Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
308 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...
TRICKY FORECAST REMAINS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THE LEFT OVER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM
KERRVILLE TO SAN MARCOS TO BASTROP HAS BEGUN TO LIGHT UP WITH
STORMS WITHIN THE LAST HOUR OR SO. THE MCS THAT BEGUN THIS MORNING
TO OUR NORTHWEST ACROSS FORT STOCKTON HAS DEVELOPED SOUTHWARD AND
TAKEN A MORE EASTERLY TRACK AND NOW EXTENDS FROM UVALDE SOUTH TO
CARRIZO SPRINGS AS A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS.

THE HRRR HAS BEEN THE MODEL WITH THE BEST HANDLE ON BOTH FEATURES.
MOST OF THE OTHER MESOSCALE MODELS (TEXAS TECH WRF/ARM/NMM) ALL DO
NOT HAVE THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS TO THE WEST. THE HRRR PUSHES THE
THE MCS TO THE EAST AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN IT WHILE MOVIING THE
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SOUTH WITH THE BOUNDARY. IT THEN SEEM
TO DEVELOP A FEW MORE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE WEAK
FRONT AS IT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION
WILL PUSH TO THE SOUTH AND EAST BY ABOUT 8 PM TONIGHT WITH
ISOLATED ACTIVITY CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS...ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT ARE SLOWLY
MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES ACROSS THE
WHOLE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND AN INCH WITH
HIGHER TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES POSSIBLE. IT IS SET TO
EXPIRE AT 7 AM TOMORROW...BUT COULD POSSIBLY BE CANCELED EARLY
ONCE STORMS PUSH OUT OF THE AREA TONIGHT. LATER SHIFTS WILL RE-
EVALUATE AND MAKE CHANGES TO THE WATCH AS NEEDED.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUING ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING ALONG THE WEAK COLD
FRONT AS IT CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH. WITH THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT
AROUND THE AREA WE COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY...BUT CHANCES REMAIN LOW. ONCE THE
FRONT PUSHES WELL TO OUR SOUTH LATE SUNDAY THE LONG AWAITED DRYING
TREND WILL BEGIN. SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND PLEASANT
WITH LOWS ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN THE LOW TO MID
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE THE SAME AS
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES AND BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWEST
U.S. THIS WILL KEEP SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND KEEP THE AREA MOSTLY DRY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
ALONG THE TEXAS SEA BREEZE LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL WELCOME THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE AS A CHANCE TO DRY OUT FROM A
VERY WET AND STORMY MONTH OF MAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              66  84  64  86  66 /  50  20  -   10  -
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  64  83  61  85  64 /  50  20  -   10  -
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     67  85  64  87  66 /  50  30  -   -   -
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            64  81  62  84  65 /  40  20  -   10  -
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           66  87  69  89  70 /  40  30  -   20  -
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        65  82  62  84  65 /  40  20  -   -   -
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             66  85  65  87  66 /  50  30  -   10  -
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        65  83  63  85  65 /  50  20  -   -   -
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   68  84  63  85  67 /  60  40  -   20  -
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       67  85  66  86  68 /  50  30  -   10  -
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           68  85  67  86  67 /  60  30  -   10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES: ATASCOSA...BANDERA...BASTROP...BEXAR...BLANCO...BURNET...
CALDWELL...COMAL...DE WITT...DIMMIT...EDWARDS...FAYETTE...FRIO...
GILLESPIE...GONZALES...GUADALUPE...HAYS...KARNES...KENDALL...KERR...
KINNEY...LAVACA...LEE...LLANO...MAVERICK...MEDINA...REAL...TRAVIS...
UVALDE...VAL VERDE...WILLIAMSON...WILSON...ZAVALA.

&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...17
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...TREADWAY
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-204>209-220>225-311745-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-MEDINA-BEXAR-
COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-
DE WITT-LAVACA-
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND CONTAIN LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH TOTALS OF NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. EVEN THESE LOWER AMOUNTS
IN A QUICK TIME FRAME COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN MANY AREAS
GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALSO...A FEW
STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINS ARE APPEARING LESS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TXZ202-203-217>219-228-311745-
KINNEY-UVALDE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-FRIO-DIMMIT-
1238 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS UNTIL 7 PM THIS EVENING DUE TO A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY THUNDERSTORM
WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SLOW MOVING AND CONTAIN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED WITH TOTALS OF NEAR 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. EVEN THESE LOWER
AMOUNTS IN A QUICK TIME FRAME COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN MANY
AREAS GIVEN THE SATURATED CONDITIONS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ALSO...A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY. HEAVY
RAINS ARE APPEARING LESS LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY AS THESE STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS PUSH EAST ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

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