Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
716 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.AVIATION.../00Z TAFS/
SCT TSRA FORMING ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN OF MEXICO MAY SNEAK INTO
DRT OVER THE NEXT THREE HOURS. CONSIDERING CONVECTIVE TRENDS KEEP
TSRA SOUTH OF DRT AND MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPLIT ON HOW FAR NORTH
AND EAST COVERAGE WILL SPREAD AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE PROGRESS
ACROSS THE RIO GRAND PLAINS...DECIDED TO CARRY VCTS THERE FOR NOW.
ISO TSRA SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF AUS...BUT WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.

MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW WITH WEAK ASCENT WILL ONCE AGAIN CAUSE CIGS
TO LOWER TO MVFR BETWEEN 3-6Z AND IFR BETWEEN 6-9Z BEFORE LIFTING
TO MVFR BETWEEN 15-18Z AND VFR AFTER 18Z. CIGS MAY BRIEFLY LOWER
TO LIFR BETWEEN 9-12Z...BUT GUIDANCE EXCLUDING THE GFS HAS TRENDED
AWAY FROM THAT. ISO TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA MAY DEVELOP AGAIN ALONG A
WEAK SW-NE ORIENTED SURFACE BOUNDARY TOMORROW...BUT COVERAGE AND
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE VCTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
ALL IS QUIET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BUT THINGS
SHOULD START TO PICK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY
ALONG THE WESTERN CWA. 12Z UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS AREA UNDER
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN 500 HEIGHT BUT STEEP MID-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 850 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE 850 DEWPOINT AT KDRT
TO BE 14C WHICH SIGNIFIES VERY RICH LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS. LATEST
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE DRYLINE PRETTY FAR TO THE WEST...BUT
HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE IS PERSISTENT WITH INITIATING CONVECTION
WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS APPEARS TO BE
BEGINNING AT THE PRESENT TIME. THE BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH
ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE AND WHETHER OR NOT IF FORMS INTO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. ANY COMPLEX WOULD HAVE A STORM MOTION THAT
WOULD BRING IT INTO OUR WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES AFTER 00Z.
WILL CARRY THE HIGHEST POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND ALSO MENTION
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE FORECAST GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE. PW VALUES ARE GREATER THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERE PARAMETERS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SPC HAS PLACED VAL VERDE COUNTY
AND SOME OF MAVERICK AND KINNEY COUNTY IN A SLIGHT RISK WITH A
MARGINAL RISK A BIT FARTHER EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS AREAS WHICH HAS ALREADY SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL...AND THIS
IS PRIMARILY THE SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WILL FORGO A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH NOW AS THE CONFIDENCE IN THERE BEING ENOUGH ACTIVITY TO
BRING A MCS INTO OUR CWA IS LOW...BUT THIS IS POSSIBLE AND
SOMETHING THAT NEEDS TO BE WATCHED THIS EVENING. THE OTHER
CONCERN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IS ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
ARE AROUND THE AREA. THIS MORNING ON VISIBLE SATELLITE WE COULD
SEE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING WEST FROM THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY. CANT FIND ANY EVIDENCE OF THE BOUNDARY ANY MORE ON
SATELLITE OR ON A SURFACE ANALYSIS BUT THIS DOESNT MEAN IT IS NOT
THERE. THE LLJ WILL BE QUITE STRONG AGAIN TONIGHT AND THERE COULD
BE REGENERATION OF ACTIVITY ON ANY OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA.

FOR TOMORROW...THE BEST LOW-LEVEL LIFT SEEN ON 850 THETA-E
ADVECTION CHARTS WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES AND
WILL CARRY THE BEST POPS FOR THESE LOCATIONS. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED BUT THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE
OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN. ANY SEVERE CONVECTION SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...CLOSER TO THE
DRYLINE.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL BE MOVING EAST AND AS IT DOES SO CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE
NEAR THE LUBBOCK AREA. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GROW INTO A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX AND MCS PROPAGATION VECTORS WILL BRING ANY
SYSTEM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES. THINK THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR NOW.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
SHOULD SEE A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST THEN RETURNS WET
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE REMAINS DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
OTHER MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE HANDLING OF A COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS HAS BEEN THE NORM FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
WEEKS...ANOTHER UPPER LOW WILL PUSH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AT
THE SAME TIME THE PREVIOUS UPPER LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE LATTER WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH...BUT IT SHOULD
HAVE A HARD TIME MOVING SOUTH AT SOME POINT GIVEN THE SW WINDS
ALOFT. THE MAIN DRIVING FOR THE SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION OF THE
FRONT SHOULD BE DUE TO CONVECTION/COLD POOLS. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH THE CONSENSUS AND HAVE HIGHER POPS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...THE UPPER LOW WILL DEPART THE SW CONUS
AND WILL PASS CLOSER TO OUR AREA THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM WHICH
SHOULD KEEP THE HIGHER RAIN CHANCES ONGOING. BOTH THE GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE STRONG SIGNALS FOR HEAVY RAIN SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS FOR ANY CHANGES. WE MUST CONTINUE TO
STRESS...WITH RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY LATER THIS WEEK AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND...WE WILL CONTINUE
TO HAVE POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. PLEASE CONTINUE TO STRESS THE
TURN AROUND DOWN DROWN SLOGAN AS WE CONTINUE THE ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              72  85  72  86  69 /  30  30  20  20  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  72  85  72  85  69 /  30  30  20  20  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     72  85  71  86  70 /  30  30  10  20  30
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            70  83  70  83  67 /  30  40  20  20  40
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           71  87  72  87  70 /  50  30  20  20  50
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        71  83  71  84  68 /  20  40  20  20  40
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             72  87  72  86  71 /  30  20  20  20  40
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        73  85  72  85  70 /  30  30  10  20  20
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   73  86  72  86  71 /  20  30  10  20  20
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       73  86  72  86  71 /  30  30  10  20  30
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           74  87  73  87  72 /  30  20  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...01
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...ALLEN
PUBLIC SERVICE/DATA COLLECTION...33

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
410 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191000-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
410 AM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT MOST AREAS. AN ISOLATED STRONG
STORM OR TWO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE
PLAINS THIS EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
632 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ171-190015-
LLANO TX-
632 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY UNTIL
715 PM CDT...

AT 631 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
LLANO...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LLANO...FIELD CREEK AND VALLEY SPRING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3092 9867 3074 9862 3068 9882 3087 9895
      3090 9896 3092 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 2331Z 158DEG 11KT 3078 9876

ALLEN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
703 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

TXZ171-190045-
LLANO TX-
703 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LLANO COUNTY UNTIL
745 PM CDT...

AT 702 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN...OR 13 MILES SOUTHWEST OF LLANO...MOVING NORTH AT
15 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM. A STRONGER AND MORE POTENT STORM ALSO EXISTS FOR THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY NEAR VALLEY SPRING.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PRAIRIE MOUNTAIN...OXFORD...ENCHANTED ROCK STATION AND CASTELL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3077 9877 3055 9868 3050 9886 3050 9888
      3067 9897 3073 9896
TIME...MOT...LOC 0002Z 163DEG 14KT 3060 9881

ALLEN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
710 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             9 NW LLANO              30.84N  98.78W
05/18/2015  M0.88 INCH       LLANO              TX   PUBLIC

&&

EVENT NUMBER EWX1500411

CVP

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