Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
226 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH OF GEORGIA AND THE SOUTHEAST REGION CONTINUES TO BE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN CUT-OFF UPR LOW/SUB-TROPICAL STORM ANA OFF
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND A STRONG STORM SYSTEM OVER THE
SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN. THIS IS RESULTING IN LITTLE IF ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER IMPACTS. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTH GA
MTNS...OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA IS SEEING WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
BENEATH P/CLOUDY SKIES. 18Z TEMPS WERE GENERALLY IN THE LWR TO MID
80S.

OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN THE
OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GA. A
WEAKENING YET PRONOUNCED UPR RIDGE ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS THE
REGION WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY DRY/STABLE AND WARM CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
CONVECTION WILL EXIST BOTH SAT/SUN ORIGINATING FROM THE MTNS OF NE
GA. A FEW SHRA/STORMS COULD DRIFT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-20
CORRIDOR...HOWEVER THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND LOW LVL
SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY ORGANIZED- STRONG/SEVERE STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY. COLD POOL-GENERATED BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BE FOCUS FOR
NEW CONVECTIVE INITIATION. COULD SEE A FEW BRIEF WIND GUSTS
ASSOCIATED WITH ANY STORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...BUT NOT EXECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD OR OF SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT. DAYTIME TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE 80S WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
AROUND 5-8F DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING SUB-TROPICAL
STORM ANA INLAND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA COAST
SUNDAY...THEN TRACKING IT NORTH/NORTHEAST /AWAY FROM GA/ AS THE UPR
LVL FLOW/WESTERLIES BECOME MORE INVOLVED.  DJN.83

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LONGWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY EJECT EAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK...CROSSING THE LOWER MS/TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY WITH
A DIFFUSE FRONT GETTING HUNG UP EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA/AL BY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM BRIEFLY DRYING THINGS OUT MIDWEEK /WEDNESDAY/. BY THE
END OF THE WEEK...A POTENTIAL LOW LVL "WEDGE" SETS UP WITH COOLER
AND WETTER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. DJN.83

&&

AVIATION...
18Z UPDATE...
HAVE SEEN CU FIELD DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHEAST GEORGIA. IT IS POSSIBLE SOME OF THESE COULD DRIFT SW
INTO THE ATL METRO AREA AND HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN THE PDK TAF
WHERE THE BETTER CHANCES OF THIS ARE. WIND DIRECTION HAS BEEN
VARIABLE. EXPECT IT TO GENERALLY BE AROUND NORTH AT
ATL...INITIALLY MORE NNE AND THEN NNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WIND
DIRECTION SHOULD COME BACK TO THE EAST SIDE OVERNIGHT.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...18Z UPDATE...
HIGH CONFIDENCE ON CIGS AND VSBYS. LOW CONFIDENCE ON WIND
DIRECTION.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          62  85  65  87 /   5  10  10  20
ATLANTA         66  86  68  86 /  10  10  10  20
BLAIRSVILLE     59  80  61  82 /  10  40  30  30
CARTERSVILLE    61  86  64  88 /  10  10  10  20
COLUMBUS        66  89  68  91 /   5   5   5  10
GAINESVILLE     63  83  66  84 /  10  20  10  20
MACON           61  87  64  90 /   5   5   5  20
ROME            60  87  63  88 /  10  10  10  20
PEACHTREE CITY  60  85  63  87 /   5   5  10  20
VIDALIA         64  85  67  89 /   0   5   5  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....DJN.83
AVIATION...11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1137 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-090845-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
1137 AM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
GEORGIA MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

MOISTURE FROM SUBTROPICAL STORM ANA COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING
WILL SUPPORT A ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHEAST GEORGIA.
BRIEF WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH...OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS...AND THEN A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A FEW STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS THE PRIMARY THREAT. AT THIS
TIME...WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

GAZ008-009-016-082030-
TOWNS GA-WHITE GA-UNION GA-
407 PM EDT FRI MAY 8 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND PEA SIZED HAIL
IN TOWNS...WHITE AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 405 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR MOCCASIN CREEK STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HIAWASSEE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH.

LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH...AND PEA SIZED HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM AS THIS STORM MOVES ACROSS TOWNS...WHITE AND UNION
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
CLEVELAND...HELEN...UNICOI STATE PARK...BRASSTOWN BALD...SAUTEE...
SMITHGALL WOODS CONSERVATION ARE...LEAF...ANNA RUBY FALLS...CAMP
COLEMAN LAKE...QUALATCHEE LAKE...BLOOD MOUNTAIN SHELTER...VOGEL STATE
PARK...WHITLEY GAP SHELTER...MOUNTAIN SCENE...BLUE MOUNTAIN
SHELTER...ROBERTSTOWN...LOW GAP SHELTER AND BATESVILLE.

LAT...LON 3488 8365 3483 8366 3482 8365 3480 8368
      3476 8363 3473 8362 3472 8364 3469 8364
      3465 8366 3462 8364 3458 8364 3455 8362
      3454 8362 3466 8387 3470 8386 3472 8386
      3474 8395 3493 8379
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 031DEG 11KT 3483 8368