Alert archive / Georgia / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

April 25, 2015Upson County, Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this special weather statement at Apr 25, 2015, 8:09 AM EDT for Upson County, Georgia. It was in force for 36 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 25, 2015, 8:09 AM EDT (12:09 UTC)
Expired: Apr 25, 2015, 8:45 AM EDT
In force: 36 min
Issued by: NWS Atlanta, GA

County Upson County, GA

The radar

The Atlanta radar (KFFC), 64 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 12:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 0.2 hours before the alert went out and 63 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 582 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 78 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 295 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 416 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 25, 7:21 AM EDT, 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 25, 7:21 AM EDT, 48 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
721 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 341 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015/

SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COMPLICATED SURFACE PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE THE U.S.
ACROSS THE CWFA...HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFFSHORE AND AN OLD NEARLY
DIFFUSE SURFACE BOUNDARY IS ACROSS NORTHERN GA. FURTHER WEST...LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WILL MOVE EAST TODAY ALONG ANOTHER
OLD SURFACE BOUNDARY...INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS. REGIONAL RADAR
SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION...AN MCS...MOVING EAST/SLIGHTLY
NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN AL.

IN THE MID LEVELS...AN UPPER LOW/STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
U.S. WILL MOVE EAST INTO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MCS CURRENTLY ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EASTWARD/SLIGHTLY NORTHEASTWARD
THIS MORNING. DON'T THINK THAT THE SYNOPTIC OR HI-RES MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE VERY WELL. IN ADDITION...THE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE SOMEWHAT STEEPER THAN PROGGED.

SPEAKING OF THE HI-RES MODELS...THEY ALL HAVE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS
FOR TODAYS SYSTEM...ESPECIALLY THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION. ALL OF THE
HI-RES MODELS AGREE THAT THE ACTIVITY MOVING IN FROM ALABAMA WILL
IMPACT THE CWFA BY AROUND 09Z. THE SECOND AREA OF STRONGER
CONVECTION...BACK OVER MISSISSIPPI...DRIVEN BY THE STRONG SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MAY NOT WEAKEN AS MUCH AS SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
PROGGING. AT THIS TIME...THE WRF SEEMS TO HAVE A PRETTY DECENT
HANDLE ON WHAT IS GOING ON NOW...INCLUDING THE STRONGER ACTIVITY
ACROSS MISSISSIPPI. SO...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE WRF SOLUTION FOR
THE VERY SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

THE AFTERNOON FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE MURKY. BELIEVE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEPEND VERY HEAVILY ON THAT HAPPENS THIS
MORNING. THE HI-RES MODELS REALLY BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT THIS POINT.
ALL THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN PLACE...INCLUDING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER...EXACTLY
WHEN/WHERE THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP IS THE DIFFICULT
PART OF THE FORECAST. CONVECTIVE INITIATION FOR THE AFTERNOON WILL
DEPEND HEAVILY ON ANY OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES THAT
THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION LAYS DOWN. THIS COULD BE A
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR CONVECTION/SURFACE CONVERGENCE.

AS MENTIONED BEFORE...ALL OF THE PARAMETERS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
BE PRESENT TODAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. GOOD LOW LEVEL
SHEAR/HELICITY AND STRONG SURFACE INSTABILITY WHERE GOOD HEATING
WILL OCCUR. PLUS...A SURFACE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO FOCUS UPON.
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITHIN ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
WITH THE STRONG SHEAR PRESENT...A FEW TORNADOES ARE NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST/STRONGEST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY SHOULD BE
ACROSS THE OH/TN VALLEYS...SO THE BEST CHANCES FOR LARGE HAIL SHOULD
BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWFA. HOWEVER...SINCE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ARE CURRENTLY STEEPER THAN THE MODELS CURRENTLY HAVE
FORECAST...WOULDN'T RULE OUT A LARGE HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORM AT
THIS TIME.

CONVECTION SHOULD LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...ALONG WITH THE
CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER. DO EXPECT ACTIVITY TO LOSE SOME STEAM
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT MAY NOT COMPLETELY DIMINISH WITH THE
SETTING OF THE SUN. HAVE LEFT SOME POPS IN FOR SUNDAY...AS THE
ACTUAL FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOESN'T MOVE THROUGH UNTIL THEN.

