Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
740 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

...PROLONGED HEAT SPELL TO CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK AND DAILY HEAT
ADVISORIES LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUING OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
MOSTLY DIURNAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FORM TODAY AND AGAIN
WEDNESDAY. HAVE NO REAL FEATURE TO FOCUS ON...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH HEAT AND INSTABILITY THAT STORMS COULD FORM ANYWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...MAYBE FAVORING PORTIONS OF CENTRAL DUE TO A WEAK LEE
TROUGH. WITH LINGERING HEAT AND VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...A FEW
STORMS COULD LAST WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT
CHANCE OR CHANCE POPS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE FRONT SHOULD PUSH INTO TN ON WEDNESDAY BUT NOT SURE
IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE STATE. HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ON
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

AGAIN EXPECTING HOT TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MAX
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 90S FOR ALL EXCEPT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY STILL LOOKS OKAY WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES OF
AROUND 105 CONCENTRATED IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GA.
WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO ISSUE FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON HOWEVER WILL
LET THE NEXT SHIFTS TAKE ANOTHER LOOK IN CASE THE ADVISORY AREA
NEEDS ADJUSTING.

41

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
LONG TERM LOOKING TO BE OVERALL FAIRLY ACTIVE FOR STORM POTENTIAL
FROM VARIOUS SOURCES OF LIFT. THURSDAY HAS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE
BREAKING DOWN AND ONCE AGAIN SHOWING ALL INDICATIONS OF THE RECENT
THREAT OF STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS FROM SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
PROGGED THERMAL PROFILE SHOWS CLASSIC INVERTED-V WITH 2500-3000 CAPE
ATTAINED BY THE STRONG SFC HEATING...AND POSSIBLY EVEN HIGHER AS
RELATIVELY DRY MID-LEVELS ALLOW FOR SOME LOCALIZED COOLING AS CLOUDS
BUILD. PROBABLY TRIGGERED BY LINGERING LEE TROUGH OR PREEXISTING
BOUNDARIES FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY...THEN BECOMING OUTFLOW DRIVEN.
THIS SHOULD BE THE LAST DAY OF HEAT ADVISORY CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GA IN THE CURRENT SULTRY STRETCH.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY ADVERTISE A PATTERN SHIFT AS GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD CONSENSUS WITH UPPER TROUGH DIGGING AND AMPLIFYING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS...ALONG WITH MORE ENHANCED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
WHILE SFC HEATING WILL BE LESS...THE SYNOPTIC FORCING AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONTINUED
WITH LIKELY POPS IN THE NORTH TO HIGH END CHANCE ELSEWHERE. MODELS
ARE GETTING BETTER IN LINE WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT SEWD LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...THOUGH STILL SOME DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH AND
AMOUNT OF COOL AIR ADVECTING IN BEHIND. KEPT TEMP TREND A BIT HIGHER
THAN WHAT GUIDANCE BLEND PRODUCED. NEEDLESS TO SAY WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR POTENTIAL OF MORE ORGANIZED STORM MODES WITH A RETURN OF
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR.

TROUGH AXIS REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THE UPPER FLOW
THAT COULD FOCUS OTHER ROUNDS OF CONVECTION OR BECOME SUSCEPTIBLE TO
A ROGUE MCS OR TWO POSSIBLY COMING ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

BAKER

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-23 TUESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     101 1988     71 1963     77 1944     53 1947
                1944
                1931
   KATL      99 1944     70 1963     77 1944     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     78 1947     75 1954     56 1966
                1981        1936        1951
                1944                    1950
   KCSG     100 1998     81 1983     79 2009     57 1972
                1981        1963
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-24 WEDNESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1930     74 1991     78 1944     53 1947
   KATL      99 1988     74 1991     78 1930     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     77 1991     77 1932     53 1947
                1930        1963
   KCSG     100 1988     80 1963     78 2010     57 1972
                1981
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-25 THURSDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1914     72 1979     76 1931     58 1922
   KATL     100 1914     70 1991     76 2010     59 1889
                                        1952
                                        1914
   KMCN     103 1914     74 1928     77 1930     59 1990
                                        1914
   KCSG     101 1988     76 1963     76 2010     61 1974
                                        1996

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
TAFS AT THIS TIME. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST
6 TO 8KT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ALL ELEMENTS.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          98  75  97  75 /  20  20  30  20
ATLANTA         94  76  94  76 /  20  20  30  20
BLAIRSVILLE     88  68  89  68 /  20  20  40  20
CARTERSVILLE    93  73  94  73 /  20  20  30  20
COLUMBUS        96  76  96  76 /  20  20  30  20
GAINESVILLE     95  75  95  75 /  20  20  30  20
MACON           97  75  97  75 /  20  20  30  20
ROME            95  73  95  74 /  20  20  30  20
PEACHTREE CITY  94  73  94  74 /  20  20  30  20
VIDALIA         98  75  98  76 /  30  30  40  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...
CRISP...DODGE...DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...
HOUSTON...JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...
MACON...MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...
PEACH...PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...
TALIAFERRO...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...
WARREN...WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...
WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....BAKER
AVIATION...41

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1145 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-240915-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1145 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

HEAT INDICES IN PORTIONS OF EAST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REACH OR
EXCEED 105 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...A HEAT ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY REACH
STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS.

WEATHER HAZARDS...

STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS. DANGEROUS HEAT INDEX LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES IN THIS PERIOD MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN PORTIONS OF
EAST AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE THE
GREATER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA.
ADDITIONAL HEAT ADVISORIES MAY VERY WELL BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY AND
AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CHANCES INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN. SOME
STORMS REACHING STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EACH DAY. STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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