Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
323 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AREA OBS AND REGIONAL RADARS ARE SHOWING THE MUCH ADVERTISED COLD
FRONT PUSHING INTO NW AL AND CENTRAL TN. TIMING TOOL INDICATES THE
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO FAR NW GA BETWEEN 5-6 PM... THEN ATLANTA AREA
BETWEEN 7-9 PM... THEN SAGGING INTO THE COLUMBUS AND MACON AREAS
BETWEEN 5-7 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

MORNING CLOUDINESS HAVE HELPED HOLD INSTABILITIES DOWN... HOWEVER...
LARGE CLOUD BREAKS ARE OCCURRING AND ALLOWING SOME SPOTS TO WARM
INTO THE 90S THIS AFTERNOON. SPC CONTINUES TO SHOW MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GA IN A SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY... BUT BEGINNING TO THINK THE
AREA OF GREATEST CONCERN FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE I-20 CORRIDOR WEST OF ATLANTA... AND THE I-85
CORRIDOR EAST OF ATLANTA WHERE CAPE VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB
INTO THE 3000-3500 J/KG RANGE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING. STILL LOOKS
LIKE MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 20-30 KTS... COUPLED WITH A
VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH 1.75-2.00 PWS... SHOULD HELP HOLD MOST
STORMS BELOW SEVERE LIMITS... WITH THE TYPICAL GARDEN VARIETY STORM
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN THE 35-45 MPH RANGE... FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. HOWEVER... STILL CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SEVERE STORM WITH WIND GUSTS OF 60-70 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREAT. THE
HAIL THREAT STILL LOOKS MINIMAL WITH THE FREEZING LEVEL ABOVE 14KFT.
TRAINING OF STORMS ACROSS THE SAME AREA COULD QUICKLY CAUSE RISES ON
AREA CREEKS AND PONDING OF WATER ACROSS LOW LYING... FLOOD PRONE
AREAS. SO BE ALERT FOR BRIEF MINOR FLOODING.

THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE EVENING AND GREATLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ISOLATED POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER A FEW HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT.

CLEARING SKIES ARE ON TAP FOR SUNDAY... EXCEPT MAY HOLD ONTO A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
REACHES OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON... AS THERE IS
STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL BE ABLE
TO PUSH ON SUNDAY DURING DAYTIME HEATING... BUT THINK ALL AREAS
WILL BE POP FREE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

OTHERWISE... TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS AND CONTINUED TO
SHOW HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT FOR AREAS FAR SOUTH. LOOK FORWARD TO THE COOLER TEMPS
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. ENJOY.

39

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
INITIAL EXTENDED PERIODS CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER AND DRY
AIR MASS OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE SHORT TERM COLD FRONT. MORE
DYNAMIC PATTERN IN STORE TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
AS UPPER THROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA AND SEVERAL
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSE THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS ACTIVE
PATTERN KEEPS ENHANCED POPS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH
GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND SLIGHT
TO LOW END CHANCE EACH OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ECMWF AND GFS DO DIFFER
SIGNIFICANTLY BY LATE WEEK ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION...PARTICULARLY FOR THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW HAVE
GONE WITH A GENERAL BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE
MORE OF THE ECWMF SOLUTION...KEEPING THE AREA IN A LESS FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR STORMS FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

31/01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/TSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
MOVE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE EARLY TO MID EVENING HOURS
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL... EXCEPT TEMPO
MVFR/IFR WITH TSTMS. CIGS WILL LOWER BACK DOWN TO MVFR LEVELS
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... WITH MOIST GROUNDS IN PLACE. THESE
CIGS WILL CLEAR BY 12-15Z SUN AS DRIER AIR SPREADS IN BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN WESTERLY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING... THEN SHIFT NW BEHIND THE FRONT
AROUND 03-05Z SUN AT ATL... THEN AROUND 8-11Z SUN FOR CSG AND MCN.
STILL EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WILL DIMINISH THIS
EVENING. WINDS MAY SHOW A LIGHT GUSTS ON SUN BEHIND THE FRONT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON MVFR CIGS TONIGHT. HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  88  64  90 /  70   5   5   5
ATLANTA         67  85  67  88 /  70   5   5   5
BLAIRSVILLE     58  80  56  82 /  40   5   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    63  85  61  88 /  50   5   5  10
COLUMBUS        71  87  69  90 /  80  20   5  10
GAINESVILLE     65  84  64  86 /  60   5   5  10
MACON           70  89  67  90 /  80  20   5   5
ROME            64  85  61  88 /  40   5   5  20
PEACHTREE CITY  67  86  64  89 /  70   5   5   5
VIDALIA         73  89  70  92 /  80  30  20  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
501 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-280915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
501 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UP TO 1 INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL.

DUE TO THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND INTO
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. AS DAYTIME HEATING
OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON...INSTABILITIES WILL INCREASE BRINGING THE
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

THE BEST TIMES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 10 AM TODAY THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON...AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE
STATE REMAINS IN A VERY ACTIVE PATTER. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF GREATER CHANCES. STAY
TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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