Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
833 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.UPDATE...
CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN COUNTIES HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAVE MOVED INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY AND
ADJUSTED POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. STORMS HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY WEAKENING AND EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONTINUE AS INSTABILITY
CONTINUES TO DECREASE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 635 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

AVIATION...
/00Z TAFS/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE I-35 SITES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT(2 AM CDT FOR KDRT). THEN...CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
LOWER TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID MORNING ON
SATURDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN BY 18Z SATURDAY
ACROSS AREA TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10
KNOTS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS KDRT THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED SHOWERS TRAVERSE
FROM WEST TO EAST OVER VAL VERDE COUNTY. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE NORTHWARD FROM THE COASTAL PLAINS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND APPROACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR. WE WILL WAIT FOR NEW
GUIDANCE BEFORE ADDING SHOWERS TO THE I-35 TAFS FOR THIS PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 250 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POTENTIALLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO EAST OF I-35 WILL DISSIPATE
AROUND SUNSET. A FEW SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP TOWARDS THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER WEST...CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MEXICO AND THE
BIG BEND. SEVERAL HI RES MODELS INDICATE STORMS DEVELOPING IN A
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LINE AND MOVING EAST TOWARDS THE FAR WESTERN
CWA. HOWEVER...A PRONOUNCED CAP AROUND 750MB WAS OBSERVED ON THE
12Z DRT SOUNDING AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS STILL REVEALS SIGNIFICANT
CIN OCCURRING ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. SO EXPECT THE TREND TO BE
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS EVENING
WILL WEAKEN. BEFORE WEAKENING...ANY STORMS THAT DO MAKE IT INTO
FAR WESTERN VAL VERDE COULD BE STRONG.

THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO OPEN/WEAKEN AND LIFT NORTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.
AT THE SAME TIME A BROAD TROUGH TO THE WEST OVER MEXICO AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND PUSH WHAT IS LEFT
OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER
DEEPEST MOISTURE WILL REMAIN POOLED EAST OF THE AREA SATURDAY AND
BETTER FORCING NORTH AND WEST. SO EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN IN
PRECIP COVERAGE AND TEMPS SATURDAY...MAYBE A VERY SLIGHT INCREASE
IN COVERAGE ACROSS THE EAST...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY EAST OF I-35.

LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS TO THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE BETTER MOISTURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS WEST SUNDAY INTO EVENTUALLY
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY. SO POPS ARE GRADUALLY STEPPED UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT EACH DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE MENTIONED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE HWO.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK BECOMES CHALLENGING. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON A DEEP POOL OF MOISTURE AND
TROPICAL WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TOWARD THE WEAKNESS ACROSS TEXAS. GLOBAL
MODELS BRING THIS WAVE TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
EARLY TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...PLEASE MONITOR NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE WEEKEND FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
BUT GIVEN AT LEAST AN OPEN WAVE AND SIGNIFICANT TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POPS WERE RAISED
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ADDED INTO THE HWO FOR MID WEEK. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              75  91  74  91  73 /  10  20  20  40  20
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  74  90  73  90  71 /  10  20  20  40  20
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     75  92  74  91  72 /  10  20  20  40  20
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            73  90  72  89  72 /  10  20  20  30  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           77  94  77  94  75 /  40  10  20  10  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        73  90  73  90  72 /  10  20  20  40  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             75  92  75  91  74 /  10  20  10  20  20
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        75  90  74  90  72 /  10  20  20  40  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   75  90  74  90  73 /  20  40  20  50  30
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       76  92  76  91  74 /  10  20  20  30  20
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           75  92  75  92  74 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...HAMPSHIRE
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-132000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
255 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING ACROSS VAL VERDE COUNTY. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
STRONG...PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...IN
ADDITION TO DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

NO OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL.

A TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
913 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TXZ183-130300-
VAL VERDE TX-
913 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 1000 PM CDT...

AT 912 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BOX CANYON-AMISTAD...OR 8 MILES SOUTH OF COMSTOCK...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
AMISTAD VILLAGE...LAKE VIEW...BOX CANYON-AMISTAD...ROUGH CANYON REC
AREA AND DEVILS SHORES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2965 10130 2968 10085 2941 10087 2944 10105
      2946 10106 2947 10115 2952 10117 2952 10125
      2958 10124 2963 10126 2962 10128 2959 10128
      2957 10130
TIME...MOT...LOC 0212Z 275DEG 17KT 2956 10119

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
935 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

TXZ183-202-130315-
VAL VERDE TX-KINNEY TX-
935 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN KINNEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN VAL VERDE COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

AT 935 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LAKE VIEW...OR 10 MILES NORTH OF DEL RIO...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE VIEW...AMANDA AND ROUGH CANYON REC AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2944 10101 2962 10099 2962 10055 2935 10058
TIME...MOT...LOC 0235Z 275DEG 17KT 2952 10092

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