTO SOUTH GEORGIA ON SUNDAY...THEN INTO NORTH FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LESSON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK AS A DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES
OVER THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY SURFACE TO
MID LEVEL FLOW AND SUBTLE UPPER DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK DEEP
LAYER WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO SUGGEST ANY AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS.

BEHIND THE FRONT... A DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK FOR MOST AREAS FOR SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN AS GULF MOISTURE BEGINS TO CREEP NORTHWARD... NEAR
CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES ARE LIKELY TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID WEEK.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH PERIOD ACROSS AREA WITH
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL GREATEST FOR SOUTHERN SITES
ALONG WITH POSSIBLE REDUCED VSBYS. DEPENDING ON WHERE PRECIP
OCCURS TODAY...MAY NEED TO INCLUDE MVFR VSBYS FOR EARLY MORNING
TOMORROW. CIGS IN 4-6 KFT RANGE WITH CU FIELD THEN MOSTLY CLEAR
OVERNIGHT AND SIMILAR TREND AGAIN FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON. PRECIP
CHANCES AGAIN STAYING IN SOUTHERN TIER FOR SATURDAY. WINDS HAVE
BEEN TRICKY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING AS KATL AND NEARBY SITES
MAY HAVE SOME WAVERING BETWEEN EAST AND NNW BUT SHOULD MAINLY
STAY EAST OF NORTH AND CLOSE TO NORTH OVERNIGHT BEFORE NE AGAIN
FOR SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO LOW ON AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY.
MEDIUM ON PRECIP CHANCE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR KATL.
HIGH ON ALL ELSE.

BAKER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          70  94  69  94 /  10  10  10  10
ATLANTA         72  93  72  93 /  10  10  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     59  88  60  88 /  10   5  10  10
CARTERSVILLE    64  93  64  94 /   5   5  10  10
COLUMBUS        75  94  73  95 /  30  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     69  92  69  92 /  10   5  10  10
MACON           73  92  71  95 /  30  40  20  20
ROME            62  94  63  93 /   0   5   5  10
PEACHTREE CITY  68  92  67  93 /  20  10  10  10
VIDALIA         74  91  73  93 /  40  50  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...BAKER
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...BAKER

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 31, 3:52 PM EDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
352 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-012000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
352 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
THE MAIN STORM THREATS ARE BRIEF WIND GUSTS... FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GREATEST THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LA GRANGE TO WASHINGTON LINE THROUGH
10 PM. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG... SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL HELP
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE OVER THE WEEKEND. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED. THE WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH OF THE
AREA BY MONDAY... WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW
LESSONING RAIN CHANCES FOR ALL AREAS ON MONDAY... AND POSSIBLY ON
TUESDAY. A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS BACK TO THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

BEHIND THE FRONT... THE DRIER AIR MASS WILL HELP HOLD HEAT INDICES
BELOW THE 100 DEGREE MARK ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA TODAY... AND ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OVER THE WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY THROUGH
THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR CRITICALLY HIGH HEAT INDICES
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO MUCH OF THE AREA BY MID NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 31, 5:03 PM EDT, 1 hour 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
503 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MARION                  32.66N  83.44W
07/31/2015                   TWIGGS             GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF AT LEAST 5
            TREES DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY. RADAR IMAGERY REVEALS MOST
            LIKELY IMPACTED AREAS WERE MARION AND LOCATIONS JUST
            WEST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500579

KOVACIK

Local storm report, Jul 31, 5:20 PM EDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
520 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     HAWKINSVILLE            32.28N  83.47W
07/31/2015                   PULASKI            GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER RECEIVED REPORT OF 1 TREE AND 1
            POWERLINE DOWN ON HIGHWAY 230 WEST LOCATED JUST WEST OF
            DOWNTOWN HAWKINSVILLE

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500580

KOVACIK

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 5:33 PM EDT, 1 hour before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
533 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

GAZ105>108-312200-
CRISP GA-WILCOX GA-DOOLY GA-PULASKI GA-
533 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN CRISP...NORTHWESTERN
WILCOX...DOOLY AND SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM EDT...

AT 533 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF
PINEVIEW TO NEAR LILLY...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...40 TO 50 MPH WIND...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
           AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE
           LOSS OF CONTROL DUE TO HYDROPLANING. WHEN WATER COVERS
           THE ROAD...REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
CORDELE...VIENNA...ROCHELLE...BYROMVILLE...PINEVIEW...PINEHURST...
PITTS...LILLY...TREMONT...GEORGIA VETERANS MEMORIAL ST PK...CEDAR
CREEK...RICHWOOD...POPE CITY...WALLACE...DRAYTON...TIPPETTVILLE...
PLEASANT VIEW...SEVILLE...FINLEYSON AND EAST CRISP.

LAT...LON 3193 8392 3197 8393 3199 8395 3202 8395
      3202 8396 3203 8396 3205 8397 3205 8398
      3208 8398 3221 8390 3222 8341 3193 8334
TIME...MOT...LOC 2133Z 015DEG 8KT 3217 8342 3216 8384

Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:14 PM EDT, 19 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:23 PM EDT, 10 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Jul 31, 6:33 PM EDT, 0 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 30, 8:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Baldwin, Jones	43 min
Jul 31, 12:40 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Montgomery	35 min
Jul 31, 1:31 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Dodge	29 min
Jul 31, 1:44 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Marion	31 min
Jul 31, 2:13 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Treutlen	32 min
Jul 31, 2:25 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Marion	35 min
Jul 31, 2:32 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Stewart	13 min
Jul 31, 2:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Johnson, Laurens	48 min
Jul 31, 2:58 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Laurens	32 min
Jul 31, 3:16 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Schley	29 min
Jul 31, 3:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Laurens	27 min
Jul 31, 3:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bleckley, Laurens, Twiggs, Wilkinson	38 min
Jul 31, 3:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Harris	49 min
Jul 31, 4:05 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Dodge	25 min
Jul 31, 4:09 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Peach	36 min
Jul 31, 4:28 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bibb, Houston, Twiggs	32 min
Jul 31, 4:53 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Upson	37 min
Jul 31, 4:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bleckley, Dooly, Houston, Pulaski	34 min
Jul 31, 5:33 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Dooly, Wilcox	27 min
Jul 31, 5:45 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Crisp, Dooly, Wilcox	45 min
Jul 31, 6:14 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Crisp	31 min
Jul 31, 6:23 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Crisp	37 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.