Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
350 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING AFTERNOON
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA MINIMAL. SHORT TERM MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IMPACTING THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY. WRF/NAM/HRRR AGREE UPON EVENING AND LATE NIGHT STORMS
MOVING INTO WESTERN GEORGIA...WITH GENERALLY SHOWERS LINGERING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...BUT MODELS ARE INCONSISTENT ON
TIMING. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS TO PUSH THE STORMS INTO NORTH GEORGIA
AND THE ATL METRO AREA GENERALLY 8PM-12AM. AS A RESULT...HAVE OPTED
TO HIGHLIGHT THAT TIME FRAME WITH THE HIGHEST POPS...BUT GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND THE LIMITED AVAILABLE INGREDIENTS /DIURNAL
HEATING...ETC/...HAVE LIMITED POPS TO GOOD CHANCE.

MODELS DO SHOW DIMINISHING ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...THOUGH UNSETTLED THURSDAY IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVING AN EARLIER START... PARTICULARLY
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA. HAVE SPREAD GOOD CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE STATE
BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY CUT BACK ON POPS
BY THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...AND HAVE GENERALLY USED A
BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

31

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NO CHANGES MADE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA TO START THE EXTENDED WITH WEAKENING SW
FLOW ALOFT. PRECIP CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE A MORE DIURNAL
TENDENCY WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES OVER N GA THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY WITH SOME DRIER AIR MOVING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA.

THE TENDENCY TO FAVOR N GA WITH THE HIGHEST POPS CONTINUES SATURDAY
AS THE RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON SATURDAY FAVORING CENTRAL GA.
SLIGHTLY INCREASED SW FLOW ALOFT ON SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ONCE AGAIN N GA
WITH THE HIGHEST POPS AND THIS IS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE...AS WILL BE THE CASE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

INCREASED DEEPER MOISTURE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL ALLOW FOR CHANCE TO
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER TROUGH DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE.
THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROUGH TO GA WHILE THE GFS HOLDS THE TROUGH
OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING AROUND TO SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
THE LONG TERM.

BDL/01

01

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HIGH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD...WITH DEGRADING CONDITIONS TO MVFR THEREAFTER. TS
POTENTIAL LARGELY EXPECTED 00-03Z...WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS
AFTER. SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO CIGS AFTER 14Z...WITH SHOWERS EARLY.
BEST TS POTENTIAL THU 18-22Z. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND
VRB...WITH MORE OF A SSW DIRECTION TODAY AND SE ON THU.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON TIMING OF CONVECTION AND WIND DIRECTION.
HIGH ON ALL OTHER ELEMENTS.

31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  85  65  86 /  30  40  30  40
ATLANTA         68  82  67  84 /  40  50  40  40
BLAIRSVILLE     61  78  63  78 /  40  50  40  50
CARTERSVILLE    65  81  65  84 /  40  50  40  50
COLUMBUS        68  84  68  87 /  40  50  20  30
GAINESVILLE     65  81  65  82 /  30  40  40  50
MACON           66  84  64  87 /  30  30  20  20
ROME            65  82  65  84 /  50  50  40  50
PEACHTREE CITY  65  81  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
VIDALIA         67  89  67  88 /  30  20  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...31
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...31

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
539 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-282145-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
539 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

ISOLATED STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING...ALONG WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY.
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED
TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
628 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

GAZ102-103-272315-
WEBSTER GA-STEWART GA-
628 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS IN WEBSTER AND
STEWART COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

AT 627 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR WESTON...OR 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF PRESTON...
AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS SOUTH AND CENTRAL WEBSTER AND STEWART COUNTIES THROUGH 715 PM
EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE LUMPKIN...
PRESTON...RICHLAND...WESTON...SEMINOLE...WESTVILLE...
BROOKLYN...TROUTMAN...KIMBROUGH...CENTERPOINT...LEVERETTS AND DUMAS.

LAT...LON 3192 8480 3211 8481 3223 8466 3223 8462
      3219 8459 3219 8457 3218 8456 3217 8454
      3216 8455 3215 8453 3213 8453 3213 8443
      3193 8444 3192 8446
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 154DEG 13KT 3191 8464