Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
154 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 957 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

UPDATE...
IT HAS BEEN A QUIETER FIRST HALF OF THE DAY AS COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY...BUT THIS WILL CHANGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE RIDES DOWN THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND
SPARKS MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE A GOOD BIT OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL GIVE THE SKY A HAZY LOOK THIS
MORNING. FORECAST CONTINUES ON TRACK.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 738 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ACTIVE...DYNAMIC PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM FOR NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA AS A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES IMPACT THE AREA AS A
RESULT OF BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US. AS THESE
DISTURBANCES INTERACT WITH THE MOIST...UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE
AREA...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY LATE
MORNING...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS BETWEEN
2 AND 10 PM AND NORTH/WEST OF THE I-85 CORRIDOR /OR NORTH OF A LINE
FROM LAGRANGE TO GAINESVILLE/ WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL COMBINE
WITH THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE CAPES IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE...AND WITH MODERATELY
STEEP LAPSE RATES...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...AND
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. SPC DOES HAVE PORTIONS OF NORTH
AND WESTERN GEORGIA OUTLOOKED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT...THE GREATEST RISK
CONTINUES TO BE STRONG...DAMAGING WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. HAIL
UP TO 1.00 INCH IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AMPLE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
STATE WITH ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES APPROACHING
THE 90TH PERCENTILE. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCERS...AND FLASH FLOODING OF LOCALIZED AREAS...PARTICULARLY LOW-
LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS...IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

HAVE OPTED TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THURSDAY AS ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IMPACTS
THE STATE AND FOCUSES ON THE NORTHERN ZONES. THERE WAS SOME
CONSIDERATION OF A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT
AS THIS NEXT SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DROP HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
THE SAME GENERAL AREA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MODEL QPF CONTINUES TO BE
LOW ENOUGH THAT HAVE TABLED IT FOR NOW. SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS WILL NEED
TO MONITOR NEW QPF TO DETERMINE IF A WATCH MAY BE NECESSARY. SPC
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT NORTH GEORGIA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER AGAIN THURSDAY...AND ONCE AGAIN DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
MAIN HAZARD.

THE SILVER LINING TO THE ACTIVE NORTHWEST FLOW IS THE TEMPERATURES.
HIGHS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM CONTINUE TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL. HAVE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF GUIDANCE.

31

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE SHOWING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN ACTIVE
PATTERN PERSISTING AS AN UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH REMAINS ANCHORED
OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY. ALTHOUGH SUBTLE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOTED IN STRENGTH AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES THAT TRAVERSE
THROUGH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH... THE MODELS SHOW A VERY ACTIVE
PATTERN THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND... WARRANTING A GOOD CHANCE
TO LIKELY POPS OVER THE AREA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND... WITH A LOW CHANCE OVERNIGHT.

MODERATE CAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND 20-25KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ESPECIALLY FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHEN
THE AREA REMAINS ON THE ACTIVE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

THE LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING AND
POSSIBLY SHEARING OFF TO THE EAST BY MONDAY. HOWEVER... THE GFS
SHOWS A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVELS LINGERING OVER THE STATE ON
TUESDAY WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. WILL REMAIN
OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW A LOW CHANCE OF POPS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
FOR NOW.

39

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED. THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS POTENTIALLY
PUSHING IN AHEAD OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW THROUGH THE EVENING. TEMPO
GROUP THIS EVENING ACCOUNTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY. WINDS REMAIN FROM
WESTERLY DIRECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. LOW CLOUDS ARE AGAIN
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON WINDS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE OTHER ELEMENTS.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          89  70  88  71 /  50  50  50  40
ATLANTA         86  70  84  72 /  50  50  60  40
BLAIRSVILLE     80  66  79  66 /  60  60  70  60
CARTERSVILLE    86  69  84  71 /  60  60  60  60
COLUMBUS        89  72  89  73 /  50  50  60  40
GAINESVILLE     84  69  83  70 /  60  60  60  50
MACON           90  70  89  72 /  40  40  50  30
ROME            85  70  85  71 /  60  60  70  60
PEACHTREE CITY  87  69  85  71 /  50  50  60  40
VIDALIA         92  73  91  73 /  30  30  50  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES: BARTOW...CATOOSA...CHATTOOGA...CHEROKEE...
DADE...DAWSON...FANNIN...FLOYD...GILMER...GORDON...LUMPKIN...
MURRAY...PICKENS...TOWNS...UNION...WALKER...WHITE...WHITFIELD.

&&

SHORT TERM...RW
AVIATION...RW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-021215-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1055 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A MOIST
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE... ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LA GRANGE TO GAINESVILLE LINE. HOWEVER...
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ANYWHERE TODAY.

DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
HOWEVER... AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL REPORT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. IN
ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD CAUSE FLOODING IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE BEST
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THURSDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
544 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

GAZ067>071-012215-
UPSON GA-PIKE GA-LAMAR GA-MONROE GA-MERIWETHER GA-
544 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR UPSON...PIKE...LAMAR...MONROE AND
MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 544 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM MILNER
TO NEAR MEANSVILLE TO NEAR WOODBURY...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES SHOULD
           NOT BE USED UNLESS IN AN EMERGENCY. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN
           LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY.
           MOTORISTS SHOULD REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
THOMASTON...BARNESVILLE...FORSYTH...MILNER...YATESVILLE...
MEANSVILLE...ALDORA...THE ROCK...SUNSET VILLAGE...COLLIER...
REDBONE...CREST...ATWATER...BRENT...SUNNYSIDE...JOHNSTONVILLE...
HANNAHS MILL...GOGGINS...PIEDMONT AND LIBERTY HILL.

LAT...LON 3300 8435 3317 8422 3318 8385 3295 8399
      3287 8419 3291 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 2144Z 278DEG 30KT 3314 8419 3300 8430 3293 8452

DJN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
555 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

GAZ056>058-070-071-012230-
HENRY GA-SPALDING GA-BUTTS GA-LAMAR GA-MONROE GA-
555 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HENRY...SPALDING...BUTTS...LAMAR
AND MONROE COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 555 PM EDT...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR
HAMPTON TO NEAR EAST GRIFFIN TO ORCHARD HILL...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...WINDS UP TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE OUTDOORS SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IMMEDIATELY. EXPECT
           MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOWING AROUND OF
           LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS. LOCALIZED FLOODING IN LOW
           LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS ALSO LIKELY. MOTORISTS
           SHOULD REMEMBER TO TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...MCDONOUGH...JACKSON...HAMPTON...LOCUST GROVE...FLOVILLA...
JENKINSBURG...ORCHARD HILL...EAST GRIFFIN...LUELLA...BLOUNT...CHAPPEL
MILL...MCKIBBEN...WORTHVILLE...WALKER MILL...TOWALAGA...STARK...
BLACKSVILLE...INDIAN SPRINGS STATE PARK AND OLA.

LAT...LON 3351 8404 3349 8403 3350 8402 3348 8395
      3339 8389 3338 8386 3334 8386 3333 8384
      3330 8383 3327 8383 3326 8382 3318 8386
      3316 8425 3329 8423 3342 8431
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 270DEG 22KT 3342 8428 3330 8422 3319 8424

DJN