Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
752 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
THE EVENING CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH...
AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. WILL UPDATE ZONES TO LOWER POPS A
BIT FOR THIS EVENING... BUT STILL EXPECT A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...
AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD
FRONT STILL PROGGED TO PUSH INTO NW GA AROUND SUNRISE... THEN ACROSS
ATLANTA BY LATE MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. NO SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT OR ON TUE. /39

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015/
SHORT WAVE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS AL THIS AFTERNOON IS VISIBLE ON
SATELLITE. THIS COULD CONTINUE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE SHOULD BE A GRADUAL
DIMINISHING OF COVERAGE TONIGHT...BUT AIR MASS STILL UNSTABLE ENOUGH
TO LEAVE LOW CHANCE POPS IN ALL NIGHT. UPPER RIDGE FLATTENING SOME
THROUGH THE PERIOD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD DRIFT SOUTH INTO GA
BY MORNING. MODELS SEEM TO BE HOLDING ON TO THE MOISTURE A BIT
LONGER...SO HAVE KEPT POPS IN FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY. GRADUAL DRYING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT EXCEPT FOR A
PORTION OF CENTRAL. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE AND HAVE
STAYED CLOSE.

41

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 259 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015/
MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH A DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE STATE
BEHIND THE EXITING FRONTAL SYSTEM. STILL KEEPING IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL GA WED AS THERE IS STILL A BIT OF RESIDUAL
MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIO0NS OF THE CWA. THIS
DRIER AIRMASS IS SHORT LIVED AS A FEW WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THESE WAVES ARE
ALL WEAK WITH VERY LITTLE DYNAMICS AND NOT MUCH INSTABILITY SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT/CHANCE POPS THROUGH DAY SEVEN WITH
ISOLATED TSRA.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
CONVECTION IS DIMINISHING... WITH A FEW SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
THROUGH AROUND 03Z. LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW
POTENTIAL FOR BKN MVFR CIGS AROUND 11-14Z TUE... WARRANTING SHOWING
SCT015 BKN035 BY 11Z. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ATLANTA
AIRPORTS BETWEEN 12Z-15Z TUE... WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AROUND 08-
10KTS BY 14Z. MODELS HINT AT SCT SHOWERS LINGERING ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT... BUT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF ATL BY 18-19Z TUE. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT VFR CIGS TO PREVAIL ON TUE... WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AND
GUSTY NW WINDS TUE AFTERNOON AFTER FROPA.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM TO HIGH ON ALL ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          67  88  65  89 /  60  40  20  10
ATLANTA         69  86  67  87 /  60  40  10  10
BLAIRSVILLE     62  81  57  83 /  60  40  10   5
CARTERSVILLE    65  85  61  86 /  60  40  10  10
COLUMBUS        70  88  68  90 /  50  40  20  20
GAINESVILLE     67  85  65  86 /  60  40  10  10
MACON           67  90  66  91 /  60  40  20  30
ROME            65  85  61  86 /  60  40  10  10
PEACHTREE CITY  66  86  63  88 /  60  40  10  20
VIDALIA         69  90  70  91 /  60  50  40  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41/39
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
820 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
820 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BE
STRONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS...SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIRMASS MOVES
IN ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY BUT WILL KEEP IN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A
CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH SUNDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
810 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

GAZ089-090-190045-
MUSCOGEE GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
810 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

AT 809 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER NORTH FORT BENNING...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS MUSCOGEE AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 845 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE NORTH FORT BENNING
AND EELBECK/WEST FORT BENNING.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3241 8486 3250 8486 3257 8469 3256 8469
      3256 8467 3252 8469 3253 8464 3249 8464
      3249 8466 3234 8466
TIME...MOT...LOC 0009Z 267DEG 15KT 3245 8480

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
845 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

GAZ090-102-190115-
STEWART GA-CHATTAHOOCHEE GA-
845 PM EDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR DIME SIZED HAIL AND 40 MPH WINDS
IN STEWART AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

AT 843 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF LAWSON ARMY AIR FIELD TO
NORTHWEST OF LUMPKIN TO NORTHEAST OF THE LAKEPOINT RESORT STATE
PARK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DIME SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS STEWART AND CHATTAHOOCHEE COUNTIES THROUGH 915 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CUSSETA...
OMAHA...LOUVALE...RENFROE...BROOKLYN...MANTA...CHRISTOPHER...
CHARLES AND JAMESTOWN/SOUTH FORT BENNING.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3213 8506 3218 8501 3220 8496 3221 8498
      3222 8493 3225 8492 3226 8489 3230 8494
      3232 8498 3235 8466 3223 8466 3222 8464
      3219 8464 3218 8463 3209 8471 3208 8483
TIME...MOT...LOC 0043Z 265DEG 15KT 3225 8494 3216 8490 3215 8498

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