Special Weather Statement, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
231 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...
SEMI ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS FOLLOWED BY A
FRONT THIS WEEKEND THEN DRYING OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS OF 2 PM THERE IS A MULTICELL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
APPROACHING BEXAR COUNTY AND SAN ANTONIO. THE HRRR TAKES THIS
COMPLEX AS WELL AS OTHER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD OF IT
EASTWARD IMPACTING A BASTROP SOUTH TO GONZALES AND KENEDY LINE.
MODEL SOUNDINGS FROM THE NAM SHOW AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE ALONG
AND EAST OF I-35 THIS AFTERNOON WITH 1000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
50-60 KNOTS OF SHEAR. THIS MEANS THAT THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS IS
MOVING INTO A VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.
WE CONTINUE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND
EAST OF US HWY 281. WE HAVE ALSO SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OUT OF
THE ONGOING STORMS SO SOME LOCALIZED FLOODING IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH ANY SEVERE WEATHER THAT DOES OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES REMAINS LOW
AS LOW LEVEL SHEAR IS WEAK.

OTHER FEATURES IN PLAY TODAY ARE A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
RED RIVER IN NORTH TEXAS AND THE DRYLINE OUT IN WEST
TEXAS...ALTHOUGH OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED DRYLINE STORM NEITHER WILL
IMPACT OUR WEATHER MUCH. GENERAL RIDGING IS FORECAST TO TAKE
PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO
MOVES SLOWLY EAST. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG CAP ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON MODELS DO
WEAKEN THE CAP WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE TOMORROW FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WITH 50 KNOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SHEAR AND 2000-3000
J/KG OF CAPE. THE DAY 2 OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS THE WHOLE AREA IN A
SLIGHT RISK FOR TOMORROW...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
AGAIN THE PRIMARY THREATS.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
WILL BE A PERIOD OF HIGHER QPF...HIGHER RAIN CHANCES. THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT SPREADING TO AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 FOR FRIDAY. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL PROVIDE THE
NEEDED LIFT FOR THIS PRECIPITATION. CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER
CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY WITH THE BEST INSTABILITY LOCATED ALONG AND
WEST OF I-35. AS THE TROUGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY. THE NEXT
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE GFS AND NEW 12Z
ECMWF DISAGREE BY ABOUT 24 ON THE TIMING OF THIS FRONT...WITH THE
ECMWF BRING THE SLOWER OF THE TWO. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE
FORECAST AND CHANCE POPS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...DRYING OUT
TUESDAY. THE ONE BENEFIT OF THIS FRONT IS IT WILL COOL THE AREA
BACK DOWN INTO THE 70S FOR HIGHS FOR A FEW DAYS BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

TREADWAY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY              70  88  70  85  67 /  30  30  40  60  30
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT  69  87  70  84  66 /  30  30  40  50  30
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT     69  88  71  85  67 /  20  20  40  50  40
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT            67  87  68  84  64 /  30  40  40  60  20
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT           69  90  68  88  64 /  10  20  50  30  30
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT        69  87  70  84  65 /  30  40  40  60  20
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT             70  88  71  85  66 /  20  20  40  40  50
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT        69  87  70  84  67 /  20  30  40  50  40
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL   70  87  72  85  69 /  30  30  30  50  40
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT       70  88  71  85  68 /  20  20  40  50  50
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT           71  88  71  85  69 /  20  20  40  40  50

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

MESOSCALE/AVIATION...76
SYNOPTIC/GRIDS...12
DATA COLLECTION/RADAR...26/15

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
611 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-231115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
611 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF
A LINE FROM FREDERICKSBURG TO KARNES CITY...AND ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE REMAINDER OF SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE A MODERATE CAP IN PLACE THAT WILL
PRECLUDE MOST STORM DEVELOPMENT BUT BE WEAKER OVER EASTERN
COUNTIES. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. TIMING OF THE THUNDERSTORM THREATS
IS MAINLY EXPECTED BETWEEN 2 PM AND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN THREATS
THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
148 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TXZ204-221930-
MEDINA TX-
148 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MEDINA COUNTY UNTIL
230 PM CDT...

AT 147 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
BIRY...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF DEVINE...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DEVINE...CASTROVILLE...MOORE...LYTLE...NATALIA...LACOSTE...PEARSON...
YANCEY...BIRY AND NOONAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2909 9912 2927 9916 2937 9880 2909 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1847Z 263DEG 32KT 2921 9905

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
202 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TXZ205-220-221945-
BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-
202 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN ATASCOSA AND BEXAR
COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 200 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR CROSS MOUNTAIN TO NEAR
SEA WORLD TO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BIGFOOT...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

POCKETS OF DIME SIZE HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL
ALSO BE A HAZARD AS THE LINE OF STORMS MOVES ACROSS THE CITY OF SAN
ANTONIO.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SAN ANTONIO...UNIVERSAL CITY...SCHERTZ...LIVE OAK...LEON VALLEY...
KIRBY...HELOTES...ALAMO HEIGHTS...FAIR OAKS RANCH...SELMA...
WINDCREST...TERRELL HILLS...HOLLYWOOD PARK...SHAVANO PARK...LYTLE...
OLMOS PARK...ST. HEDWIG...SOMERSET...ELMENDORF AND CHINA GROVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THESE STORMS MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2901 9880 2936 9878 2968 9880 2975 9865
      2974 9861 2976 9855 2971 9843 2975 9841
      2973 9835 2972 9834 2970 9838 2967 9838
      2965 9834 2962 9834 2954 9827 2955 9823
      2949 9819 2948 9812 2945 9812 2912 9840
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 246DEG 38KT 2964 9873 2939 9872 2910 9877

JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
220 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TXZ205-220-221-222000-
BEXAR TX-ATASCOSA TX-WILSON TX-
220 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN ATASCOSA...SOUTHERN
BEXAR AND SOUTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM CDT...

AT 220 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8
MILES NORTHWEST OF POTEET...MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...JOURDANTON...POTEET...POTH...LYTLE...
SOMERSET...ELMENDORF...CALAVERAS LAKE...LEMING...FAIRVIEW...
ROSSVILLE...SOUTHTON...CANADA VERDE...KYOTE...MITCHELL LAKE...IUKA...
ESPEY...AMPHION AND COUGHRAN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

THIS STORM MAY INTENSIFY...SO BE CERTAIN TO MONITOR LOCAL RADIO AND
TV STATIONS...AS WELL AS LOCAL CABLE TV OUTLETS...FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 2898 9880 2925 9878 2932 9825 2923 9804
      2899 9804 2888 9819 2887 9818 2886 9820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1920Z 270DEG 39KT 2910 9871

JA

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