Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
258 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS. H5 RIDGE WILL BUILD
A LITTLE STRONGER INTO THE SOUTHEAST BRINGING JUST A LITTLE MORE
HEAT ON TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP SUPPRESS CONVECTION TO A
CERTAIN EXTENT ON TUESDAY. WILL STILL MAINTAIN A 20 POP OVER MOST
AREAS TUESDAY AS A TSTORM COULD DEVELOP JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALTHOUGH
THEY WILL BE ISOLATED. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE MOUNTAINS AND ALSO
CENTRAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH AND HAVE GONE WITH 30 POPS
IN THOSE LOCATIONS.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HAVE MADE MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE LATEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS. FORTUNATELY A REPRIEVE TO THE HOT TEMPERATURES LOOKS TO
BE COMING THIS WEEKEND. HAVE MADE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS FOR
NEXT WEEKEND TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LATEST MODEL BLENDS. NO OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

31

/ISSUED 453 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2015/
MAIN FOCUS ON CONTINUED HEAT SPELL FOR INITIAL PORTION OF LONG
TERM THRU MIDWEEK...THEN ON SWITCH TO A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN NEAR
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

UPPER RIDGE OF RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE STILL BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHEAST CONUS FOR WEDNESDAY...THOUGH DOES APPEAR A BIT WEAKER
THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. STILL LOOKING AT RELATIVELY UNPLEASANT
CONDITIONS WITH SULTRY DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S AND DAYTIME MAX
TEMPS OF MID TO UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...RESULTING IN
PROGGED HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 FOR THE CWA MAJORITY AND SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER VALUES IN EAST CENTRAL GA. OUT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LOOKS TO HAVE THE
GREATER CHANCE FOR A MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT ADVISORY...THEN BECOME
MORE FOCUSED TO EAST CENTRAL GA AGAIN FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN DECENT
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE CAP...HAVE GONE 30-40 POPS
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BOTH WED AND THURS AFTERNOON...THOUGH
THERE IS LITTLE TO FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OTHER THAN A WEAK
LEE TROUGH AND ANY LINGERING BOUNDARIES FROM LOCALIZED PREVIOUS
DEVELOPMENT.

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD CONSENSUS WITH A PATTERN SHIFT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD AND AMPLIFIES
TO SET UP RESIDENCY ACROSS THE EAST CONUS. HAVE RAISED POPS FOR
LIKELY MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/STORMS BEGINNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASED PVA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND CONTINUING THRU THE
WEEKEND AS THE MAIN AXIS STAYS WEST OF THE AREA AND MORE ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ADVECTS SOUTHEASTWARD.

WHILE BOTH WED AND THURS COULD SEE SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE
STORMS DUE TO DECENT AVAILABLE CAPE IN THE 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE
AND SOME GOOD INVERTED-V/DOWNBURST POTENTIAL SIGNATURES IN THE
FCST SOUNDINGS...THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT
WILL BE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS SHEAR VALUES INCREASE IN
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

BAKER

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORDS FOR 06-22 MONDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     102 2006     63 1947     76 1981     58 1972
                1925                                1947
   KATL      98 1964     64 1947     77 1925     56 1947
   KMCN     101 1925     70 1947     78 1915     58 1966
                                                    1947
   KCSG     100 2006     77 1963     77 1981     60 1992
                1988

RECORDS FOR 06-23 TUESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     101 1988     71 1963     77 1944     53 1947
                1944
                1931
   KATL      99 1944     70 1963     77 1944     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     78 1947     75 1954     56 1966
                1981        1936        1951
                1944                    1950
   KCSG     100 1998     81 1983     79 2009     57 1972
                1981        1963
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-24 WEDNESDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1930     74 1991     78 1944     53 1947
   KATL      99 1988     74 1991     78 1930     54 1972
                1930
   KMCN     101 1988     77 1991     77 1932     53 1947
                1930        1963
   KCSG     100 1988     80 1963     78 2010     57 1972
                1981
                1951

RECORDS FOR 06-25 THURSDAY

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAHN     105 1914     72 1979     76 1931     58 1922
   KATL     100 1914     70 1991     76 2010     59 1889
                                        1952
                                        1914
   KMCN     103 1914     74 1928     77 1930     59 1990
                                        1914
   KCSG     101 1988     76 1963     76 2010     61 1974
                                        1996
&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
PERSISTENCE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW. CU FIELD WITH
ISOLATED TSRA THIS AFTERNOON. CU DISSIPATES THIS EVENING THEN
REFORMS TOMORROW MORNING WITH ISOLATED TSRA DEVELOPING IN THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEST TO NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT AND REMAINING LIGHT
TUESDAY.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS
17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  98  74  98 /  20  20  20  40
ATLANTA         75  96  76  95 /  20  20  20  40
BLAIRSVILLE     70  90  69  90 /  30  20  20  40
CARTERSVILLE    70  96  73  96 /  20  20  20  40
COLUMBUS        77  98  75  96 /  20  20  20  40
GAINESVILLE     75  95  74  95 /  20  20  20  40
MACON           74  99  75  97 /  20  20  20  30
ROME            71  97  73  96 /  20  20  20  40
PEACHTREE CITY  73  96  73  94 /  20  20  20  40
VIDALIA         76  98  75  97 /  40  30  30  40

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...JEFFERSON...
JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...MONTGOMERY...PEACH...
PULASKI...SCHLEY...SUMTER...TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...
TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...WASHINGTON...WHEELER...WILCOX...
WILKINSON.

