Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHT DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL BE A SLIGHT BREAK IN THE
HEAT AS TEMPERATURES AND RESPECTIVE HEAT INDICES FALL TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR TODAY AND LIKELY AGAIN TOMORROW OVER THE HILL COUNTRY. SOME
STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED 40-50 MPH WIND GUSTS.

HEAT INDEX VALUES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE CLIMBED INTO THE 100-106F
RANGE AS OF 3PM WITH MOST AREAS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS REACHING 100F. THESE WARM SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
YIELDING ~1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE AND IN COMBINATION WITH A WEAK
IMPULSE PIVOTING AROUND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE...IS AIDING SCATTERED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND
EDWARDS PLATEAU. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS WELL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BUT WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY POST SUNSET. THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE PLATEAU HOWEVER WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
AS IT PUSHES ACROSS VAL VERDE AND THE BIG BEND REGION.

QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
RESTABLIZES WITH BUT A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS COULD PERSIST ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. ANOTHER REPEAT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
IS EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE LONG AWAITED SLIGHT BREAK FROM THE HEAT WILL TAKE PLACE LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO MID
TO UPPER 90S VS. THE UPPER 90S AND 100F THAT HAVE BEEN OCCURRING.
SLIGHTLY GREATER RAIN CHANCES WILL BE LIKELY 30-40% FOR A WIDER
AREA AS WELL WITH SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER.

BY LATE WEEKEND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE
REGION FOR THE PAST COUPLE WEEKS WILL BE REPLACE WITH A CUT-OFF
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW. THIS WILL AID IN SLIGHTLY MORE CLOUD COVER
WITH COOLER LOW TO MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. LOWER 90S FOR THE HILL
COUNTRY AND MID TO UPPER 90S FOR REMAINING AREAS LOOKS TO BE ON
TAP FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. GIVEN THIS HEATING AND SOME
SLIGHTLY STRONGER CYCLONIC LIFT...ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND 30-40%
CHANCE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS ACTIVITY ACROSS A DECENT AMOUNT OF THE
REGION. NOT EXPECTING ANY WIDESPREAD RAINS AND THUS LITTLE DROUGHT
RELIEF IS EXPECTED. GFS AND EC MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE MID WEEK ON
LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS POSITIONING AND STRENGTH. EC CONSISTENCY HAS
BEEN MORE ERRATIC WITH THE POSITION FROM RUN-TO-RUN VS. GFS MODEL
AND GFS ENSEMBLE ENVELOPE SUGGEST MORE SUPPORT FOR THIS CAMP. A
FRONT MAY SHIFT SOUTH ACROSS THE RED RIVER BY THURSDAY BUT STALL
NORTH OF THE REGION AND KEEP THE REGION ON THE WARM AND POP-UP
CONVECTIVE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY VS. MORE STRATIFORM RAIN LIKELY
FARTHER NORTH. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS SOLUTION AND ITS
EVOLUTION THROUGH NEXT WEEK FOR MORE HOPEFUL RAIN RELIEF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              77  98  76  97  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  97  72  96  71 /  10  10  10  10  10
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     76  99  74  98  73 /  20  10  10  20  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            76  96  74  95  73 /  10  20  20  10  10
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           79  99  77  97  76 /  20  20  20  -   -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        76  97  75  95  74 /  10  10  10  10  10
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  98  73  96  72 /  20  20  20  10  10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        77  97  74  96  73 /  20  10  10  10  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  98  74  97  74 /  20  10  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       79  98  76  95  75 /  20  10  10  20  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           78  99  75  97  74 /  20  10  10  20  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...05
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
613 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-151115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
613 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
TODAY. HEAT INDEX VALUES FRIDAY WILL RANGE FROM 100 TO 107
DEGREES.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND EDWARDS PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TXZ183-142200-
VAL VERDE TX-
420 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY UNTIL
500 PM CDT...

AT 419 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7
MILES EAST OF COMSTOCK...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... COMSTOCK...LAKE AMISTAD...BOX CANYON-
AMISTAD...SEMINOLE CANYON STATE PARK AND PAFFORD CROSSING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2983 10103 2967 10093 2948 10116 2952 10117
      2953 10126 2957 10124 2962 10125 2963 10126
      2962 10128 2958 10128 2959 10131 2965 10130
      2966 10135 2965 10136 2970 10137 2972 10140
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 063DEG 8KT 2972 10106

RUNYEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
447 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

TXZ183-142230-
VAL VERDE TX-
447 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 530 PM CDT...

AT 446 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13
MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARTA VALLEY...OR 17 MILES SOUTH OF LOMA ALTA...
MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND PEA SIZED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
COMSTOCK...BOX CANYON-AMISTAD...PAFFORD CROSSING...ROUGH CANYON REC
AREA AND DEVILS SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2970 10122 2979 10082 2962 10074 2946 10106
      2947 10109 2947 10111
TIME...MOT...LOC 2146Z 068DEG 15KT 2968 10087

RUNYEN