Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE SHORT AND MID RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
AN UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY DEVELOPING JUST WEST OF THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION... DEEPENING AND LIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL DRAG A COLD
FRONT INTO NORTH GEORGIA BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON... THEN ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL GEORGIA SATURDAY NIGHT. A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
TRAVERSING THE DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROUGH DURING DAYTIME HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT... COUPLED WITH A MOIST AND MODERATE LOW-MID
LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW... SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AHEAD OF THE FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
EVENING.

MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG... COUPLED WITH MODERATE 25-35KT
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR... SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PUSH SOME
STORMS TO SEVERE LEVELS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO SATURDAY EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS... SOME
LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS AT THIS
TIME. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES WILL SUPPORT
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN... AND ANY TRAINING OF CELLS WOULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED FLOOD PROBLEMS. AT THIS TIME... IT APPEARS THE GREATER
STRONG/SEVERE STORM THREAT WILL BE MAINLY SOUTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO
BLAIRSVILLE LINE FROM LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS PLACED MUCH OF THIS AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY.

THE STORM THREAT WILL QUICKLY END BEHIND THE COLD FRONT... ALTHOUGH
POST FRONTAL SHOWERS/PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN MAY LINGER FOR A FEW
HOURS. ALSO EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO PERSIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA...EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

OTHERWISE... TOOK A MAV AND MET BLEND FOR TEMPS AND CONTINUED TO
SHOW HIGHER THEN GUIDANCE POPS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

39

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS MARKED WITH MORE DYNAMIC PATTERN AS UPPER TROUGH
RETURNS TO THE AREA. AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
CWA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING....WITH SOME ASSOCIATED STORMS
CARRYING INTO SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA. FOR THE MOST PART SUNDAY AND MONDAY CONTINUE TO LOOK
LIKE MORE PLEASANT DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S...AND
VERTICAL PROFILES SHOWING DRY AIR ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY WILL HOVER SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...THEN MODERATE SLIGHTLY
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS REMAINING WEST OF THE AREA...AN ACTIVE
PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK AS SEVERAL FEATURES PUSH INTO
THE REGION. NEXT BOUNDARY IMPACTS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH ENHANCED
STORM CHANCES REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEK. AMPLE MOISTURE WILL ALLOW FOR MORE EFFICIENT
PRECIPITATION PROCESSES. HAVE GENERALLY GONE GOOD CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA EACH DAY TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AND SLIGHT
CHANCE TO LOW END CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT.

01/31

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD... EXCEPT
LOWER MVFR/IFR POSSIBLE WITH EXPECTED PERIODS OF CONVECTION THIS
AFTERNOON... THEN AGAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON. HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST TAF
SITES BETWEEN 19-23Z THIS AFTERNOON... THEN DIMINISHING BY MID TO
LATE THIS EVENING. CONVECTION BECOMES MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN MAINLY SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH SPEEDS 7KTS OR LESS THROUGH TONIGHT... THEN 10-12KTS
POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF PRECIP.
HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          72  87  65  87 /  50  90  60   0
ATLANTA         72  85  65  85 /  60  90  50   0
BLAIRSVILLE     66  77  57  80 /  70  90  30   0
CARTERSVILLE    71  82  62  84 /  70  90  20   0
COLUMBUS        73  87  69  87 /  60  90  60  10
GAINESVILLE     71  83  63  84 /  50  90  50   0
MACON           73  89  68  88 /  50  90  60  10
ROME            72  83  62  85 /  80  80  20   0
PEACHTREE CITY  72  85  65  85 /  60  90  60   0
VIDALIA         74  90  72  89 /  50  70  60  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
459 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-270900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
459 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. UP TO 1 INCH HAIL IS POSSIBLE AS WELL. DUE TO
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...BRIEF FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS
POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS
MORNING BRINGING AN INCREASE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL
GEORGIA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA WILL BRING AN INCREASING RISK OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL. THE RISK
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. THEN AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. SOME OF THE STORMS TODAY AND LATE
TONIGHT COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

THE BEST TIMES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 2 PM TO 10 PM TODAY
ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. ALSO...FROM 9 AM INTO SATURDAY
MORNING ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTHEASTWARD. SOME
STORMS REACHING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH
PERIODS. DAMAGING WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS OTHER
DISTURBANCES LOOK TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY
IN THE FORECAST ON TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF GREATER CHANCES. STAY
TUNED TO FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
402 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

GAZ009-262045-
TOWNS GA-
402 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 45 MPH WINDS
IN TOWNS COUNTY UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

AT 402 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HIAWASSEE. THIS STORM WAS DRIFTING
NORTHEAST.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS TOWNS COUNTY THROUGH 445 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
HIAWASSEE...PLUM ORCHARD GAP SHELTER...MACEDONIA...MOUNTAIN SCENE...
BLUE MOUNTAIN SHELTER...TITUS AND TATE CITY.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3495 8355 3494 8360 3492 8359 3491 8363
      3490 8363 3488 8366 3483 8366 3482 8365
      3479 8371 3482 8379 3499 8377 3499 8355
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 269DEG 2KT 3487 8370

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