Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
140 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

.UPDATE...
/ISSUED AT 1220 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/
MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY STORING UP FOR THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THAT WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
LATEST TRENDS AND FORECAST MODELS ARE SUGGESTING POSSIBLY TWO ROUNDS
OF STORMS EFFECTING THE AREA... ONE ONGOING AS STORMS LEFT OVER FROM
LAST NIGHTS STORM COMPLEX NOW PUSHING INTO NE GA. THESE STORMS
SHOULD PUSH ACROSS MUCH OF FAR NE AND EAST CENTRAL GA THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON OR SO BEFORE PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. RADAR ALSO SHOWS SCATTERED STORMS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL GA JUST FROM AFTERNOON HEATING. THESE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A COLUMBUS TO MACON
LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW A SECOND ROUND OF STORMS
PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GA BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS
NORTH AND INTO CENTRAL GA THROUGH THE EVENING... AND POSSIBLY INTO
EARLY WED MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH ALL OF THESE STORMS CLOSELY
WITH SUCH STRONG INSTABILITIES ACROSS THE AREA. THE MAIN STORM
THREATS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
FREQUENT LIGHTING...BUT LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED BRIEF FLOODING
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ALL INTEREST ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA SHOULD
MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST CLOSELY TODAY AND TONIGHT. /39

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS EASTERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KY WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH OFF TO THE SE INTO THE CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE HI-
RES MODELS ARE PROGGING THIS COMPLEX TO WEAKEN AS IS DROPS
SOUTH...BUT A FEW OF THE STORMS COULD BRUSH FAR NORTHEAST GA DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.

THE MAIN SHOW IS STILL PROGGED FOR THE EARLY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UNTIL THEN...CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY
UNORGANIZED...BUT POSSIBLY FOCUSING ALONG A LEE TROUGH SITUATED
ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. POPS ACROSS
NORTHERN GA REMAIN LOW FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE SCT POPS ARE
NECESSARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

A SECOND MCS IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH IN THE FLOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BEGIN IMPACTING NORTHERN GA RIGHT BEFORE 00Z. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH AN MCS DEVELOPING/IMPACTING
THE CWFA...BUT HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE TIMING OF THE
FEATURE. EVEN THE HI-RES MODELS TEND TO HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING
THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES. SINCE THE HRRR DOESN'T GO FAR
ENOUGH...HAVE RELIED ON THE WRF FOR GENERAL TIMING. ALSO...HAVE
PLACED LIKELY POPS WHERE THE MCS IS MOST LIKELY GOING TO
IMPACT...BUT THEY MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE FEATURE DEVELOPS
AND BEGINS TO PROPAGATE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL INCREASE AS THE EVE/OVERNIGHT
MCS AFFECTS THE AREA. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRETTY STEEP FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR...PLUS SOME PRETTY DECENT SHEAR WILL ACCOMPANY THE
MCS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL CERTAINLY BE THE
PRIMARY MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE DECENT SHEAR VALUES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD PROVIDE THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE AND A NICE INVERTED V
IN THE SOUNDINGS...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE
SHOWING SOME STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SO WOULDN'T COMPLETELY
RULE OUT HAIL.

HAVE GONE AHEAD AND ISSUED ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWFA. HEAT INDICES AROUND 105 DEGREES WILL BE
LIKELY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY WITHIN THE SAME
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING INTO/OVER THE
AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH BEGINNING TO MOVE
OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE SHIFTING TO CENTRAL GA
WHERE SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS MAY LINGER DURING THE EVENING...
POSSIBLY THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME OVER THE AREA ON
THURSDAY WITH THE CENTER REMAINING TO THE WEST. THIS PATTERN CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH JUST SOME WEAKENING OF THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL ALSO WEAKEN/DIMINISH THE NW FLOW ALOFT AND SHORT WAVE
POTENTIAL OVER THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR A VERY DIURNAL NATURE TO ANY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

TEMPERATURES FOR THE MOST PART WILL BE A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

BDL

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHING ACROSS
THE ATLANTA TAF SITES BETWEEN 00Z-05Z WED... BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN
AFTERNOON STORM DEVELOPING AROUND THE AIRPORTS PRIOR TO THAT TIME.
WILL CONTINUE TO SHOW TEMPO 20-24Z FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION... AND
PREVAILING -TSRA 00-03Z WED TO HANDLE THE EXPECTED STORM COMPLEX
LATER THIS EVENING. THE CONVECTIVE THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BY
05-06Z WED... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION.
WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE WEST SIDE BUT FREQUENT GUSTS TO AROUND 15-
20KTS REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MED CONFIDENCE ON CONVECTION...HIGH CONFIDENCE REMAINING
ELEMENTS.

