Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
313 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE SHORT TERM. FIRST WAVE OF
PRECIP...CURRENTLY OVER AL WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. AS THIS WAVE LIFTS
INTO THE CAROLINAS LATE TONIGHT THE PRECIP WILL DIMINISH. HOWEVER
THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA LATE TUESDAY MORNING AND
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THEN STALL OVER THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 2 INCHES ACROSS WEST AND
NORTH GA...WITH LESS THAN 1 INCH OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IN THE STRONGER
STORMS...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

17

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...KEEPING CHANCE TO LIKELY
POPS ACROSS THE AREA. A MORE DIURNAL TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HAVE MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...MAINLY TO DAY SEVEN
WITH THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSION
IS INCLUDED BELOW.

31

&&

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
/ISSUED 347 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015/
MOIST SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BE OVER THE AREA TO START THE LONG TERM.
SIGNIFICANT DEEPER MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE POTENTIAL
WILL AFFECT N AND MUCH OF CENTRAL GA...WITH CONTINUED RATHER HIGH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...INTO THURSDAY. SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HAVE SOME DIURNAL TENDENCY BUT NOT EXCLUSIVELY. DUE TO
THE POSITION OF THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC...THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE OVER NORTH AND WEST
GA.

A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS SOME ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUES SATURDAY AND SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MUCH MORE DIURNAL TENDENCY TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE GFS AND EUROPEAN UPPER PATTERNS ARE DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY WITH LESS
INFLUENCE OF A RIDGE ALOFT FROM THE EUROPEAN.

RAINFALL TOTALS APPROACHING 3 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF N GA
INTO THURSDAY. WILL BE MONITORING FOR ANY FLOOD ISSUES.

TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
AND 2 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

BDL

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING...HOWEVER EXPECT CONVECTION TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET IN THE MCN/CSG AREAS. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE PRECIP
LATE TONIGHT BUT SHOULD INCREASE AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MOST
AREAS HAVE GONE VFR ON CIG AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON...DROPPING TO IFR LATE TONIGHT WITH A SLOW RISE TO MVFR
LATE TUESDAY MORNING.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON PRECIP TIMING...CIGS
HIGH ON WIND AND VSBYS

17

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          66  83  66  82 /  60  70  80  70
ATLANTA         68  82  67  80 /  60  80  80  70
BLAIRSVILLE     65  76  64  75 /  60  70  80  70
CARTERSVILLE    67  81  66  80 /  60  80  80  70
COLUMBUS        70  85  69  83 /  50  70  60  70
GAINESVILLE     66  79  65  78 /  60  70  80  70
MACON           68  86  68  85 /  50  50  50  70
ROME            67  80  66  80 /  60  80  80  70
PEACHTREE CITY  68  81  67  81 /  60  70  80  70
VIDALIA         71  88  70  87 /  50  40  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....31
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
314 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261315-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
314 PM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE REGION
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH
ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CONTINUE
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS
NORTH GEORGIA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

INSTABILITIES WILL BE THE HIGHEST ACROSS WEST AND NORTH GEORGIA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...GENERALLY WEST OF LINE FROM AMERICUS...TO
JACKSON...TO ATHENS. IT IS IN THIS AREA WHERE STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...STRONG GUSTY
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH ANY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

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