HEAT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES: BALDWIN...BIBB...BLECKLEY...CRAWFORD...CRISP...DODGE...
DOOLY...EMANUEL...GLASCOCK...GREENE...HANCOCK...HOUSTON...
JASPER...JEFFERSON...JOHNSON...JONES...LAURENS...MACON...
MARION...MONROE...MONTGOMERY...MORGAN...OGLETHORPE...PEACH...
PULASKI...PUTNAM...SCHLEY...STEWART...SUMTER...TALIAFERRO...
TAYLOR...TELFAIR...TOOMBS...TREUTLEN...TWIGGS...WARREN...
WASHINGTON...WEBSTER...WHEELER...WILCOX...WILKES...WILKINSON.

&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
254 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231900-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
254 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...
HEAT INDICES IN MAINLY EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA WILL REACH OR EXCEED
105 THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. A HEAT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
ACCORDINGLY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS REACHING STRONG
TO POSSIBLY SEVERE LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

WEATHER HAZARDS...
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT. DANGEROUS HEAT LEVELS IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A PROLONGED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. RESULTANT
HEAT INDICES IN THIS PERIOD MAY REACH OR EXCEED 105 IN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL GEORGIA. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS TO HAVE THE GREATER
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD HEAT CONCERNS ACROSS THE AREA. A HEAT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY. CHANCES INCREASE
FURTHER FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
BREAK DOWN AND ALLOWS FOR OTHER DISTURBANCES TO APPROACH THE AREA
BY THE END OF THE WEEK. SOME STORMS REACHING STRONG TO POSSIBLY
SEVERE LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT EACH DAY. STRONG DOWNBURST
WINDS...HEAVY RAIN...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
511 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

GAZ072-222145-
JONES GA-
511 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN JONES COUNTY UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

AT 511 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER GRAY...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS JONES COUNTY THROUGH 545 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE
GRAY...CLINTON...BRADLEY...JAMES...GREENBERRY CROSSROADS...
GRISWOLDVILLE...HADDOCK...MOUNTAIN SPRINGS...BLOUNTSVILLE AND
POSTELL.

LAT...LON 3285 8354 3302 8364 3313 8347 3307 8340
      3293 8336 3284 8352
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 323DEG 9KT 3302 8351

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

GAZ084-222215-
WILKINSON GA-
539 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WILKINSON COUNTY UNTIL 615 PM EDT...

AT 539 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER TOOMSBORO...OR NEAR IRWINTON. THIS STORM WAS
NEARLY STATIONARY.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS WILKINSON COUNTY THROUGH 615 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
IRWINTON...MCINTYRE AND TOOMSBORO.

LAT...LON 3269 8299 3269 8301 3279 8321 3296 8314
      3295 8308 3291 8305 3288 8305 3288 8304
      3286 8303 3285 8299 3284 8297 3282 8297
      3280 8295
TIME...MOT...LOC 2139Z 289DEG 4KT 3286 8310

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
542 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0438 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NUNEZ                   32.49N  82.35W
06/22/2015                   EMANUEL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER HAS RECEIVED REPORTS OF SEVERAL TREES
            DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF GRANDE CREEK ROAD AND
            HIGHWAY 297. PUBLIC HAS ALSO REPORTED SEVERAL PECAN
            TREES DAMAGED.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500390

KOVACIK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
548 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TSTM WND DMG     GILLIS SPRINGS          32.46N  82.49W
06/22/2015                   TREUTLEN           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER IS RECEIVING REPORTS OF MULTIPLE TREES
            DOWN ON INTERSTATE 16 VERY NEAR DOWNTOWN GILLIS SPRINGS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC1500391

KOVACIK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
554 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

GAZ110-111-222230-
WHEELER GA-TELFAIR GA-
554 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN WHEELER AND TELFAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 630 PM EDT...

AT 553 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MCRAE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS WHEELER AND TELFAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 630 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
MCRAE...HELENA...LUMBER CITY...SCOTLAND...TOWNS...WORKMORE...
JORDAN...LITTLE OCMULGEE STATE PARK AND SPRING HILL.

LAT...LON 3193 8299 3211 8294 3207 8261 3203 8261
      3203 8260 3202 8260 3200 8258 3194 8260
      3193 8261 3192 8265 3192 8268 3191 8268
      3190 8269 3190 8270 3186 8276
TIME...MOT...LOC 2153Z 282DEG 12KT 3201 8289