/39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          95  74  95  72 /  50  60  30  10
ATLANTA         93  76  91  74 /  50  60  40  20
BLAIRSVILLE     87  66  85  64 /  60  60  30  10
CARTERSVILLE    92  72  90  70 /  50  60  30  10
COLUMBUS        95  76  94  75 /  40  40  40  50
GAINESVILLE     91  73  90  72 /  60  60  30  10
MACON           96  75  94  74 /  40  50  40  50
ROME            94  73  92  71 /  50  60  30  10
PEACHTREE CITY  93  74  91  72 /  40  60  40  40
VIDALIA         95  76  95  75 /  40  50  40  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...
GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...
LAURENS...MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...
TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...
WILCOX...WILKINSON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
440 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
440 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTH
AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITHIN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME STORMS WILL BECOME
SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT OVER NORTH GEORGIA. DUE TO THE NATURE
OF THE DISTURBANCES ALOFT...2 ROUNDS OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MOST SO FOR NORTH GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY FOR CENTRAL AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH GEORGIA WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
BEING THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY
CENTRAL GEORGIA ON THURSDAY AND ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME...BUT SPOTTERS NEED
TO REMAIN ALERT FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT
REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

GAZ086-098-112-113-141830-
MONTGOMERY GA-TOOMBS GA-TREUTLEN GA-EMANUEL GA-
205 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MONTGOMERY...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN
AND EMANUEL COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 204 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER OAK PARK...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF LYONS...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
LYONS...VIDALIA...OAK PARK...PONDEROSA...OHOOPEE AND NORMANTOWN.

LAT...LON 3214 8220 3208 8221 3231 8249 3246 8238
      3241 8221 3235 8225 3235 8224 3228 8223
      3224 8221 3223 8221 3218 8219 3216 8218
TIME...MOT...LOC 1804Z 306DEG 16KT 3235 8237

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
225 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0150 PM     HAIL             6 N DAHLONEGA           34.62N  83.98W
07/14/2015  E1.00 INCH       LUMPKIN            GA   911 CALL CENTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500511

SNELSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

GAZ076-085-086-096>098-109>113-141930-
JOHNSON GA-WHEELER GA-BLECKLEY GA-DODGE GA-MONTGOMERY GA-LAURENS GA-
TOOMBS GA-TREUTLEN GA-TELFAIR GA-EMANUEL GA-JEFFERSON GA-
231 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR JOHNSON...WHEELER...BLECKLEY...
DODGE...MONTGOMERY...LAURENS...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TELFAIR...EMANUEL
AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

AT 230 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
DUBLIN TO SWAINSBORO...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
DUBLIN...SWAINSBORO...MCRAE...EASTMAN...LYONS...SOPERTON...ALAMO...
MOUNT VERNON...VIDALIA...HELENA...EAST DUBLIN...WADLEY...TWIN CITY...
CHESTER...LUMBER CITY...GLENWOOD...MILAN...ADRIAN...UVALDA AND
DEXTER.

LAT...LON 3181 8314 3249 8320 3289 8230 3283 8231
      3280 8221 3281 8215 3266 8208 3260 8200
      3254 8203 3256 8208 3252 8215 3235 8225
      3217 8218 3191 8223 3197 8248 3195 8249
      3196 8255 3192 8268 3178 8287 3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 1830Z 309DEG 17KT 3245 8272

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

GAZ038-039-141915-
OGLETHORPE GA-WILKES GA-
233 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR OGLETHORPE AND WILKES COUNTIES
UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 232 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NANCY HART STATE PARK...OR NEAR ELBERTON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

  HAZARD...UP TO 40 MPH WIND...PEA SIZED HAIL AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
           GROUND LIGHTNING.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
WASHINGTON...TIGNALL...NANCY HART STATE PARK...NEWTOWN...VESTA...
FLORAL HILL...MALLORYSVILLE...JACKSONS CROSSROADS...NORMAN...DELHI
AND DANBURG.

LAT...LON 3383 8260 3380 8258 3366 8276 3399 8296
      3402 8294 3400 8288 3398 8286 3398 8285
      3399 8284 3399 8266 3398 8265 3386 8261
      3387 8258 3387 8257
TIME...MOT...LOC 1832Z 308DEG 17KT 3402 8283