NLISTEMAA

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEAK RIDGING AT THE SFC AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE LONG
TERM. SHORTWAVE SLIDES FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE A SFC LOW TRACKS ALONG THE GULF COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE RETURN OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GFS IS SLOWER THAN MODEL RUN LAST NIGHT
IN CLEARING OUT THE PRECIPITATION AND HOLDS ONTO IT THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN FEATURES BETWEEN THE
GFS AND THE ECMWF THE TIMING OF DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION IS FAIRLY
SIMILAR. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THAT SYSTEM AND SHOULD LEAD
TO A FEW DRY DAYS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z UPDATE...
MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE CWFA. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD ONLY LAST UNTIL 13Z OR SO...BUT THE SHOWERS MAY LINGER A
LITTLE LONGER. HI-RES MODELS ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CONVECTION. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE
WHEN/WHERE CONVECTION WILL INITIATE. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH DUE
SOUTH THIS MORNING. THE CURRENT RAINFALL MAY REINFORCE THE SE
WINDS FOR A FEW HOURS LONGER...BUT SUSTAINED SPEEDS SHOULD BE
PRETTY LIGHT. A SWITCH OVER TO THE SW SHOULD OCCUR BY THE EARLY

//ATL CONFIDENCE...12Z UPDATE...
LOW CONFIDENCE ON WHEN/WHERE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL OCCUR.
MEDIUM CONFIDENCE REMAINING ELEMENTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          74  63  81  55 /  90  50  20  10
ATLANTA         75  65  80  56 / 100  30  20   5
BLAIRSVILLE     68  58  71  46 / 100  50  20  10
CARTERSVILLE    76  63  78  51 / 100  30  20  10
COLUMBUS        80  67  85  60 /  90  30  30   5
GAINESVILLE     71  63  77  54 / 100  40  20   5
MACON           79  67  86  58 /  90  50  30   5
ROME            75  62  78  51 / 100  30  20   5
PEACHTREE CITY  77  64  82  54 / 100  30  20   5
VIDALIA         81  69  87  62 /  90  50  30  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 25, 4:19 AM EDT, 3 hours 50 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
419 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-261000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
419 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL..TORNADOES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

DISCUSSION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TODAY BRINGING TWO
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA THROUGH
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL BE THIS MORNING
/THROUGH ABOUT NOON/ WITH A COMPLEX OF STORMS FROM THE WEST MOVING
INTO GEORGIA. THESE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN AS THEY APPROACH THE
STATE BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE MAIN THREAT IS DAMAGING
WINDS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STRONG TO SEVERE SEVERE STORMS
THIS MORNING WOULD BE ACROSS WESTERN GEORGIA.

THE SECOND ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
/GENERALLY AFTER 3PM/ AND LASTING INTO THE EVENING. WHILE THERE IS
MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SECOND ROUND IN TERMS OF COVERAGE OF
STORMS...SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS SUGGEST A GREATER THREAT OF
SEVERE WEATHER WITH THIS AFTERNOON/EVENINGS ROUND OF
THUNDERSTORMS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...BUT THE BETTER CHANCES ARE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. DAMAGING WIND...HAIL AND TORNADOES WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TODAY AND TONIGHT FORECAST TO BE AROUND ONE
TO ONE AND A HALF INCHES...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT
ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY...WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY. IN THE
MEANTIME...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 25, 7:55 AM EDT, 14 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
755 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

GAZ056-058-068-070-251230-
SPALDING GA-PIKE GA-BUTTS GA-LAMAR GA-
755 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
SPALDING... PIKE...BUTTS AND LAMAR COUNTIES UNTIL 830 AM EDT...

