Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL PATTERN.  THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH AND EAST WITH GOOD
MOISTURE AVAILABLE. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS NORTH
GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS PIEDMONT BY MIDNIGHT THURSDAY MORNING.
MODEL PWATS SHOWING BEST MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE LOW/FRONT MAINLY OVER
EAST/SOUTH PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE DIURNAL IN NATURE WITH BEST TIMING BETWEEN 2-
8PM.  SPC HAS THE ENTIRE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND ALL BUT SOME OF THE NORTHERN COUNTIES IN A
MARGINAL RISK AREA FOR WEDNESDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN STILL POSSIBLE BUT LESS SO THAN THE PAST 2
DAYS. GUIDANCE BLEND TEMPERATURES ARE IN LINE AND SEE NO REASON
TO STRAY.

ATWELL

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW WILL FINALLY PUSH OUT OF THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY WITH NW FLOW ALOFT PATTERN IN CONTROL THRU THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HARD TO FIND A SINGLE FEATURE TO LOCK IN ON
BUT THERE IS A BROAD SHORT WAVE APPARENT ON SAT OVER KY THAT
SHOULD INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA THIS WEEKEND COMPARED WITH
THUR/FRI WHICH WILL BE DRIER IN THE WAKE OF UPPER LOW CURRENTLY
OVER THE AREA.

INSTABILITY APPEARS STRONGLY DIURNAL AND NOT ABOVE AVERAGE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND PATTERN. HOWEVER...PW VALUES WHICH AVERAGE
AROUND 1.5-1.6 THUR/FRI JUMP UP TO 1.6-1.85 THIS WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WHICH IS NEAR THE 91 DAY MOVING AVERAGE OF ALL-TIME DAILY
MAX VALUES BASED ON KFFC/KAHN SOUNDINGS SINCE 1948...BASICALLY
NEAR 98-99TH PERCENTILE BUT NOT A RECORD VALUE. WILL HAVE TO
REMAIN ALERT TO HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL BEGINNING
THIS WEEKEND.

SNELSON

&&

.PREV LONG TERM DISCUSSION /ISSUED 422 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015/
GFS/ECMWF IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE POSITION OF THE
UPPER TOUGH AS IT MOVES OFF THE EAST COAST. THE PROBLEM THE MODELS
HAVE IS WITH TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES MOVING DOWN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW THAT SETS UP BEHIND THE TROUGH. FOR THIS REASON HAVE GONE
WITH BROAD BRUSHING POPS EACH DAY.

17

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
UPPER LOW OVER THE REGION PRODUCING SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE PEAK HEATING
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. WILL MENTION VC WORDING AT
THIS TIME WITH A TEMPO FOR A FEW HOURS AROUND THE ATL METRO AREA
DUE TO CURRENT RADAR TRENDS AND WATCH FOR ANY LOCALIZED
DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE.

LATER TONIGHT...SOME IMPACTS FROM LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES NEAR MCN AND CSG
WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIND DIRECTION/SPEED AND VSBYS TODAY.
LOW CONFIDENCE IMPACTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          63  82  63  82 /  40  50  30  40
ATLANTA         65  82  66  81 /  30  40  20  20
BLAIRSVILLE     56  75  58  77 /  40  60  30  40
CARTERSVILLE    60  81  63  82 /  30  40  20  20
COLUMBUS        66  86  67  87 /  30  30  20  20
GAINESVILLE     62  79  63  79 /  30  50  30  40
MACON           63  86  65  86 /  40  30  30  30
ROME            61  82  63  83 /  30  30  20  20
PEACHTREE CITY  64  83  64  83 /  30  30  20  20
VIDALIA         67  85  67  85 /  60  50  40  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ATWELL
LONG TERM....SNELSON
AVIATION...ATWELL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
224 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-030830-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
224 PM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF NORTH AND
CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM ROME TO
CARTERSVILLE TO GAINESVILLE...WHERE A HIGHER THREAT OF HAIL AND
BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST. ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-20...
ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS. THE
WINDS COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
AROUND LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO CAUSE
BRIEF MINOR FLOODING IN LOW LYING AREAS...ROADS AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS...AS WELL AS SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW STORMS ON WEDNESDAY COULD BE
SEVERE AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

DJN

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