Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015

.UPDATE...
MAINLY UPDATED THE ZONES EARLIER FOR POPS AND TO EXPIRE THE HEAT
ADVISORY.

HRRR KEEPS THE CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
GOING UNTIL JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE AS THE
STORMS CONTINUE TO THRIVE ON SURFACE INSTABILITY. HAVE ORIENTED
POPS ACCORDING TO THE TRENDS ON RADAR AND THE HRRR.

HAVE ALSO MADE HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 PM EDT TUE JUL 21 2015/

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS ACROSS THE AREA INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH
CONTINUES FROM THE EASTERN CAROLINAS THROUGH SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT DAY HAS BEEN THE FOCUS FOR EARLY SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AREA WAS QUITE PRONOUNCED FOR MUCH
OF THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND INITIALIZED GRIDS WITH LIKELY POPS.
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SECONDARY STRONG INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
WEST CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE ATLANTA METRO WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE
IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. THIS HAS BEEN THE IMPETUS FOR ADDITIONAL
STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS FOR THE METRO WITH STORMS PROGRESSING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND LIKELY TO CONTINUE AFFECTING AFTERNOON COMMUTE.
MICROBURST COMPOSITE WAS ALSO MAXIMIZED IN THIS AREA AS A RESULT
OF THE COMBINATION OF AFOREMENTIONED CAPE AND CONTINUED IMPRESSIVE
DOWNDRAFT CAPE OF ALMOST 1400 J/KG.

LOOKS LIKE PRETTY MUCH STATUS QUO FOR WED AS SURFACE TROUGH DOES
MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH BUT LARGELY REMAINS OVER CENTRAL GA AND A
PLAYER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. ELSEWHERE...TOUGH TO TIME AND
PLACE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVE ELEMENTS IN MEAN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT
BUT THERE LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST SOME FAVORABLE ENERGY COMING IN
DURING THE AFTERNOON.; ALONG WITH CONTINUED HIGH CAPE
VALUES...SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEMS REALIZING AT LEAST CLIMO POPS
WITH SOME AREAS CLOSE TO LIKELY FOR WED AFTERNOON.

DEESE

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GFS AND THE EUROPEAN MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT STARTING THE LONG
TERM WITH WNW UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
THE N TO CENTRAL GA AREA. THE FRONT SEEMS TO MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE LONG TERM AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NNW FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER FLOW COULD BE FAIRLY ACTIVE WITH SHORT
WAVE ACTIVITY UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY BY THE WEEKEND.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN START TO DIFFER BY SUNDAY WITH THE GFS NOSING IN
MORE OF AN UPPER RIDGE FOR N GA AND THE EUROPEAN MORE OF AN EASTERN
SEABOARD TROUGH AND THIS CONTINUES THROUGH MONDAY.
GENERALLY EXPECT MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THIS PATTERN WILL HELP LOWER DAYTIME
HIGHS AND ASSOCIATED HEAT INDEX VALUES TOWARD WEEKS END.

FORECAST TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING NEAR TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY GOING ACROSS THE AIRFIELD. BEHIND THE
OUTFLOW...PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE MINIMAL. WINDS WILL BE A MORE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION BEHIND THE OUTFLOW...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SWITCH BACK TO THE WEST BY EARLY MORNING. DIURNAL CU AND STORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  95  72  93 /  40  40  40  50
ATLANTA         76  92  72  90 /  50  40  40  50
BLAIRSVILLE     67  87  66  85 /  30  40  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    74  92  73  89 /  40  40  40  50
COLUMBUS        77  95  74  93 /  40  40  30  50
GAINESVILLE     73  92  72  90 /  40  40  40  50
MACON           77  98  74  95 /  30  50  50  50
ROME            73  90  72  88 /  40  40  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  75  93  74  91 /  40  40  40  50
VIDALIA         78  98  76  95 /  30  40  50  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

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