Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
748 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

.EVENING UPDATE...
A COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA THIS EVENING. THIS COUPLED
WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IS SPARKING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NORTH AL AND NOW PUSHING INTO NW GA. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
TRAVERSE ACROSS MAINLY FAR NORTH GA THROUGH THE EVENING. HIRES
MODELS HOLD THIS ACTIVITY MAINLY NORTH OF ATLANTA THROUGH THE
EVENING...BUT THE HRRR DOES SAG AT LEAST SHOWERS INTO THE ATLANTA
AREA SOMETIME SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH THE
FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS ATLANTA BETWEEN 3-5 AM THU MORNING.
MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS AROUND 400-800 MUCAPE AND 20-25KT 0-1KM BULK
SHEAR... WHICH SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS MOVING
INTO MAINLY NW AND NORTH CENTRAL GA THIS EVENING... WITH SMALL
HAIL... FREQUENT LTG... BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLY WIND GUSTS TO
45 MPH BEING THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS THIS EVENING. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THINGS CLOSELY AS THE FRONT SAGS INTO NORTH GA
THIS EVENING. EXPECT THE CURRENT STORMS TO SHOW SOME WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. /39

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GA THIS EVENING AND INTO
CENTRAL GA BY THURSDAY MORNING...EXITING THE CWA BY 18Z THURSDAY.
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND THEREFORE WILL STAY WITH SLIGHT CHC/LOW
CHC POPS ACROSS NORTH GA TONIGHT AND INTO CENTRAL GA LATE TONIGHT. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA WHICH WILL KEEP
CHC/SLGT CHC POPS ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA THURSDAY...BUT ENDING BY
00Z FRI. THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY THIS EVENING AND WILL KEEP THE
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA...BUT BY 03Z THE INSTABILITY DECREASES
AND WILL GO WITH SHOWERS. WILL PUT THUNDER BACK IN THE GRIDS BY 15Z
AS DAYTIME HEATING HELPS ENHANCE THE LIMITED INSTABILITY THAT THERE
IS.

17

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
/ISSUED AT 237 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015/
NEEDED TO BUMP POPS UP FOR NORTH AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL GA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...MAINLY ONLY TWEAKS TO THE LONG TERM
BASED ON THE LASTEST GUIDANCE.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE BECOME A BIT MORE CONSISTENT...BOTH RUN-TO-
RUN AND AMONGST EACH OTHER...THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST. EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD STARTS OUT DRY AND MILD IN THE WAKE OF THE MID-WEEK
SYSTEM. GFS AND ECMWF NOW MUCH BETTER ALIGNED BRINGING PRECIPITATION
BACK INTO THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY WITH THE BEST CHANCES SATURDAY/
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES SWEEP THROUGH AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS REGION. INSTABILITY IS
NOT FORECAST TO BE ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDER WITH THIS SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS MINIMAL DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY...
STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WINDS SATURDAY BEAR WATCHING. A BIT OF A DRY
PERIOD SUNDAY BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND THE
ECMWF DIVERGE QUITE A BIT. BOTH INDICATE THE PERIOD WILL BE
UNSETTLED...BUT BOTH ALSO APPEAR TO BE SOMEWHAT OVER-AMPLIFIED AND
MORE THAN A LITTLE BIZARRE FOR THIS LATE IN THE SEASON. I BELIEVE ITS
PROBABLY A GOOD IDEA TO KEEP THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE
GENERIC AND NOT SO EXTREME UNTIL THE MODELS HOPEFULLY SETTLE DOWN A
BIT ON LATER RUNS.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A WEAK
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO FAR NW GA WITH THIS UPDATE. RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
EXPECTING MAINLY MID LEVEL CIGS BY 03Z...THEN TEMPO -SHRA BETWEEN 08-
12Z TONIGHT AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECTING CURRENT WEST WINDS
TO SHIFT NW AROUND 08-09Z THU... THEN BECOME GUSTY BY 14-15Z THU.
WILL HOLD MID CLOUDS IN ON THU AS AN ACTIVE NW FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED
IN SOME MODELS.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...
00Z UPDATE...
MEDIUM ON -SHRA. HIGH ON REMAINING ELEMENTS.

39

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATHENS          53  71  46  72 /  20  30   5  20
ATLANTA         55  72  51  72 /  30  40   5  30
BLAIRSVILLE     43  63  38  69 /  20  20   5  20
CARTERSVILLE    46  69  42  70 /  20  30   5  30
COLUMBUS        58  77  55  78 /  30  40  10  30
GAINESVILLE     52  69  48  69 /  20  20   5  20
MACON           55  77  51  76 /  20  40   5  30
ROME            47  70  43  69 /  20  30   5  30
PEACHTREE CITY  52  74  48  72 /  30  40   5  30
VIDALIA         60  82  59  78 /  20  40   5  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...17

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
832 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-231000-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-
CRAWFORD-CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DEKALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-
FANNIN-FAYETTE-FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-
GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-
JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-
MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-
MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-
PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-
SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-TELFAIR-TOOMBS-
TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-WARREN-
WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
832 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH AND CENTRAL
GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH GEORGIA THROUGH THE EVENING... MAINLY NORTH OF A CEDARTOWN TO
CANTON TO CLEVELAND LINE. A FEW STORMS COULD BE STRONG OVER FAR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL GEORGIA THIS EVENING.

WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED...
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN... FREQUENT LIGHTNING... SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND A COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO FAR NORTH GEORGIA
WILL INTERACT WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH
GEORGIA THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED... A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL. THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD GREATLY DIMINISH BEFORE
MIDNIGHT AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES EAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THERE IS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED BUT SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
SUBMIT REPORTS OF SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEB BY GOING TO
WEATHER.GOV/ATLANTA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
836 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

GAZ011-012-019-230100-
GORDON GA-CHATTOOGA GA-FLOYD GA-
836 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN GORDON...CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM EDT...

AT 836 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SUMMERVILLE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS GORDON...CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES THROUGH 900 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
ROME...CALHOUN...SUMMERVILLE...PLAINVILLE...SHANNON...LYERLY...
EVERETT SPRINGS...SUGAR VALLEY...ARMUCHEE...HOLLAND...OOSTANAULA...
BERRYTON...LAKE MARVIN...JAMES H. FLOYD STATE PARK...PINSON AND
TIDINGS.

LAT...LON 3461 8499 3440 8491 3440 8495 3438 8496
      3439 8497 3440 8497 3440 8498 3438 8498
      3439 8500 3435 8501 3435 8502 3433 8502
      3427 8541 3444 8547
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 253DEG 31KT 3438 8536

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
844 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

GAZ002-004-005-012-230115-
MURRAY GA-GORDON GA-WHITFIELD GA-WALKER GA-
844 PM EDT WED APR 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PEA SIZED HAIL AND 35 MPH WINDS
IN MURRAY...GORDON...WHITFIELD AND WALKER COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM
EDT...

AT 844 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DALTON...MOVING EAST AT 35
MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZED SIZED HAIL...
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH AS THEY
MOVE ACROSS MURRAY...GORDON...WHITFIELD AND WALKER COUNTIES THROUGH
915 PM EDT.

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE
DALTON...CHATSWORTH...RESACA...FORT MOUNTAIN STATE PARK...NORTH
GEORGIA SPEEDWAY...MILL CREEK...VILLANOW...NICKELSVILLE...RAMHURST...
CARTERS...TILTON...AUDUBON AND OAKMAN.

LAT...LON 3477 8464 3473 8466 3453 8465 3460 8515
      3478 8513
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 275DEG 30KT 3469 8505

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