Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
642 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

.AVIATION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE TAFS WITH VARIOUS SHIFTS IN
WINDS... CIGS...AND TSRA/SHRA BANDS AS TROPICAL STORM BILL PASSES
JUST EAST OF THE I-35 TAF SITES. BUT IN SIMPLE TERMS...EXPECT MVFR
CIGS WITH TEMPO IFR CIGS AT THE I-35 SITES THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
WINDS WILL START OUT FROM THE EAST AND SHIFT TO THE NORTH...THEN
BACK TO SOUTHEAST IN BILL/S COUNTERCLOCKWISE CIRCULATION. WIND
SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 15G25KT RANGE THROUGH 08Z...THEN SUSTAINED
AT 10-12KT AFTERWARD. SHRA WILL BE COMMON WITH VSBYS DOWN TO
2SM...BUT EXPECT OCCASIONAL TSRA AS WELL. KDRT IS VERY
DIFFERENT...GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...LESSER RAIN
CHANCES...AND SHORTER PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 448 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015/

..HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...
TROPICAL STORM BILL MADE LANDFALL LATE THIS MORNING NEAR PORT
O CONNOR TEXAS AND CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10
MPH. THE TRACK FOR BILL CONTINUES TO REMAIN CONSISTENT...WITH THE
LATEST FORECAST SHOWING A SLIGHT WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT OVER THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. BILL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT MOVES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...THEN
TURN NORTHWARD AS IT MOVES INTO CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS. BASED ON
THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK FOR BILL...WE HAVE NOT MADE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. WE CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH MORNING SOUNDINGS AT
KDRT AND KCRP SHOWING 1.87" AND 2.36"...RESPECTIVELY. WE/LL
CONTINUE TO SEE PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAM INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
AS BILL MOVES NORTHWESTWARD. HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING
CONTINUE TO REMAIN THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN...ESPECIALLY GIVEN
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEMS TEND TO FLARE UP
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY AND EVEN THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. A STOUT SOUTHERLY FLOW AS ADVERTISED BY AVERAGE 20-30KT
WINDS AT 925MB WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY AMPLE MOISTURE TO THE
REGION. THIS MOISTURE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND RESIDUAL
TROUGHING IN THE MID-LEVELS WILL CONTINUE A GOOD CHANCE FOR RAIN
AND CONTINUED FLOODING CONCERNS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WITH
THIS IN MIND...THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL
NOON THURSDAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION RAINFALL EVENT AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 6 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN INVERTED MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU
AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. WE/LL CONTINUE TO
FORECAST AT LEAST ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES IN
THE 20-30% RANGE FOR MOST AREAS. THE MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE WITH
REGARDS TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH THE GFS HOLDING ON TO MORE TROUGHING...WHILE THE ECMWF
SHOWS STRONGER MID-LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR NOW...WE/LL
GENERALLY NOT DEVIATE FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST...WHICH CALLS FOR
LOW CHANCES FOR MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              73  84  72  87  73 / 100  90  70  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  85  73  86  72 / 100 100  70  60  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     74  86  73  87  73 /  90  90  70  60  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            72  82  72  85  71 /  90  80  60  60  30
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           74  92  74  90  74 /  50  40  30  20  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  82  72  85  72 / 100  90  70  60  30
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             74  88  73  87  72 /  60  60  70  50  30
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  84  72  86  72 / 100  90  70  60  30
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   76  85  74  87  74 / 100 100  60  50  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       75  87  74  87  74 /  80  80  70  60  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  88  74  87  74 /  80  80  70  60  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...FAYETTE...GILLESPIE...GONZALES...
GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...
MEDINA...TRAVIS...WILLIAMSON...WILSON.

TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES: DE WITT...
FAYETTE...GONZALES...LAVACA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...26
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...24
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...TREADWAY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-172345-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
617 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TONIGHT.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR LAVACA...DEWITT...
GONZALES...AND FAYETTE COUNTIES.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR COUNTIES
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MOUNTAIN HOME TO HONDO TO JOURDANTON.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR
LAVACA...FAYETTE AND LEE COUNTIES.

THE IMPACTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
THE EASTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AS THE STORM CONTINUES TO
TRACK TO THE NORTH. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
BILL...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO HIGH IMPACT FLASH
FLOODING TONIGHT.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD THREAT...ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE IN BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 77.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES COULD BE
POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF U.S. 281 WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND EAST OF A
GEORGETOWN TO CUERO LINE. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT
THROUGH 1 PM CDT THURSDAY. THE HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO HIGH
IMPACT FLASH FLOODING ALONG WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING OF SOME
RIVERS AND CREEKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ARE ENCOURAGED TO SUBMIT RAINFALL REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO.

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