AT 754 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILLIAMSON TO NEAR ZEBULON...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS SPALDING...PIKE...BUTTS AND LAMAR COUNTIES THROUGH 830 AM EDT.
HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
GRIFFIN...BARNESVILLE...ZEBULON...MILNER...ORCHARD HILL...
MEANSVILLE...ALDORA...CHAPPEL MILL...REDBONE...LIFSEY SPRINGS...
JOHNSTONVILLE...HILLTOP...GOGGINS...PIEDMONT AND LIBERTY HILL.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3321 8432 3322 8388 3320 8389 3320 8404
      3296 8405 3298 8412 3299 8412 3299 8417
      3305 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1154Z 274DEG 45KT 3319 8430 3309 8442

Special weather statement, Apr 25, 8:09 AM EDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
809 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

GAZ069-079-251245-
TALBOT GA-UPSON GA-
809 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 40 MPH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN IN
TALBOT AND UPSON COUNTIES UNTIL 845 AM EDT...

AT 808 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
MEANSVILLE TO NEAR WOODLAND...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

WIND GUSTS OF 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM AS THIS STORM MOVES
ACROSS TALBOT AND UPSON COUNTIES THROUGH 845 AM EDT.
HEAVY RAIN MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE STORM INCLUDE
THOMASTON...YATESVILLE...LINCOLN PARK...THE ROCK...SUNSET VILLAGE...
HANNAHS MILL...PLEASANT HILL...BIG LAZER CREEK WMA...REDBONE
CROSSROADS...SALEM...LOGTOWN...SUNNYSIDE AND SPREWELL BLUFF STATE
PARK.

THESE WIND GUSTS MAY PRODUCE MINOR DAMAGE TO TREE LIMBS AND BLOW
LIGHT...UNSECURED OBJECTS AROUND.

LAT...LON 3299 8433 3299 8430 3300 8430 3299 8429
      3299 8412 3280 8412 3280 8415 3271 8419
      3272 8423 3273 8423 3272 8426 3274 8428
      3274 8429 3273 8429 3281 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 1208Z 280DEG 42KT 3299 8432 3286 8452

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 25, 7:55 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Lamar, Pike	35 min
Apr 25, 9:27 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Johnson	33 min
Apr 25, 9:47 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Emanuel	28 min
Apr 25, 10:06 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Dodge, Telfair	24 min
Apr 25, 10:31 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Montgomery, Wheeler	29 min
Apr 25, 10:58 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Montgomery, Toombs, Wheeler	32 min
Apr 25, 5:20 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Crawford, Macon, Peach, Taylor	40 min
Apr 25, 5:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bleckley, Houston, Peach, Twiggs	44 min
Apr 25, 5:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Crawford, Macon, Peach, Taylor	46 min
Apr 25, 5:52 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Talbot	23 min
Apr 25, 5:55 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Chattahoochee	35 min
Apr 25, 5:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bibb, Crawford, Houston, Peach	34 min
Apr 25, 6:04 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Chattahoochee, Marion, Muscogee, Talbot, Taylor	21 min
Apr 25, 6:05 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bleckley, Houston, Laurens, Twiggs, Wilkinson	40 min
Apr 25, 6:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bibb, Bleckley, Crawford, Houston, Peach, Twiggs	35 min
Apr 25, 6:30 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Crawford, Houston, Macon, Peach, Taylor	30 min
Apr 25, 6:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Johnson, Laurens, Treutlen, Wilkinson	42 min
Apr 25, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Crisp, Dooly, Sumter, Wilcox	49 min
Apr 25, 6:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Talbot	34 min
Apr 25, 6:56 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bleckley, Dodge, Houston, Laurens, Pulaski, Twiggs	49 min
Apr 25, 6:59 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Twiggs	31 min
Apr 25, 7:08 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Emanuel, Johnson, Laurens, Montgomery, Toombs, Treutlen	52 min
Apr 25, 7:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Bleckley, Dodge, Laurens	50 min
Apr 25, 7:26 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Wilcox	34 min
Apr 25, 7:26 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Emanuel	49 min
Apr 25, 7:48 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	FFC	Baldwin	27 min
Apr 25, 7:55 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Emanuel, Montgomery, Toombs, Treutlen, Wheeler	50 min
Apr 25, 7:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FFC	Montgomery, Telfair, Toombs, Wheeler	63 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Georgia, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.